Saturday, November 01, 2008

Advice for Gregor Robertson & Peter Ladner - how each can win & vulnerabilities

24 hours newspaper has set up an election blog for the November 15 province-wide municipal vote.

Here's the first installment on the Vancouver city mayoralty election contest - advice to Non-Partisan Association candidate Peter Ladner and Vision Vancouver candidate Gregor Robertson, printed in 24 hours Friday, followed by my additional advice on the 24 hours blog:

You can also find the advice my 24 hours columnist colleagues Erin Airton, Alex Tsakumis and Ian King gave to Robertson and Ladner on the blog.

Free advice for Peter, Gregor

By Bill Tieleman, 24 hours columnist

Non-Partisan Association mayoralty candidate Peter Ladner wins if …

...the Vancouver election turnout is low due to voter fatigue or just disinterest.

The NPA is one of Canada’s most successful political parties because Vancouver doesn’t have a ward or constituency system and because the wealthier part of town votes in disproportionately higher numbers than the rest of the city.

That means a low turnout is the NPA’s big advantage.

Ladner also wins if voters really don’t care about homelessness or think he and the NPA have done enough about it for a city government and believe it is instead a provincial and federal responsibility.

Vision Vancouver mayoralty candidate Gregor Robertson wins if …

...the election turnout is moderate to high and voters are fed up with increasing homelessness and an NPA government that doesn’t seem to be able to make any progress on the city’s biggest issue.

The mayoralty nomination race between Robertson and Coun. Raymond Louie and a hotly contested council nomination race made Vision the largest civic party in Canada with 16,000 members.

And a recent debate on homelessness drew 1,000 citizens. That may indicate voters are motivated for change and that Robertson’s plan to end homelessness by 2015 – however difficult – is what they want.

From 24 hours municipal election blog:

Peter Ladner’s biggest vulnerability is .....

.....the NPA government’s record over the past three years because of a lack of accomplishments.

Gregor Robertson’s uses a telling attack in debates – “Is Vancouver better off after three years of NPA rule?” Homelessness is demonstrably worse, the Project Civil City brainchild of Mayor Sam Sullivan has no discernable results and Ladner himself successfully challenged Sullivan for the NPA nomination because the party was “headed for the rocks.”

Ladner also has to avoid the mixed messages he started with, saying that first homelessness and then later that crime was Vancouver’s biggest issue.

Gregor Robertson’s biggest vulnerability is.....

.....his recent background as a New Democratic Party MLA for Vancouver-Fairview, because Peter Ladner has repeatedly said a former NDP MLA can’t work cooperatively with the Gordon Campbell B.C. Liberal government or the Stephen Harper federal Conservative government.

If that convinces voters, Ladner’s studied avoidance of direct federal or provincial party support could be an advantage

Robertson also has to stop a tendency to muse about contentious policy issues in public, such as considering a bicycle lane on the Granville Street bridge. Candidates who muse, lose.


Gary E said...

I don't think that cooperation with the Provincial and Federal governments would be an issue. The people of Vancouver are too smart for that spin. Remember back in the 80's when Mike Harcourt beat back Bennett Junior and successfully had Expo 86 held in Vancouver without added costs (taxes and levies) to the people of Vancouver? He plain told the government that it would not happen if it cost Vancouver anything.

Anonymous said...

Bill, your advice to gregor about bike lanes is pretty good. The noon news talked a lot about the two contenders and the bike issues.
If folks on bikes can't drive on a divided sidewalk and leave the other part to walkers, it's time to do some policing of the bridge. Mind you my wife got ticketed for pedalling over the upper levels brige sidewalk, in Edmonton years ago , no other person on the brige. A cop told her dangerous it was and she paid the ticket.
There is lots of big issues to argue about so lets all get serious.

Anonymous said...

This evening the TV is fixated on Gregors big ticket for riding two zones on a one zone ticket. His opposition was talking about it on their sign line. Mind you the bike lane is hot stuff as well. Gorw up vancouver, there are bigger things to discuss. No wonder so many people don't chose to vote in Municipal elections.
Bernice Girard left this place. Wreck beac became a safer place after her trip down there, years aog. Now there was a real prize as a NPA person. The clip showed Seico Jack as well. How soon voters forget the sleezey ones.
Gregor pay the bloody ticket and shut up about bike lanes for awhile