Sunday, November 20, 2011

Huge win for Vision Vancouver, stinging defeat for NPA, council wipeout for COPE, first seat for Greens - all teach electoral lessons

Vision Vancouver election night party with re-elected Mayor Gregor Robertson & team
Wow!  What a fantastic, sweep - a capital V-Victory for Vision Vancouver and Mayor Gregor Robertson!

It is quite phenomenal to win every seat you contest in a municipal election at every level - and that's what Vision Vancouver did last night, winning mayor, 7 council seats, 5 school board seats and 4 park board seats - a majority on each body.

Congratulations to Gregor and all the re-elected and newly- elected VV councilors, school trustees and park board commissioners!  You have a mandate to be envied!

And I want to add a big congrats to the folks behind the scenes who worked so hard for so long for this Vision victory and don't get mentioned - Vision campaign manager Mike Magee - my friend and former Toronto housemate; Ian Baillie - Vision executive director; Strategic Communications and Vision pollster Bob Penner - another old friend from my Toronto days; Vision communications director Marcella Munro; communications officer Kevin Quinlan, staffers Lora Honrado, Rita Ko, Braeden Caley, Stepan Vodine, Carolyn Askew, Matt Smith and so many others - apologies to those I miss in this list. 

Sadly, the Coalition Of Progressive Electors - COPE, which I also supported, had a devastating evening, re-electing only Allan Wong on the Vancouver Board of Education.  I am particularly sorry to see the loss of Ellen Woodsworth on Council - although I understand mail-in votes have yet to be counted [not Advance Polls however] and a recount is expected with Ellen trailing by just 92 votes!

I am personally also sorry to lose two dedicated school trustees - Al Blakey and Jane Bouey of COPE - who have made real contributions to public service on behalf of students, parents, teachers and staff over many years - you will be missed.

The lesson for COPE is not completely clear but there is no question that the bitter comments of Tim Louis, who failed in his bid to return to Council, indicate yet another divisive debate will consume COPE in the year ahead.  I supported Tim despite some misgivings but many I spoke with simply could not. 

I do support something Vision and COPE agree on completely - the need for the provincial government to eliminate corporate and union financing in municipal elections - leaving personal donations the only source of funding.  This election, which likely cost $2 million plus for both Vision and the NPA, is evidence of the need for reform - something we also must demand on the provincial level to match federal restrictions on corporate and labour donations.

Congratulations - conditional on the final result - are due to Adriane Carr of the Vancouver Green Party, who won the 10th and last seat on Council - her first electoral victory in over 25 years of trying at the provincial and federal level!  Like Harry Rankin in the past, who lost 13 times before joining Vancouver City Council, persistence pays off.

I didn't support Adriane but I wish her well.  Now the Greens will be forced to put some content into what has been an "empty box" product for years - shiny and green with "new and improved" on the outside but nothing inside in terms of political record.

The Non-Partisan Association is no doubt feeling downcast today - but has some reason for modest self-congratulation when their situation is rationally analyzed.

I never felt Gregor Robertson could be challenged successfully as mayor, and certainly not by NPA Councilor Suzanne Anton.  But give Anton and campaign manager Norman Stowe credit for a tough-minded, expensive campaign and for exploiting the difficult Occupy Vancouver situation for all it was worth. 

If anyone doubts that negative attack ads work, the NPA proved that once again.

The NPA has doubled its council contingent without running a single incumbent nor any candidate whose name was a household word - no small accomplishment.  And for much of the night it appeared the NPA could have won 3 or even 4 seats, with Bill Yuen and Mike Klassen of the NPA-loving City Caucus blog - which may now shut down - finishing in 12th and 13th spot - just under 1,000 votes from making council.  And three other NPA challengers followed them as well.  The NPA is far from planning its funeral.

Occupy Vancouver was Robertson's biggest challenge and a lose-lose proposition - early intervention would hurt him with his base of support and potentially cause an Oakland-like violent riot; moving slowly hurt him with more centrist voters who wanted the encampment gone yesterday.  Robertson's decision to seek a court injunction and enforce fire and safety rules while supporting Occupy's right to free speech and ability to raise important issues was the correct one - as last night's results proved.

I will have lots more to say and detailed analysis of the results in my 24 hours/The Tyee column on Tuesday November 22 - which is always reproduced on this blog in its full length version - stay tuned!

And lastly, regardless of your politics or the results, thanks to everyone who put their name forward to serve their community in the municipal elections across BC.  It's not easy to do and you are to be congratulated.

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10 comments:

Bob Penner said...

Thanks for the mention Bill. One key member of the core campaign team you missed was Matt Smith, our voter contact manager, running the most sophisticated contact campaign I've seen in a progressive campaign in Canada. That made big difference to our success too.

Bill Tieleman said...

Thanks Bob - rightly now corrected.

Anonymous said...

As you wrote in this article: "I do support something Vision and COPE agree on completely - the need for the provincial government to eliminate corporate and union financing in municipal elections - leaving personal donations the only source of funding. This election, which likely cost $2 million plus for both Vision and the NPA, is evidence of the need for reform - something we also must demand on the provincial level to match federal restrictions on corporate and labour donations".

This was questioned at some of the debates, including one I was at in the West End that only had mayoral candidates Susanne Anton and Gregor Robertson at. The answer is, much the same as yours, "well we would like to see corporate and union financing of elections change, we have brought this to the provincial gov't,blah blah, we are working with them, etc." Oh right!!, (typical line when asked this) and just how much are they bugging the provincial gov't about this hardship (I mean when you see how well Vision and then NPA did by allowing huge developer $$) -AND- just how much to do you think the provincial and federal govt's are working hard to have this stop? Ha Ha - what a joke.

Tim is correct in his comments. Tim is just the first to say it and isn't in some denial. I think the sad fact of COPE aligning themselves with Vision will eventually sink in with Ellen W, Jane B, and the rest also, but there's usually the shock factor that has to wear off first. But you are correct in that COPE is going to have to look at this (certainly Vision isn't all that worried - I mean they're in). That's just it, the whole Vision/COPE campaign (although COPE had a separate campaign office - this isn't to say the volunteers didn't work extremely hard) has been Vision first (oh, and by the way, then there's COPE - try not to forget about them.
But .. I am aware that there isn't just one factor involved -- there's a number of factors. Good luck to all those concerned who are going to have to take a hard look at all this.

DPL said...

Now is the time to start working, once again for wards. Congrats to Gregor and his team. It seems a lot of people feel he and his Vision council mates are on the right track for the city.
Here in the little town of Victoria the mayor lost three of his council, but I doubt many are shedding tears.

Anonymous said...

Bill your analysis of Tim Louis is correct. In many ways his negativity caught up to him. I think that when Tim pushed David Cadman out of the way so he could promote himself was once again a sign that Tim is only about Tim.

Tim's very low personal turn-out last night was a reminder that people want to elect politicians that work on solutions, and not an angry voice that does not believe in sitting down and finding a good compromise for our community.

You are correct, over the next year (and probably 4 months before the next election) Tim will resurface and blame everybody else. I suggest he invest in a mirror and begin looking at his own contribution to this defeat.

Susanna said...

"I do support something Vision and COPE agree on completely - the need for the provincial government to eliminate corporate and union financing in municipal elections - leaving personal donations the only source of funding. This election, which likely cost $2 million plus for both Vision and the NPA, is evidence of the need for reform - something we also must demand on the provincial level to match federal restrictions on corporate and labour donations."

I cheered when I read this comment Bill, I agree one hundred percent!

Anonymous said...

It wasn't tabled, but Toronto style amalgamation will likely be posed by Clark, with Robertson formally embracing the Libs. Amalgamation means: huge wages for integrated department heads.

How will Occupy Vancouver end? Last week, police sources mentioned that "ultraviolet" heat-measure devices recorded indications of only "25" persons who actually slept overnight in the camp. In my observation, at least 150 attend by day. Ergo: it would make law enforcement sense to dismantle by night. However, that would prevent a photo opportunity that Clark could use in her Provincial campaign. Prediction: media will be warned - as in the Glen Clark atrocity - and a brutal disoccupation will take place when there is a maximum of daylight.

Anonymous said...

Off topic but related - just found these films about just how level the playing field is:

http://metanoia-films.org/index.php

Anonymous said...

Do muni elections foreshadow provincial results?

Anonymous said...

Too much on one side. Lopsided. Would have liked to have seen 4 NPA candidates will to effect a good opposition.