|Adrian Dix in Victoria during election campaign - Cassandra photo|
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
From the Bad Beginning to the Slippery Slope to the Penultimate Peril and The End - the BC NDP election story makes for grim reading
Tuesday May 21, 2013
By Bill Tieleman
"I'm sorry to say that the book you are holding in your hands is extremely unpleasant... It is my sad duty to write down these unpleasant tales but there is nothing stopping you from putting this book down at once and reading something happy, if you prefer that sort of thing."
- Lemony Snicket, A Series of Unfortunate Events
The BC New Democrat campaign that led to last week's stunning reversal of fortune by Premier Christy Clark is A Series of Unfortunate Events with politically tragic consequences.
Like the series of books about the "intelligent, charming and resourceful" Baudelaire youngsters, the BC NDP seems cursed with endlessly repeating bad luck -- the evil Count Olaf returns just as things appear brightest.
How the NDP's 17 per cent lead in public polling as the election started, with 61 per cent of voters wanting a change in government and 63 per cent disapproving of Clark's performance, dramatically turned into an increased BC Liberal fourth term is a sad tale for New Democrats.
There were three strategic NDP campaign errors, in retrospect: rejecting negative advertising; reversing position to oppose the Kinder Morgan oil pipeline and failing to conduct appropriate campaign polling.
And with BC Liberals frantically spinning stories designed to make Clark look more like the "people's premier" than the reality -- voters' reluctant choice -- it's important to look at all the facts.
Book the First: The Bad Beginning
BC NDP leader Adrian Dix said a year before the election campaign that his party would not engage in negative attack ads despite the BC Liberals and supporters vicious campaign targeting him.
"In the last seven months, the Liberal party and its allies have spent between $2 and $3 million on running personal attack ads against, well, me," Dix told supporters in Parksville last May.
"A lot of people think the way to respond to negative ads is to run negative ads ourselves," Dix argued. "The reason we are not going to do this is very simple."
"First, 1.7 million people didn't vote in the last provincial election. We are not going to bring anybody back to politics by deciding the winner of an election is the person with the best ad agency to run the nastiest negative ads. We need to bring people back to politics and that means offering some hope that change will happen," Dix said.
Despite my own political experience that negative advertising works even though people say they hate it, I reluctantly accepted that Dix might well be right. I even outlined some political research backing those views -- but we were both dead wrong.
And the campaign managed by veteran Ontario New Democrat Brian Topp, one of the architects of late NDP leader Jack Layton's success, stayed positive until almost the end.
And not only did 1.7 million voters stay home again, but the BC NDP, the BC Liberals and even the Green Party all dropped in both popular vote and actual ballots cast for them.
The BC Liberals dropped to 44.4 per cent from 45.8 per cent in 2009, the NDP to 39.5 per cent from 42.1 per cent and the Greens to 8 per cent from 8.2 per cent. All three parties dropped in votes in initial Elections BC counts, the BC Liberals by 28,000, the NDP by 48,000 and the Greens by 4,100.
Only the BC Conservatives increased their tallies, more than doubling their popular vote to 4.8 per cent from 2.1 per cent -- due to more than doubling their candidates to 56 in 2013 versus 24 in 2009.
That leaves the BC Liberals with 50 seats, up five from dissolution, the NDP at 33, down three and the Greens with their first ever B.C. seat, Andrew Weaver in Oak Bay-Gordon Head, while the BC Conservatives were shut out.
The Bad Beginning for the NDP was to conclude that because the BC Liberal and Concerned Citizens for B.C. group led by ex-Clark advisor and corporate CEO Jim Shepard had spent millions unsuccessfully attacking Dix without affecting his good polling in the year before the election that negative advertising wouldn't work for either side in 2013.
Without strongly defining the BC Liberals and Clark as a government that urgently needed to be terminated by voters for an incredibly long list of sins, the NDP couldn't make the winning case for change.
That allowed the BC Liberals to successfully argue that the BC NDP slogan of "change for the better" would actually amount to change for the worse -- and they did that with a vengeance.
Their advertising and Clark's every appearance was a tightly scripted message box focused on the alleged mayhem Dix's NDP would inflict on B.C. jobs and the economy.
The BC Liberals own prescription was patently absurd: a balanced budget that bond rating agencies rejected; elimination of debt in 15 years through revenue from non-existent liquefied natural gas plants; and "controlled spending" from a premier that increased B.C.'s debt by $11 billion in just two years.
But all said with a very pleasant smile and the professional conviction of someone selling soap on television.
At the same time, the NDP were talking about increasing taxes to pay for skills training -- did its pre-campaign polling show that was a winner?
And what happened to health care and education in this campaign -- the two strongest cards in the NDP hand against the BC Liberals?
Book the Tenth: The Slippery Slope
On Earth Day, April 22, Dix made a major announcement: an NDP government would reject the proposed twinning of the Kinder Morgan pipeline to Burnaby to transport crude oil from Alberta to Vancouver for oil tanker shipment overseas.
This after previously stating several times, including on April 11 on the Voice Of B.C. television show, that the NDP would not take a position on the controversial issue despite the party already opposing the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline proposal.
"They haven't actually made an application," Dix told host Vaughn Palmer of the Vancouver Sun. "I think as a matter of principle, you should actually see what the application is before you address it."
Then came the slippery slope.
Dix's decision was the result of an intense lobbying effort by environmentalists, NDP MLAs and candidates convinced it was the morally right thing to do -- and politically advantageous as well to head off the Green Party, which was campaigning hard in Victoria and Vancouver on its own absolute opposition to both pipelines.
There was also concern that massive protests against Kinder Morgan would turn B.C. into another environmental battleground, to the province's detriment.
But in retrospect, the Kinder Morgan "surprise" was likely the pivotal event of the entire campaign, an opinion I unusually share with former federal Conservative cabinet minister Chuck Strahl.
"But the turning point in the election was when Clark crystallized the connection between her party and jobs and the economy. The momentum shifted," Strahl wrote in The Globe and Mail May 16.
First, it appeared to validate for many undecided and soft-NDP voters BC Liberal claims that the NDP was "anti-jobs" and would damage the economy, even though Clark herself never said that Kinder Morgan would proceed either, unless it met all five of her conditions, one of which -- royalty payments -- Alberta had already rejected.
Secondly, it may have confirmed BC Liberal attacks that an NDP government under Dix would "flip-flop" on important issues.
And despite massive evidence that the BC Liberals had repeatedly done the same on the Harmonized Sales Tax, balanced budgets, selling BC Rail and much more, the NDP's rejection of negative advertising on those important issues during the campaign and before left it vulnerable to being the only party seen as "flip-flopping."
Thirdly, it alienated what now seems to be a significant number of blue-collar workers who support the construction of pipelines and the extraction of natural resources. (Disclosure: some of my clients represent or employ construction and resource industry workers.)
It was no accident that Clark continually appeared on television during the campaign wearing a hard hat and safety vest in private sector workplaces. Dix by contrast was almost always in a suit and tie.
The BC Liberals knew those workers and their families are be concentrated in key swing ridings like Kamloops-North Thompson, which Environment Minister Terry Lake had won by just 510 votes in 2009 but increased that to a 2,818 margin in 2013.
Kamloops-North Thompson also has an amazing political record: the party that wins this bellwether seat has formed government since party politics were introduced to B.C.
But the NDP's Kinder Morgan rejection was also likely a factor in other resource-based ridings like Fraser-Nicola, where veteran NDP MLA Harry Lali was surprisingly defeated by 754 votes and even in suburban ridings with blue-collar private sector workers.
The NDP's three-term incumbent Jagrup Brar lost in Surrey-Fleetwood to Langley City Mayor Peter Fassbender by just 265 votes, Joe Trasolini lost by 543 votes the Port Moody-Coquitlam NDP seat he had won in the by-election upset of April 2012, as did Gwen O'Mahoney in Chilliwack-Hope.
The NDP also narrowly lost seats it previously held where sitting MLAs retired and were replaced by newcomers: in Delta North, Coquitlam-Maillardville and Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows.
However, the NDP's Kinder Morgan opposition may also have created upset narrow victories over the BC Liberals for the party's David Eby in Vancouver-Point Grey, George Heyman in Vancouver-Fairview, Jane Shin in Burnaby-Lougheed and Gary Holman in Saanich North and the Islands, where pipeline opposition was strong.
But would some or all of them have won anyway without the NDP changing its position on Kinder Morgan?
Certainly picking up several seats in an election where the NDP overall lost ground is unusual.
But ultimately the NDP needed to gain a minimum of seven new seats to form a majority of 43 in the B.C. Legislature and it lost three, likely on a slippery slope coated in oil politics.
And in several ridings like Fraser-Nicola, the Green Party vote easily exceeded the NDP margin of loss; in Lali's case, for example, the Green's took 1,174 votes despite the NDP promising to kill not one but two oil pipelines.
Overall it may be less the case that the Greens split the vote so much as that environmentalists could not deliver Green-leaning supporters to the NDP despite the Kinder Morgan move.
And indeed I received an email after the election complaining that the BC NDP had not taken a strong position on fish farms and saving wild salmon compared to the Greens.
Noted activist Alexandra Morton only called for an NDP vote the day before the election, a message many would not have heard.
Certainly an analysis by The Tyee of the impact of Green voters indicates that it is unlikely more than three seats were arguably "lost" to the NDP in this election.
One of the most troubling issues for both parties will be to re-examine if a significant number of British Columbia voters truly do see election choices as jobs versus the environment.
Book the Twelfth: The Penultimate Peril
The next to final chapter of the Lemony Snicket series brings our heroes to the Hotel Denouement -- an appropriate description of the NDP campaign's final destination.
What is now abundantly clear is that the NDP was not conducting rolling polls throughout the election in key swing ridings to pick up trends and adjust the campaign accordingly, as the BC Liberals were.
In fact, the NDP disconcertingly switched polling firms during the campaign -- and instead relied solely on internal province-wide surveys to guide them.
Even worse, when those internally polls did show a tightening race and potentially serious trouble for the NDP during the campaign, when there was still time to change course, attack hard and salvage an election win, the response was muted and ineffective.
To be fair, the fact that external polling for media outlets did not pick up anything beyond a measurable but not dramatic tightening of the race, added to the NDP's lack of panic.
In the final 10 days the party responded with a tougher message and a new round of TV and other ads criticizing the BC Liberal record.
But the ads were clearly put together at the last minute, featuring only text-based headlines about the HST, B.C. Rail and the "quick wins" scandal -- a reference that only political junkies could decipher.
There were no photos of Christy Clark and Gordon Campbell, no reminder of the 12-year record of BC Liberal government failures, increase in debt, loss of jobs and promise of even more of the same.
With the BC Liberals gaining steam daily towards an election victory, the NDP response was tepid when a full frontal assault was the only chance left to win.
The BC Liberal campaign team's self-aggrandizement effort in recent days claims that only they knew from key riding polls that Clark could succeed.
The reality is that the NDP campaign forfeited its last chance to change the course of the election before it was too late. They had already checked into the Hotel Denouement.
Book the Thirteenth: The End
The BC NDP has a problem even more damning than losing a 17 per cent lead in a 28-day election campaign and facing at least four more years in opposition.
The party is on a downward trend that changing leaders and campaign managers has failed to arrest.
Its actual votes have steadily dropped from an all-time high of 824,544 in 1986, ironically when NDP leader Bob Skelly lost to Social Credit Premier Bill Vander Zalm in what has been seen as the party's worst campaign, to 643,399 in 2013 under Dix.
From NDP leaders Bob Strachan in the 1960s to Tom Berger to Dave Barrett to Mike Harcourt to Glen Clark to Ujjal Dosanjh to Carole James to Adrian Dix, Skelly's vote total amazingly stands as the high water mark.
It is also a testament to the power of attack advertising, as after Skelly's disastrous start to the campaign, the NDP went highly negative on Vander Zalm and brought its popular vote up to 42.6 per cent versus Social Credit's 49.3 per cent.
The NDP looked good after winning the 1991 election under Mike Harcourt and the surprise 1996 election victory under Glen Clark (when I was communications director in the premier's office).
But the NDP was devastated in 2001 after Ujjal Dosanjh took over from interim premier Dan Miller, who filled in after Clark was forced to resign.
Dropping from 39 seats to just two after Gordon Campbell won an astonishing 77 was earth shattering for the NDP.
Under new leader Carole James, the NDP rebounded in 2005 to 33 seats and 41.5 per cent of the vote, a return to its traditional strength. But Campbell won 46 seats and 45.8 per cent to hold power.
The 2009 election saw little change, with Campbell winning 49 seats and James 35 and the NDP trailing just before and throughout the entire campaign.
Internal NDP caucus dissent led to James' resignation and Dix became leader in 2011, following similar discontent in the BC Liberals over the HST that led to Campbell's resignation and Clark's ascent.
Dix built a significant lead over Clark in consistent polling starting in March 2011 and was 17 per cent ahead to start the 2013 election.
But then A Serious of Unfortunate Events destroyed that hard-won advantage.
There are many other lessons to be learned or relearned for New Democrats in the years ahead.
A few points are already clear.
Negative advertising is here to stay, in B.C. and across Canada. There will be no more attempts to run positive campaigns by any party, anywhere.
Declining voter turnout hurts democracy overall but it damages the NDP more than its right-wing opponents.
Scandals rarely defeat governments and don't motivate voters, their own circumstances do. If not, Campbell would have lost in 2005 and 2009 and Clark in 2013.
When voters are pushed to a forced choice between honesty and exceedingly unrealistic optimism, they will take the latter even if not convinced.
And if voters have to pick between a positive change of government and a threat of a negative change in the economy and jobs, they will fearfully avoid perceived risk.
There's one thing that even flawed polling makes clear: voters chose the BC Liberals in spite of -- not because of -- Premier Christy Clark.
Even if publicly released horse race numbers were wrong just a day before the election, that does not mean Clark's 58 per cent disapproval rating or the 58 per cent of those polled who wanted a different government dramatically reversed themselves.
No, the truth that the BC Liberal party hierarchy wants to hide is that voters picked Clark despite their disapproval of her performance, not because they changed their minds about her attributes.
That fact may make for an exceptional short honeymoon for B.C.'s first elected woman premier. But Clark's 28-day campaign has given her four years to try and convince voters they made the right choice.
Adrian Dix faces a much tougher test after losing an election nearly everyone expected him to win.
But those who are angry and resentful now have to recognize that no one complained when Dix made endless tours of the province to rally support for the last two years, mending a divisive party.
No one faulted Dix as he raised record amounts of money and surprising support from the corporate sector for the NDP.
And nary a word of internal criticism was heard when he outlined modest but achievable plans for a future NDP government and led an exceedingly effective opposition in the B.C. Legislature.
Indeed, everyone I spoke with in the party and beyond was incredibly impressed with his intelligence, work ethic and ability to speak powerfully, at length and without notes everywhere he went.
I also didn't see a series of columns saying Dix was doing it all wrong -- just the opposite. And I wasn't hearing private concerns in those two years, in fact not until a few NDP veterans uninvolved in the central campaign contacted me toward the end of the election, worried correctly then as it turned out.
If Dix did something truly wrong, sadly it was in appealing to us to believe in people's better nature.
That was based on his polling numbers surviving right through some of the most vicious personal attacks Canada has ever seen, frustrating BC Liberal strategists and convincing some in Clark's party that she had to go as leader. And it was also based on Dix's own personal beliefs.
But the BC Liberals' faith in fear was ultimately rewarded during the campaign.
The NDP did, however, do something that proved a huge mistake: it left enormous, election-changing strategy decisions up to a small group of people: Dix, Topp and some senior caucus and party staff.
Those decisions have left Dix a disheartened opposition leader instead of B.C's new premier.
But the NDP must also face tough facts that go well beyond its leader and its disastrous campaign if it truly wants to compete for power in 2017.
There will be no easy answers and no quick solutions to a series of unfortunate events.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
BC NDP flailed instead of fighting back against vicious BC Liberal attack - and lost the election during the campaign
|Premier Christy Clark after TV leaders debate|
Wednesday May 15, 2013
By Bill Tieleman
"Politics determine who has the power, not who has the truth."
- Economist Paul Krugman
Tuesday night’s victory by Premier Christy Clark and the BC Liberals will go down in British Columbia political history as one of the biggest upset victories ever.
Unfortunately, it will also go into the books as a triumph of fear over hope, of choosing incredibly negative, personal attack ads over policy and vision, and a revolting example that using taxpayer dollars to advertise your own party cause works.
Bitter? You bet.
Not because the BC Liberals won – political opponents have to accept that sometimes the other team had a superior campaign than your own, more ideas, a more effective leader or just did a better job.
No, bitterness comes only when the other team plays dirty and never faces the penalty they should – to lose the game.
That’s what happened in this election.
Clark’s team ran the most right-wing, Republican-style campaign Canada has ever seen.
The BC Liberals were relentlessly nasty, using wealthy allies to air slurs against BC NDP Leader Adrian Dix, while spending voters’ own money to promote the party with a collection of demonstrably false claims about B.C.’s budget, job creation and debt.
And yet, it worked.
For that, the BC NDP must bear its own share of the blame.
It allowed a 20-point lead to disappear in a failed campaign that flailed instead of fighting back.
Despite the Harmonized Sales Tax betrayal, the BC Rail scandal and Clark being one of the most unpopular premiers in Canada, the NDP blew it.
And now B.C. will suffer the consequences of electing a leader who is more vicious than visionary.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Bill Tieleman on CTV TV for BC Election coverage from 8 p.m. till closing time! Joining anchors Mike Killeen, Tamara Taggart, ex-BC Liberal MLA Lorne Mayencourt, pollster Mario Canseco
Tune in to CTV TV in British Columbia tonight for your BC Election coverage!
I will be joining news anchors Mike Killeen and Tamara Taggart along with my BC Liberal counterpart Lorne Mayencourt - former MLA, all above, along with Angus Reid Public Opinion pollster Mario Canseco and the great CTV News team in studio and across the province for excellent election coverage!
Hope you watch - on Channel 9 in Metro Vancouver.
I will also be on CTV Morning with Lorne at 7:10 a.m. Wednesday to talk results.
|Tamara Taggart, Bill Tieleman, Mike Killeen and Lorne Mayencourt on set of CTV News Election special run-through . NOTE - Mary Polak photo as elected part of practice!|
Hope you watch - on Channel 9 in Metro Vancouver.
I will also be on CTV Morning with Lorne at 7:10 a.m. Wednesday to talk results.
Saturday, May 11, 2013
The BC Liberal Party raised more than $300,000 from liquor businesses in a single day in 2010
|Rich Coleman, BC Liberal Liquor Minister - TV screen shot|
By Bill Tieleman and Jeremy Nuttall
24 hours Vancouver exclusive
Thursday, May 9, 2013
The BC Liberal Party raised more than $300,000 from liquor businesses in a single day in 2010 just weeks before the provincial government introduced substantial changes to the LiquorControl and Licensing Act, a 24 Hours Vancouver investigation has found
The changes included a section that “allows inducements for the sale of liquor subject to regulations or a direction of the general manager” by liquor manufacturers to liquor licensees, according to notes explaining the legislation.
Elections BC financial disclosure records show that on March 24, 2010, the BC Liberal Party received at least 12 liquor business donations of $15,000 each, plus a $25,000 contribution from the Alliance of Beverage Licensees of BC.
Independent liquor industry sources told 24 Hours the BC Liberal Party held an event March 24, 2010, at which liquor industry officials each paid $15,000 to meet with then-premier Gordon Campbell and Rich Coleman, the minister responsible for liquor distribution, over lunch at Gotham Steakhouse in Vancouver to discuss industry liquor issues.
|Former Premier Gordon Campbell|
The records also show dozens of smaller liquor business donations, for a total of $302,500 on that day.
ABLE BC’s executive director at that time was Kim Haakstad, who later became Premier Christy Clark’s deputy chief of staff before resigning over the ethnic outreach memo scandal.
Three current ABLE BC directors, Dave Crown, Mariana Fiddler and Roger Gibson, are listed as officers in the 2010 donor list.
The fundraising event occurred five days before the government reached a new contract with the BC Government and Service Employees Union, which represents public liquor story workers.
BCGEU spokesperson David Vipond told 24 Hours Thursday that government liquor store hours were reduced and new stores were not opened as planned between 2010 and 2012.
“This reduction of hours was to the benefit of private stores,” Vipond said, adding liquor industry contributions are “of concern” to the BCGEU, which supports banning corporate and union political donations.
In the B.C. Legislature on June 1, 2010, independent MLA Vicki Huntington questioned liquor legislation amendments she said were “curious” because they allowed "inducements for the sale of liquor subject to regulations."
Coleman responded on June 1, 2010, that: "This is really removing something that is somewhat arcane in our ability to enforce and manage the operation of liquor in British Columbia … The historical reasons for the policy are no longer very applicable.”
Neither the BC Liberals or ABLE answered questions about the donations by deadline Thursday.
Tuesday, May 07, 2013
The BC Liberals made a big error choosing Christy Clark as their leader – voters shouldn’t make the same mistake
|BC Premier Christy Clark - trust me!|
Tuesday May 7, 2013
By Bill Tieleman
"We've got tankers going up and down the St. Lawrence for heaven's sake. I don't know why we'd ban them necessarily off the west coast."
- Christy Clark, Feb. 24, 2011.
If you liked how the BC Liberals betrayed voters by imposing the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) after the 2009 provincial election, you'll love what they will probably do with bitumen oil pipelines if they win again in 2013!
Premier Christy Clark's position on the Enbridge Northern Gateway and Kinder Morgan pipeline proposals from Alberta is short and anything but clear: "Trust me!"
This from a leader whose party told voters it had "no plans" to bring in the HST -- and then did exactly that mere weeks after the election.
The BC Liberals said in writing to homebuilder and restaurant owner groups who were worried -- and asked about an HST -- not to worry.
Then after the 2009 election, their financial throats were slit when the HST was brought in!
So in this election, why would voters be suckers once again and reward Christy Clark's party for breaking trust?
And Clark herself had a clear choice when she became premier: she could have scrapped the HST and saved British Columbia an enormous amount of time, trouble and money.
Instead Clark led the government's expensive pro-HST campaign against the grassroots group Fight HST, which I helped form with ex-Social Credit premier Bill Vander Zalm, that forced Canada's first ever citizens Initiative vote on the tax.
|Bill Tieleman and former BC Premier Bill Vander Zalm|
during Fight HST campaign
Even after 705,000 people signed the Initiative petition, Clark spent $6 million taxpayer dollars on HST advertising.
And Clark removed financial disclosure regulations in the binding referendum, so we will never know how many additional millions the big business coalition spent.
Whether you were against or for the HST, it was clearly a political betrayal of trust.
And now in this election whether you are against or for the Enbridge and Kinder Morgan pipeline projects, can you trust the BC Liberals?
Clark plays both sides
Why won't Clark commit to being either against the pipelines, like New Democrat Leader Adrian Dix and Green Party Leader Jane Sterk, or in favour, like BC Conservative Leader John Cummins?
Then look at her comments on the record -- on both sides of the issue.
Clark said during the BC Liberal leadership campaign that oil tankers travelling our ecologically sensitive coastline were no problem:
"We've got tankers going up and down the St. Lawrence for heaven's sake. I don't know why we'd ban them necessarily off the West Coast. I think that's a step too far, way too soon," Clark said in February 2011. "Let's not foreclose our options here before we even decide whether or not the Enbridge pipeline is going to be built."
But later Clark said she had five conditions that must be met before B.C. would agree to the Enbridge pipeline, including that the province get "a fair share of the fiscal and economic benefits".
And that proponents provide: "World-leading marine oil spill response, prevention and recovery systems for B.C.'s coastline and ocean to manage and mitigate the risks and costs of heavy oil pipelines and shipments...."
Who would interpret whether all the conditions were met on oil pipelines after the election? Christy Clark -- trust me!
Voting NDP carries power to stop pipelines
For anti-pipeline voters this election offers a critical choice -- because only one opposition party can form a government -- the New Democrats, not the Green Party.
And both the Enbridge and Kinder Morgan pipeline decisions will be made in the next four years by whoever is elected May 14.
That means those considering voting Green have a tough choice.
That's especially true in closely fought ridings like Vancouver-Point Grey -- where Clark faces NDP candidate David Eby, who nearly defeated her in the 2011 by-election and could do so this time.
Voting for your beliefs is important but so is considering the consequences for the province if the BC Liberals are narrowly re-elected and have the power to approve both Enbridge and Kinder Morgan.
That makes this election environmentally time sensitive.
But whether it's oil pipelines, B.C's $11 billion debt increase in just two years, job losses or claims this year's budget is "balanced," it's abundantly clear the BC Liberals made a big mistake when they chose Christy Clark as their new leader.
Voters should not make the same mistake on May 14.