Vancouver Council motion Wednesday gives homeowners and small businesses affordability and choice on energy instead of costly and unavoidable expenses in Canada’s most unaffordable city

By Bill Tieleman

Director, the BC Coalition for Affordable Dependable Energy [BC CADE] 

It’s about choice and it’s about affordability for homeowners and small businesses. 

Vancouver City Council will vote Wednesday May 20 on a critical motion introduced by Mayor Ken Sim that will end the imposition of expensive and ineffective measures to heat your home or business and restore choice.  [You can send comments or request to speak to Council until 5 p.m. Tuesday May 19 at this link.]  

 

That motion is strongly supported by the BC Coalition for Affordable Dependable Energy, one of BC’s largest coalitions, representing over 300,000 people through its business, labour and community organization members.

  

Why?  It’s because of three key changes to existing by-laws and regulations that together are adding significant extra costs to building and operating homes and businesses in Vancouver – the most expensive city in Canada and one of the most expensive in North America. 

Most immediately, the motion would repeal a by-law that forces all single-family and townhouse homeowners to replace existing natural gas water heaters with electric water heaters when new equipment is needed, as of January 1, 2027. 

That would mean substantial extra costs for homeowners and renters, because the purchase and installation of electric water heaters and their ongoing operation is far more expensive than simply replacing gas water heaters with newer and more efficient models. 

In fact, current gas water heaters are up to 98 per cent efficient – but that’s not allowed under the by-law that could be repealed on Wednesday – 100 per cent or nothing. 

Imposing replacement of a gas water heater with an electric model in many cases would require re-wiring a home, drywall removal and replacement, repainting and possibly a whole new electrical panel – at a cost of $4,000 to $10,000, according to heating and plumbing experts – on top of the equipment costs!  There are limited exemptions that require applying to the city - exemptions that are not guaranteed to be granted. 

And natural gas water heaters are significantly cheaper than electric, at 4.5 cents a kWh [kilowatt/hour] for natural gas versus 12 to 14 cents a kWh for electric. 

Our Coalition believes in choice on energy source – those who want to go electric, from builders and developers to homeowners and businesses – should have that right, but so should those who can’t afford expensive options that make little to no overall difference to our global environment.   

It’s wrong for any city council to impose electrification at a time of global economic turmoil and rising costs, threats to our energy security and sovereignty and when both British Columbia and Canada have ended the consumer carbon tax while net electricity imports to this province top $2 billion – including much from the United States – and BC Hydro rates keep rising. 

Unfortunately, Vancouver’s own report admits that the city’s limited public engagement over only three weeks reached just over 120 people – while admitting that approximately 70,000 one and two family homes will be affected and that gas hot water heaters last  12-15 years or less before needed replacement.  That means nearly 5,000 homes per year will face this very pricey expense. 

The other two measures this motion addresses are also important – removing an expensive and ineffective imposition of regulations forcing strata condominiums to produce annual reports on their use of energy while imposing substantial fines for existing large office and retail buildings starting next year and ending an effective ban on renewable natural gas and natural gas heating in all new construction, for both homes and businesses, through early adoption of the provincial Zero Carbon Step Code. 

Together, these two changes would save strata owners, businesses and tenants in Vancouver millions of dollars in costly bureaucracy and allow choice and enormous construction and operating cost savings on energy source to builders, developers, homeowners and businesses.

Unsurprisingly, some supporters of forced electrification are angry.  And if city councillors want to maintain this ban, they should face homeowners and businesses to explain why – at a time the federal and B.C. governments are fast-tracking exports of natural gas. 

But the simpler question is this: if claims that electric options are cheaper and better, why are imposition advocates afraid of giving homeowners, businesses and builders a choice?  

The answer is obvious. 

Let’s be clear – the Coalition believes we can and will transition over time to renewable energy sources.  It just should not be done on the backs of homeowners and small businesses that can ill afford expensive measures and on an imposed timetable that threatens jobs and our economy.  Vancouver Council should pass this motion.  

Bill Tieleman is Director of the BC Coalition for Affordable Dependable Energy.   Website: www.BCCADE.ca

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Avi Lewis needs to answer very hard questions if he wants to be federal NDP leader

Does Avi Lewis want to be the federal NDP leader - or leader of the federal Greens?

It's a question federal New Democratic Party members should be asking - because there are lots of signs Avi Lewis is actually campaigning to be Green Party leader - or turn the NDP into another Green Party. 

We've seen this movie before, when Avi Lewis, partner Naomi Klein and others dragged a Trojan Horse called the Leap Manifesto inside the walls of the NDP - and nearly destroyed the party. 

That's why - before the federal NDP holds its leadership vote and balloting starts March 9 through March 28 - candidate Avi Lewis should answer these 5 very hard questions about his allegiance to the NDP and his intentions if elected leader:

 

1)  Why did Avi Lewis appear to endorse BC Green Party leadership candidate Emily Lowan, now Green leader?  

Why did Avi Lewis appear to endorse Emily Lowan, the new leader of the British Columbia Green Party, in this video on her "Emily Lowan for BC Greens Leader" Facebook page?  In this still from the video - still online - Avi Lewis is clearly part of the cheering crowd, on the centre left of the photo, with Lowan in the middle, in a sea of Greens.

Emily Lowan is an ardent opponent of BC NDP Premier David Eby and his government.  She recently instigated the cancellation of the Cooperative and Responsible Government Accord between the Green Party, its two MLAs and BC NDP, signed to provide stability and progressive policies. 

Lowan has repeatedly slammed the BC NDP as "right-wing" despite the government facing a hostile and truly extreme right-wing BC Conservative party and a critical business community who feel they are too "left-wing" - and are calling for a slash and burn approach to the programs, services and the jobs of public sector workers. 

So why would Avi Lewis be endorsing Emily Lowan as a leadership candidate for a party opposing the BC NDP electorally and trashing them publicly? 

As federal NDP leader, how can Avi Lewis work cooperatively with Premier David Eby - or Manitoba NDP Premier Wab Kinew - or Alberta NDP Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi or all the other provincial and territorial NDP leaders - when he actively supported a Green candidate for the leadership of a party that opposes the NDP federally and in every province?     

2).  Why has Avi Lewis given a central, starring role in his federal NDP leadership campaign to Anjali Appadurai, who was disqualified from running for the BC NDP leadership for breaking the rules? 

Appadurai was attempting to defeat now  Premier David Eby in the 2022 BC NDP leadership contest when an investigation by former NDP Finance Minister Elizabeth Cull - acting as Chief Electoral Officer for the party - wrote that:

“The CEO’s overriding concerns resulting from this investigation are that the integrity of the membership list is tainted by fraudulent signups and that Ms. Appadurai and her campaign did not display the honesty or candour in responding to the allegations that they would expect of a leadership contestant.” 

Cull found in her report that two environmental organizations - Dogwood and 350.org - had improperly encouraged individuals to join the BC NDP to support Appadurai's campaign.  As a result, the Party disqualified Appadurai.

One of the key pieces of evidence was a Zoom call attended by over 100 people, including key Dogwood staff, at which a plan was formulated to have Dogwood and other environmental organizations campaign to sign up BC NDP members. 

And who was apparently the chair and cheerleader at that critical meeting?  Avi Lewis! 

As the BC NDP investigation notes:

Avi Lewis, who appeared to chair or lead the discussion responded: “I’m excited to have folks from organizations bringing the power of their organizations.”

Mr. Lewis later stated more specifically: "I'm going to propose a test. If we're serious if we came here ready to work we should be able to sign up 1000 new members in the next 36 hours. Let's give ourselves 36 hours and see if we can sell 1000 memberships in the next 36 hours."

Lewis later added:  "Is everyone clear on that? How to sell memberships in the short term, how to get people to forward the membership confirmation to that email address anjaliforbc@gmail.com. Good. Okay."

For the record, Appadurai, Lewis, Dogwood and 350.org all disagreed with Cull's report but clearly it was sufficient for the provincial executive to disqualify Appadurai. 

Later, in 2025, would-be BC NDP leader Appadurai endorsed none other than Emily Lowan for leadership of the provincial Green Party!  

Apparently Appadurai's loyalty to the BC NDP she wanted to lead does not run very deep, but she is still a major player in the Avi Lewis campaign.

3)  Why is Avi Lewis courting and promoting endorsements from key environmental activists who support the provincial and federal Green Party and regularly denounce the BC NDP government of both David Eby and the late former Premier John Horgan? 

A quick look at Avi Lewis' campaign endorsement page shows prominent environmentalists urging NDP members to vote for him. 

David Suzuki is the most well-known - and also well-known for endorsing the BC Green Party in the 2024 provincial election - not the BC NDP.  As the Green Party wrote: 

  

"In a letter to supporters of the BC Greens Canadian icon science broadcaster and environmentalist David Suzuki endorsed leader Sonia Furstenau and the party for the Oct. 19, 2024 provincial election: 'All the science indicates we have created a terribly polluted world that is massively depleted of biodiversity. If the kind world we leave to our children and grandchildren is our highest concern we must indicate that by voting Green.' 

Furstenau thanked Suzuki saying: 'For decades Canadians have looked to David Suzuki for knowledge guidance and wisdom. He is a deeply trusted figure in our country and I am deeply grateful for the trust he places in me and the BC Greens.'”

Also endorsing Avi Lewis is Tzeporah Berman, International Programs Director for environmental group Stand.earth.  Berman has repeatedly appeared to support and then denounce the BC NDP - for not following her directions on a variety of issues, including forestry and the carbon tax. 

Once again, Berman said on Instagram that she had voted for David Eby and the BC NDP in the October 2024 provincial election because of what the BC Conservatives would do to the environment.  

But by 2025 her story had once again changed: 

“I have received requests to join the BC Greens for 30 years. I am joining now because I wholeheartedly support Emily Lowan as the next leader of the Party. I know Emily will be a fierce and compassionate advocate for climate ambition and work to keep us safe."

So again, why is Avi Lewis promoting an endorsement from Berman, an environmental activist who publicly supported the new Green Party leader who opposes the BC NDP government and who ripped up an agreement between the two parties for stability and progressive policies?

Also endorsing Avi Lewis is Bill McKibben, the American founder of 350.org and a supporter of Anjali Appadurai's candidacy for BC NDP leader against David Eby.  McKibben also supported Lewis in his unsuccessful run for the federal NDP in 2021 in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-To-Sky. 

4).  APOLOGY TO AVI LEWIS AND HIS CAMPAIGN

I was told today - Thursday February 26 - that Avi Lewis had made dozens of donations to the federal NDP over the years - under his legal full name Avram Lewis - and I was unaware of that information.  My comment below was incorrect and I have now removed it. 

I take full responsibility for the error and apologize without reservation to Avi Lewis and his campaign.  

I regret the error and I am always willing to correct the record on anything I say or post that is wrong.  

- Bill Tieleman 

5)  The Leap Manifesto - why did Avi Lewis and friends pull this Trojan Horse inside the federal NDP in 2016 - and in doing so attempt to change it into the Green Party in all but name? 

The Leap Manifesto was put together by Avi Lewis, his partner Naomi Klein and a host of other hard environmental and far left activists and sprung on the federal NDP and then-Alberta NDP Premier Rachel Notley as a proposal to effectively make it into another Green Party.  

Among those involved in organizing and promoting the Leap Manifesto were some of the names above, including 350.org and David Suzuki and his Foundation.  

The Leap Manifesto was used with glee by the NDP's opponents both federally and provincially to bash the party - which never adopted it.  For example, in Saskatchewan, the right-wing Saskatchewan Party cited it 53 times in their Legislature between 2016 and 2020, using it as a hammer to keep the provincial NDP from electoral success. 

Alberta Premier Notley was very clear in rejecting the Leap Manifesto, saying that:  "These ideas will never form any part of our policy.  They are naive, they are ill-informed, and they are tone-deaf."

 

Then BC NDP Opposition Leader John Horgan was equally clear in denouncing the Leap Manifesto:  "In total collectively it doesn't reflect the values of British Columbians. Our past and our future will be dependent on the development of natural resources."

At the time it came out, I wrote in The Tyee that the Leap Manifesto was a "Trojan Horse" being pulled inside the walls of the New Democratic Party - and should be rejected. 

Regrettably, the NDP didn't follow my advice then - and I was correct.  In the following 2019 federal election, the NDP lost 15 seats, dropping to 24 from 39 under new leader Jagmeet Singh. 

Overall, the Leap Manifesto really did split the New Democratic Party for a time, until it was shelved.

But it definitely helped end the term of then-NDP leader Tom Mulcair - who was voted out at the 2016 NDP convention in Alberta - which saw 52% of delegates vote to hold a leadership review, ending Mulcair's tenure. 

Avi Lewis was less than convincing in interviews that the Leap Manifesto was at all realistic and costed, telling Macleans magazine in 2016 that:  

"Q: But people would like to know what all this is going to cost. Is there a price tag?

A: No. It’s an aspirational high-level document that attempts to tell a story about where we are in history and what we need to do next. The next stage is to develop that granular policy approach and the coalition of social groups behind this document would like to get there. 

It’s not designed to be a budget. It wasn’t written by economists. But we know the money is there."

Right. 

In conclusion, Avi Lewis seems to be continuing his Leap Manifesto dream 10 years later, hoping this time to win the NDP leadership and transform the party into a radical Green Party of the left. 

It's up to the democratic decision of federal New Democratic Party members to decide if Avi Lewis should lead the party down this road to ruin. 

But those of us who understand what's at stake for Canada's social democratic party, and how Avi Lewis could lead it into a deep abyss that will take years to climb out of afterwards, should call it out now - tell NDP members that electing Lewis will be an electoral disaster.  

I for one cannot stay quiet in the face of a potential looming collapse of the NDP if Avi Lewis is elected leader, an NDP that I have supported all my life, worked and campaigned for federally and provincially, donated to, and strongly hoped would one day become a progressive government in Canada.  

I have supported and campaigned for every federal NDP leader since Ed Broadbent and every BC NDP leader since Dave Barrett - without exception. 

But despite that, I know and expect criticism from many of Avi Lewis' supporters and perhaps others.  I can anticipate what will be said against me.  

But I will not sit quietly by and watch Avi Lewis turn the NDP into a hopelessly unelectable shell of a party that also drags down provincial NDP governments and oppositions across Canada.  

The decision is up to the members - think about what you read here and make a choice you and your conscience can live with. 

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Mystery polling suggests ex-Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson or ex-BC Premier Christy Clark were considered possible federal Vancouver-Quadra Liberal candidates!

Bill Tieleman with Gregor Robertson

Who is polling residents of Vancouver-Quadra federal riding, asking what they think about former Vancouver Mayor and ex-NDP MLA Gregor Robertson running for the Liberal Party - and about ex-BC Premier and short-lived federal Liberal leadership candidate Christy Clark?   So who is behind mystery poller "Civic Issues Research"? 

UPDATE: The Liberal Party of Canada has appointed Wade Grant as their candidate in Vancouver-Quadra just this afternoon!  As noted below in my original story, the idea of bumping Grant out in favour of Robertson or Clark would not have been received favourably by many - but pretty obviously the pollster working for the federal Liberals?  Or Conservatives? - was hired to test the waters at considerable cost to whoever commissioned the poll.  And those results may be valuable when it comes to offering Robertson and/or Clark a candidacy in another Vancouver or Metro Vancouver riding. 

The answer is as elusive as the question is fascinating!

I was polled by an unknown firm called "Civic Issues Research" - which does not exist in an extensive Google search - on March 10, 2025, with an Interactive Voice Response call - often known as a "robo call."  An automated voice asks questions and the respondent pushes telephone keyboard numbers to answer. 

As a former newspaper and online publication columnist, I taped the call! 

After asking: "If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for or lean towards?" the "Civics Issues Research" got to the Vancouver-Quadra questions!

"If a federal election were held today, and the following candidates were running in your local riding, who would you vote for:

Press 1 for Ken Charko, running for the Conservative Party

Press 2 for Naden Abenes, running for the NDP

Press 3 for Gregor Robertson, running for the Liberal Party

Press 4 for Tom Digby, running for the Green Party, or

Press 5 if you are undecided"

It's very newsworthy that Gregor Robertson was listed as a possible Liberal candidate in my riding - Vancouver-Quadra - and the Globe and Mail broke a story this week that he was a possible star candidate for new Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney.  Other media have speculated Robertson would run in Vancouver-South, replacing retiring MP and cabinet minister Harjit Sajjan.  

And some of my sources say it would not look good if Wade Grant, a Musqueam First Nation officer who has been running a long campaign for the Liberal nomination, was bumped out by Carney in favour of Robertson.  We will soon see. 

Also noteworthy is that current Green Party Vancouver Park Board Commissioner Tom Digby is running for the federal Greens, as of March 6.  Naden Abenes ran for the NDP in 2021 but the party has not yet nominated a candidate this year. 

Then, after questions  another potential shocker.  

"On a scale of 1 to 5, where is 1 is very favourable, 3 is neutral, and 5 is very unfavourable, what is your opinion of: 

Joyce Murray [outgoing Vancouver-Quadra Liberal MP]

Gregor Robertson

Christy Clark

Ken Charko

Former BC Liberal Premier Christy Clark

Then they go to demographic questions - gender, age bracket, etc. 

I placed a call to the number listed on the IVR call for Civic Issues Research - 604 265-2740 - but no one answered.  The same voice as on the call had a message saying you could ask to be taken off their calling list by leaving your telephone number or for other information email them at a Gmail address. 

I've emailed that address and if I get a reply I will update this post. 

Full disclosure:  I have worked on Gregor Robertson's past NDP and Vision Vancouver campaigns.  I haven't been in touch with him for a few years.  And I have always voted NDP provincially and federally, but respect Gregor's public service and ability.  I have not contacted him and would not expect him to confirm anything about this polling. 

 

Bill Tieleman - watch this space for new content soon!

A message from Bill Tieleman 

Hello friends - as you can see here on my Bill Tieleman blog, there have been no new posts since I decided to run for city councillor in the October 2022 Vancouver civic election. 

I am happy to report that I am doing very well, continuing in my 25th year as President of West Star Communications, my business that provides strategy, communications and government relations services to a wide variety of clients - including labour, business, not-for-profits and indigenous organizations.

Recently my friend Mike Smyth of CKNW Radio asked me to fill in for another friend, Global TV's Keith Baldrey, for a discussion of current BC, municipal and federal politics, followed by phone-in callers every Friday morning at 10:05 a.m.  Please tune in!

 
I have been doing other political commentary with various media as well in the past year and I intend to have things to say here on a more regular basis soon!

  
Meanwhile, do have a look around at my many past columns in The Tyee and the late, lamented 24 Hours Vancouver newspaper and other material here - and thanks for dropping by!  
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Bill Tieleman announces candidacy for TEAM For A Livable Vancouver City Council nomination

Bill Tieleman says soul of Vancouver is at stake in critical municipal election on October 15 

It's time for a change at Vancouver City Hall and Mayor Kennedy Stewart and this council have to go, Tieleman says

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                               Saturday June 4, 2022

VANCOUVER – Communications, strategy and political consultant Bill Tieleman announced today he is seeking nomination as a Vancouver City Council candidate with the TEAM For A Livable Vancouver party, led by Mayoral Candidate Colleen Hardwick.

“Vancouver citizens deserve better and on October 15 they can vote for a new TEAM City Council that will make affordable housing, public safety and city services and livability the priority, led by experienced City Councillor Colleen Hardwick as Mayor,” Tieleman says.

“Despite city tax increases above inflation, public safety is at risk, with four stranger attacks a day in Vancouver – and our streets are crumbling in disrepair – it’s time for a change at City Hall and Mayor Kennedy Stewart and this council has to go,” Tieleman said.

“The soul of Vancouver is literally at stake in this critical election, with the Broadway Plan putting over 1,000 high-rise towers across 500 blocks of our city and demovicting thousands of renters from their affordable low-rise apartments,” he added. 

“The choice for Vancouver voters will be clear – four parties that all support the Broadway Plan’s 500 blocks of rental apartment demolition for replacement with two towers of up to 40-storeys per block – or TEAM For A Livable Vancouver – that stands for ensuring neighbourhoods across the city have a voice that will be heard at City Council.”

“But whether its towers from Clark Drive to Vine Street and from 16^th Avenue to False Creek or a 39-story tower at Broadway and Granville or towers at Commercial Drive and East Broadway or 38-storey luxury high-rise towers on the Jericho Lands – one thing is clear about Mayor Kennedy Stewart and his Forward Together party or the NPA, COPE, Green and ABC party City Councillors – they all want enormous towers all over the city – TEAM does not,” Tieleman said.  

“TEAM wants affordable housing for diverse requirements that meets the needs of neighbourhoods. There couldn’t be a clearer choice possible in this election.”                                                                                                   

“Councillor Colleen Hardwick has consistently stood up for Vancouver residents and offered common sense alternatives that have been sadly lacking – so I’m pleased to work hard to see her become Mayor with a TEAM majority on Council for a better city,” he said.

Hardwick welcomed Tieleman’s candidacy for a TEAM nomination, saying he brings experience working with all levels of government, not-for-profit groups, labour unions, businesses and indigenous organizations.

“Bill Tieleman is one of the most respected strategists and communicators in the province and has a wide wealth of experience to bring to City Council – Bill would be a welcome replacement as we face enormous challenges getting Vancouver back on track again,” Hardwick said.

TEAM For A Livable Vancouver will hold its nominating meeting for Council candidates on June 11 at 2 p.m. 

For more information on TEAM:  Website: https://www.voteteam.ca/

BACKGROUND

Bill Tieleman is one of BC’s best-known political strategists and campaigners; running his strategy and communications consulting firm – West Star Communications – since 1998.

Bill is a very successful campaigner – playing leading roles in winning four consecutive BC binding referenda – as president of the opponent group that defeated Proportional Representation in 2018 with a 61% win, following twice defeating pro-rep in 2005 and 2009; and as Strategist for Fight HST, the Harmonized Sales Tax was eliminated in a 2011 binding referendum, after BC’s only successful Citizens Initiative Petition across the province.

Bill served as Communications Director to then-BC NDP Premier Glen Clark in his upset 1996 election victory and also as BC Federation of Labour Communications Director and Assistant to then-President Ken Georgetti.  For over 16 years Bill Tieleman wrote a weekly politics column in 24 Hours Vancouver newspaper, The Tyee online magazine and the Georgia Straight newspaper; he does regular political commentary on television, radio, online and in print.

Bill provides strategy, communications and government relations advice to a wide range of clients, including labour, business, indigenous, environmental and not-for-profit organizations.

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"BC Premier John Horgan should absolutely call an election!"

BC Premier John Horgan & Bill Tieleman at swearing in ceremony in 2017.

Why BC NDP Premier John Horgan was absolutely right to call a BC election for Saturday October 24!

By Bill Tieleman  

[These are comments I made to The Tyee before BC NDP Premier John Horgan announced his decision to call a provincial election on Monday for Saturday October 24.  I am very pleased that the Premier has asked British Columbians for a mandate to continue to govern.  Others The Tyee interviewed didn't all agree with me!  See their full article here.]

Premier John Horgan should absolutely call an election - because with COVID-19 creating both an unprecedented health and economic crisis, British Columbians deserve to have a government with a strong mandate to implement its plans.  

It’s up to voters to decide whether it should be the BC NDP, the BC Liberals or the BC Greens in charge - whenever an election is called, it’s voters who decide, not politicians or parties. 

The BC NDP government can and will be judged on their response to this devastating pandemic;  the other parties will put forward their criticisms and plans and British Columbians will democratically choose which is better.

The election will be conducted safely, with minimal in person contact, few public events and socially distanced voting.  BC has much successful experience with binding mail referenda - my involvement with both the 2018 Proportional Representation vote and the Harmonized Sales Tax ballot showed me that mail voting is secure, with good participation and lower costs than in person polling stations on a single day.  It’s for those reasons that Washington state and other jurisdictions conduct all their ballots by mail.

This election will Also be a referendum Dash on which party I can best deal with COVID-19 and its aftermath. That place is the BC NDP in a good position thanks to Health Minister Adrian Dix putting his faith in medical science and due to Premier John Horgan’s strong leadership. 

BC Liberal opposition leader Andrew Wilkinson faces a difficult challenge overcoming some of his early leadership mistakes and lack of public or media attention to his party.  After 16 years in power, the BC Liberals seem to have run out of innovative ideas but an election is their best opportunity to put forward a new vision. 

Internal differences are also a significant factor, with the possibility of a post election political divorce between the federal Conservative and federal Liberal wings of the party.

The BC Greens have even more difficulties than the BC Liberals with the loss of former leader Andrew Weaver and his ongoing criticism of his former party, which is now led by Sonia Furstenau.  Weaver’s endorsement of John Horgan continuing as premier adds significantly to their woes.

All in all this promises to be one of the most unusual elections British Columbia has ever seen, with the results potentially determining the political futures of all parties for the next decade.

Bill Tieleman has served as Communications Director in the office of former BC NDP Premier Glen Clark and has won four consecutive binding provincial referenda, serving as President of NO BC Proportional Representation in the 2018 referendum, President of NO BC STV in the 2009 and 2005 referenda and as Strategist for NO BC HST in the 2011 referendum. He has also worked on many winning provincial, federal and municipal campaigns, nominations and leadership campaigns.   

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The Rubik's Cube Canadian Election of 2019 - Infinite Combinations and Extremely Frustrating!

Rubik's Cube - an appropriate metaphor for Election 2019!  

The Rubik's Cube Canadian Election of 2019 - With Infinite Combinations and Extremely Frustrating! 

By Bill Tieleman 

It's finally almost over!  This Rubik's Cube of a Canadian election 2019 has surely been one of the most frustrating and hardest to predict due to its infinite possible combinations of party results.

The results on Monday night appear likely to leave at least a few possible combinations for the two largest parties to form a temporary and shaky government.  

There is much negative and not much positive to be said for both possibilities in many ways but likely the one thing we can count on is another election within 18 months to two years.

Looking at the latest polls, it seems the two most likely possibilities are a Liberal minority  government backed by New Democratic Party support to get to the 170 seats needed for a majority vote on confidence matters -  or a Conservative minority, backed when crucial by the Bloc Québécois.

There still remains two outlier results: a Liberal or Conservative majority government that surprises all pollsters - but from the beginning of this desultory campaign that has seemed highly unlikely - and no polling even briefly indicated that was possible.

I have grave doubts about so-called "aggregator polls" that take all polling firms' results and combine them in an attempt to mitigate any rogue polls and get a much larger sample with presumably more accurate results.  The problem is that mixing pollsters with long track records with good accuracy and those who often can't hit the broad side of a barn door means the overall averages are misleading.

I prefer Ipsos results, along with the Angus Reid Institute and a few others.  The latest Ipsos Global News poll on Sunday October 20 shows these numbers: 

Ipsos polling results October 2019 for Global News

It's important to note that according to Ipsos, the Bloc Quebecois is at 29% in Quebec, the only province where it is contesting seats - all 78 of them.  That means it will send a large contingent of separatists to Parliament for the first time in many elections.  

And the Bloc Quebecois is an untouchable partner for any party to officially align with, though the Bloc and the Conservatives may work out a non-deal deal after the election.  The Liberals might also work that angle if necessary but they likely hope for a deal with the NDP - if their numbers add up.  

Lastly, British Columbia may - or may not - determine who will likely form the next government. Our 42 seats are tightly contested in mostly 3-way races between the NDP, Conservatives and Liberals, with the Greens trying to expand their two seats on Vancouver Island but not contending anywhere else in BC.

While our provincial ego always hopes the rest of the country stays up late watching our results roll in to find out who won, that usually hasn't happened.  But with a tight race in many BC ridings, hope springs eternal!  Let the easterners be sleepy Tuesday morning! 

The Biggest Losers and Winners?

The biggest loser has yet to be decided but both Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative leader Andrew Scheer are also neck and neck for that unwelcome honour.

Trudeau should have had it in the bag from the start but bungled it.  

Unable to contain the self-inflicted damage of the SNC-Lavalin scandal and unwilling or unable to keep Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould and Treasury Board President Jane Philpott in his cabinet and caucus when it was critical, Trudeau was already tarnished before the blackface incidents made him an international embarrassment as well.

Justin Trudeau at "Arabian Nights" event at private school event in 2001

Trudeau's future depends on his keeping the job of Prime Minister in a minority government - and even then it is clouded in the longer term.

The biggest winner appears clear - NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has run a phenomenal campaign and is the only national leader to have a wildly positive approval rating in poll after poll, while his party has steadily climbed in popularity. 

Singh's performance in two English language leaders debates was superb, coming across as the most genuine, relatable and relaxed of all of them - and Canadians reacted with increased support for the NDP.

Singh also dealt with a racist encounter on camera in Montreal with poise and true leadership in difficult circumstances, winning plaudits even from his political opponents. 

Jagmeet Singh on Tik Tok with over 2 million views!

And he has proven a social media phenomenon, getting followed by pop star Rihanna on Instagram and most recently mastering Tik Tok while other leaders are left in the dust by comparison!

But Singh also has to account for the two years since he became leader when the party's polling pancaked, it's finances fizzled and expectations dropped so precipitously low that at campaign start many speculated on whether or not the NDP could maintain official party status with 12 MPs elected. 

Things improved very dramatically after Singh won his Burnaby South seat in a by election and when the campaign drew national attention to his strong abilities.  But ironically, if the NDP gets 30 or more seats it may be regarded as a huge success for Singh - but that would be less than the 44 seats won in 2015 under the unlamented leadership of Tom Mulcair, who saw 51 seats disappear from the 2011 election tally under the late Jack Layton.  

However, it Singh meets or exceeds 44 seats he will be guaranteed a hero's welcome indefinitely by NDP troops. 

In the event of a Liberal minority with NDP support there will be no likelihood of either Trudeau or Singh losing their jobs as leaders, even if one or both parties lose seats. 

Scheer, on the other hand, is much more likely to lose his job unless he can form a minority government himself. For the Conservatives this has always been a "majority or bust" campaign, as they had little hope of winning the support of the NDP in a minority situation even before Singh publicly and repeatedly ruled that out.  

That only leaves the Bloc Quebecois as a likely possible partner of sorts - and that relationship would have the Facebook description of "It's complicated"!   But for Trudeau, should "Scheer Madness" prevail, his leadership may well be over. 

And of course the Bloc Quebec-wha? and leader Yves-Francois Blanchet are almost guaranteed to be big winners, having come back from the almost dead to likely win 20 to 30 or even more seats.  Blanchet will be laughing all the way to the separation referendum!

The other biggest loser could well be Green Party leader Elizabeth May, who for the third successive election in a row has predicted a "breakthrough" nationally for her party.  

After the by-election win of Paul Manly in Nanaimo-Ladysmith earlier this year in a formerly NDP seat, May and her party were exuberant.  

Tieleman Twitter account exposed a few flaky Green candidates

But the campaign started badly and faded further in the stretch, with a string of flaky and offensive candidates exposed online by myself and others for everything from believing 9/11 was an "inside job" to that the 1969 moon landing was faked to Islamophobic comments found on social media by four Quebec candidates.  

Some of those Greens became non-candidates and others profusely apologized but the damage was done - the Greens were "not as advertised" to many voters and their polling numbers tanked.  Now they hold out hope to possibly pick up a few more seats on Vancouver Island but seem to have little chance anywhere else.

So one of the least interesting election campaigns in recent political history will end with possibly the most interesting results and consequences for Canada since the 1970s.

This is one Rubik's Cube election that will take a long time and a lot of aggravation to puzzle out.    

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