Why Todd Stone should win today's BC Liberal leadership vote over Dianne Watts

Will Todd Stone be the new BC Liberal leader tonight?

By Bill Tieleman

Todd Stone should emerge from one of the nastiest, most divisive and destructive leadership races we've ever seen in Canada as the BC Liberal Party's new leader this evening - and do so over Dianne Watts on the final ballot.

Despite a plethora of problems for Stone - from the outrageous ICBC deficit he created to having over 1,300 of his party membership signups rejected - the former transportation minister from Kamloops and current opposition MLA, he is still the best placed to win the leadership vote and, the party membership hopes - eventually the province's premier following the next BC election.

The fact that most of the other candidates have ganged up on Stone in the final days means their campaign teams know Stone is the one to beat, based on their own internal tracking.

And Stone's likelihood of winning is in no small part because of the BC Liberal Party's interesting electoral system - which gives 100 points for each of BC's 87 ridings in the voting - or 8,700 in total - meaning the winning candidate needs 4,351 points to win.

BC Liberal leadership candidates from left: Mike de Jong, Andrew Wilkinson, Sam Sullivan, Dianne Watts, Michael Lee and Todd Stone at campaign event.

It means that while a strong regionally-based candidate like Dianne Watts, the former Surrey mayor and Stephen Harper Conservative Member of Parliament, can sign up lots of members in a relatively few ridings - they don't matter anything like the do in a province-wide, one member-one vote contest.

So the campaign with the most broad, cross-province support - both on the first and subsequent ballots - should win. 

Watts, who I expect to finish in second place tonight but still could win, has by all accounts recruited a lot of new members in suburban Metro Vancouver ridings.

But even if her campaign signed up 6,000 members in three different ridings and dominated the voting there, it's still only a maximum of 300 points out of 8,700.  And a rural riding with just a few hundred members has the same equal voting strength of 100 points. 

So of course, the same math applies to newcomer candidate Michael Lee, BC LIberal MLA for Vancouver-Langara, who claims to have signed up the most new party members.

And the key to winning this contest is who BC Liberal members make as their second, third and fourth choices on the ranked ballot - because those redistributed votes will almost surely determine who the new leader is.

There is also the element of insiders vs outsiders, with those who served in the Christy Clark BC Liberal government viscerally angry with ultimate outsider Dianne Watts trying to take the crown - given Watts only joined the BC Liberal Party after the 2017 election and did nothing to assist that campaign in her home base of Surrey - where the party lost several tough battles to the BC NDP. 

Lee is the traditional dark horse candidate who could surprise the favourites - but I believe that despite a very good campaign, impressive candidate and a strong set of strategists, Lee is simply too unknown to the party or public to get to the final ballot.

Former Attorney General Andrew Wilkinson started very strong and still has the most BC Liberal MLA endorsements but as the long campaign wore on, Wilkinson's attempts to be populist and grassroots faded and his traditional chippy, charmless style came out to poor effect.  

But Wilkinson should still do well and in an ideal situation become the alternative final ballot choice to Watts - or Stone.  

Ex-Finance Minister Mike de Jong is having a much better leadership campaign than his ill-fated 2011 effort against winner Christy Clark, when de Jong couldn't find a single fellow caucus member to support him.  

But with all and sundry blaming the tight-fisted former finance minister for not spending the BC Liberals huge savings pre-election for their stunning 2017 loss, de Jong is not going to win.  Nor will his deal to urge second-choice support to Wilkinson and vice-versa make much difference.

Sam Sullivan never expected to win - and he sure won't.  The former Vancouver mayor who represents Vancouver-False Creek has run on the most right-wing platform of all candidates with a few wild ideas thrown in - and has been the least vituperative in the donnybrook.

If campaigns matter - and they usually do - Watts has had a terrible effort.  

Appearing not just at the outset but throughout the campaign debates as ill-prepared, lacking policies and prescriptions, and beset by her competition repeatedly, Watts is nonetheless popular with some in the party and does not carry the baggage of the Christy Clark premiership that Stone, Wilkinson and de Jong are toting as ex-Clark cabinet ministers.

Watts, Lee and Sullivan also have no - as in zero - BC Liberal MLA support - not a good sign either.

Wilkinson leads with 13 MLAs backing his bid while Stone and de Jong each have seven, with the remaining BC Liberal MLAs sitting out endorsements for various reasons.

Christy Clark proved in 2011 that you could in fact win the leadership with just one MLA backing your campaign - and a very unimpressive one at that - Harry Bloy - but this is a different time and set of candidates.  Plus - recent events raise questions about the leadership voting process - was Kevin Falcon robbed of the premiership?  Time may tell.

But tonight is about the future of the BC Liberal Party - not its past - and whether Stone, Watts or another candidate wins, the new leader faces a daunting task of uniting a party that is out of power and out of sorts.

And then they have to face the formidable battle of taking on BC NDP Premier John Horgan, who is now Canada's second most popular premier and showing that he loves being in government after year in opposition.

Anything can happen in BC politics - and often does - but periodically BC's right wing forces made up of federal Conservatives and federal Liberals joining together provincially shatters into pieces.  

This campaign certainly has been a likely lead up to another political splintering at least for awhile - and being in opposition without the ability to put your former rivals into plum cabinet jobs means the new leader will be hard pressed to create the unity needed to contend.

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NO BC Proportional Representation Society brings together political opponents to fight Pro-Rep in BC fall referendum

Bill Tieleman and Suzanne Anton - at CBC Radio launch day

NO BC PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION SOCIETY

No to Proportional Representation in BC

I am pleased to share our first news release of the campaign to stop Proportional Representation in BC and keep our current electoral system - First Past The Post - that has served British Columbia well. 

NEWS RELEASE                                                                Wednesday January 10, 2018

Former Attorney General Suzanne Anton, ex NO-STV President Bill Tieleman, and retired veteran deputy minister Bob Plecas set up new society to fight Proportional Representation in 2018 vote

Former BC Liberal Attorney General Suzanne Anton, long-time BC New Democrat Bill Tieleman – who successfully led opposition to the Single Transferable Vote electoral system in the 2005 and 2009 provincial referenda, and Bob Plecas, who served as a deputy minister in multiple portfolios under several BC governments – have formed the No BC Proportional Representation Society and serve as its three directors.

Bob Plecas

The Society will work to defeat any proportional representation system proposed for the fall 2018 referendum schedule and support the current First Past The Post electoral system that has served BC well.

Anton, Tieleman and Plecas say that proportional representation systems put political parties ahead of voters; are confusing; cut directly accountable locally-elected representation – especially in rural areas – and promote extremist parties who can hold the balance of power in perpetual minority governments, and decide who governs, and with what policies.

“Proportional representation electoral systems put parties ahead of people,” said Anton.  “Pro-rep systems where 30 to 40 per cent of elected officials come from a party-chosen list means that party bosses choose legislators and not people. Those legislators are not from geographic ridings and are not accountable to citizens.”

Tieleman says the rise of extremist parties in Europe is aided by proportional representation, since as little as 1 per cent of the vote is enough to elect legislators.

“Our First Past The Post electoral system forces winning candidates to gain the support of their ridings and be held directly accountable to them or face defeat,” says Tieleman.  “But proportional representation systems allow parties with extreme positions of the right or the left to be elected with a tiny percentage of votes – and then use that validity, legitimacy and platform to further their cause.”

Plecas says his experience working with governments ranging from Social Credit Premier Bill Bennett to NDP Premier Glen Clark showed him that the First Past The Post system serves British Columbia well, whatever their politics.

“Our current electoral system encourages parties to gain broad-based support and take into account all regions of the province and all perspectives – or face defeat,” Plecas said.  “It is particularly important that non-urban voters have locally elected representatives who they can hold responsible – and ensure their interests are not lost in a rush to gain urban votes.”

Tieleman and Plecas both helped organize opposition to the Single Transferable Vote proposed in the 2005 and 2009 referenda, building a wide coalition with support from all political perspectives.  In 2005, STV was narrowly defeated but in 2009 after a much more significant public debate, voters strongly rejected STV, a form of proportional representation, by 61 per cent to 39 per cent.

Tieleman, who also helped lead opposition to the Harmonized Sales Tax that was eliminated in a 2011 referendum, warns that the 2018 electoral system referendum will be a difficult test for those who support the First Past The Post.

“The requirement in 2005 and 2009 that 60 per cent of voters approve of such a fundamental change is now gone and only 50 per cent plus one could give us a disastrous electoral system with endless minorities, backroom deals and unaccountable politicians forever,” Tieleman said.  

“We have our work cut out for us to defeat proportional representation and not end up like Italy, Israel, Austria or other countries where the electoral system promotes extremists and damages democracy.”

Anton agreed, saying the No BC Pro-Rep will encourage British Columbians from every perspective and community to join together to reject proportional representation.

“I’m pleased to work with Bill Tieleman because this referendum is too important for partisan politics,” Anton said. “We will be building a strong, non-partisan team that supports our current electoral system and rejects a system that puts parties ahead of people.”

Plecas, Tieleman and Anton say No BC Pro-Rep will seek to be the official proponent group opposing proportional representation and supporting First Past The Post in the provincial referendum, and that they support equal public funding for both sides.

“Voters need to hear the arguments for and against proportional representation and First Past The Post in order to decide for themselves what’s best for BC,” Plecas said. “The most effective way to do that is by the government ensuring fair, adequate and equal funding to both sides for public awareness campaigns, as well as sponsoring debates around the province.”

Merry Christmas to all - from Bill Tieleman and West Star Communications!

And a Happy New Year!  May 2018 bring you happiness and health! 

Green Party Votes Could Elect Christy Clark – You Only Get One Shot – Do Not Blow This Opportunity!

Don't vote for this guy .....and get Christy Clark instead!

BC Green Party leader Andrew Weaver

BC Liberal Premier Christy Clark

"You only get one shot, do not miss your chance to blow 
This opportunity comes once in a lifetime"

- Eminem - Lose Yourself

By Bill Tieleman 

Let’s cut to the chase – Christy Clark and the BC Liberals could be narrowly re-elected on May 9 – if enough people who desperately want to get rid of her vote for the Green Party instead of their local BC New Democrat Party candidate.

And then the BC Liberal machine fueled by corporate cash will roll on for another 4 years of abuse – of the environment, people with disabilities, those on social assistance, workers at minimum wage, Metro Vancouver and Victoria renters who will never be able to buy a home or even rent one for long – you name it, people will suffer big time.

And Christy Clark will Cheshire Cat smile at you all the way.

That’s what’s at stake – and there is little time left to avoid a potential political disaster.

Fact: the Green Party has one seat and could possibly win a couple more – if it can win more than 35% of the vote in some ridings.

Fact: the Green Party is polling at somewhere between 14% and 19% province-wide.

Fact: the BC NDP have 35 seats and are polling at about 40%.

Fact: the BC Liberals have 47 seats and are also polling at about 40%. But the advantage goes to the BC Liberals -- they have more seats, more money to spend and the benefit of incumbency.

To defeat Christy Clark it will take the BC NDP to win 10 more seats – and that’s net seats – any seat they lose takes away from those net 10.

I’m not going to question Andrew Weaver and Green candidates any more than I already have – there are serious concerns about whether they care if Christy Clark is re-elected or not – see my The Tyee column to read about their many serious contradictions.

But I will say Weaver has run a good campaign – good enough that it might unfortunately just let Christy Clark sneak back into power by encouraging enough voters to case a Green ballot in ridings that the BC NDP simply must win or hold to have a chance to defeat the BC Liberals.

In those ridings a Green vote will not elect a Green MLA – it will ensure the elections of a BC Liberal MLA who will be led by Christy Clark.

If you are concerned about the environment, if you are upset with the Christy Clark government’s cheerleading support for hunting grizzly bears, for oil tankers, the Kinder Morgan pipeline, LNG, Site C – it’s a long list – then you owe it to yourself to think carefully about your vote on May 9.

If you also care about Christy Clark’s pay for play politics, about the unlimited corporate and foreign donations to the BC Liberal Party that have given it a huge advantage – think carefully.

If you are concerned about the lack of integrity in the BC Liberals – a party led by a campaign manager who is facing criminal breach of trust charges in Ontario for her alleged role in deleting government records while serving as deputy chief of staff to a former Liberal premier – watch this hard hitting independent video – the toughest look at BC Liberal charges and convictions – from the Better Government BC Society – and think carefully about your vote.

You may not like our electoral system but it’s the candidate with the most votes who wins – and with three parties it’s a zero-sum game.  If you take away your vote from the NDP candidate and give it to the Green candidate, unless that Green can take 38% or more of the vote – you are helping a BC Liberal win.  It’s that simple.

It's also important for potential Green Party voters to check out the BC NDP platform - because there are a lot of similarities - including a commitment to end corporate and union donations in politics - a change that simply has to happen to end the ability of any party to unfairly influence both elections and government policies.

And if you don't believe me, check out the same math from Martyn Brown, the former chief of staff to Premier Gordon Campbell - who now wants Christy Clark defeated. As Brown rightly says: 

"Four more years wasted: that will be our sentence, if we split the vote for change, instead of standing together for new NDP government that might liberate the change we all want, green and orange alike.

Friends: don't do the crime if you can't bear the time."

It's all down to the wire now -- and as Eminem said: 

"Look, if you had, one shot, or one opportunity
To seize everything you ever wanted. In one moment
Would you capture it, or just let it slip?"

This is your one shot - your opportunity to defeat the Christy Clark BC Liberals and it takes a vote for the BC NDP to do it – don’t let this chance slip.

Bill Tieleman is a former NDP strategist whose West Star Communications firm has clients in labour, business, not-for-profits and First Nations.

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Warren Kinsella's despicable and defamatory attack on BC NDP unbelievable but aimed to help Christy Clark BC Liberals

Warren Kinsella makes defamatory, despicable and untrue attack on BC NDP in desperate effort to support Christy Clark BC Liberals

Warren Kinsella - Christy Clark - BC Liberal backer

By Bill Tieleman 

UPDATE OCTOBER 2019

I was blocked on Twitter by Warren Kinsella - who I know and have met a few times in the past - after I wrote this column in 2017 taking him rightly to task for an outrageously incorrect attack in a column prior to the May 2017 BC election.

I frankly didn't notice that I was #BlockedbyWarrenKinsella for quite awhile, then somewhat mystified when I found out.  He has never contacted me to complain or ask for anything below to be corrected.

But since the revelation this week that he was hired by the federal Conservative Party to attempt to trash their right-wing opponents, the People's Party of Canada and leader Maxime Bernier, it appears clear that the mercenary and politically unprincipled approach he takes includes attempting to silence criticism.  

That the Green Party and Elizabeth May hired Kinsella prior to the 2019 election to set up their war room speaks volumes about them as well.

Here's the original article I wrote in 2017:  

Warren Kinsella has launched a defamatory, despicable and unbelievable attack on the BC NDP as the provincial election draws to a close - a desperate effort to support Christy Clark and the BC Liberals.

I have often agreed with Kinsella views but his Huffington Post column "10 Reasons I Want The B.C. NDP To Lose" is a scurrilous, unsubstantiated and unfair attack that needs a factual rebuttal.

Kinsella - a lifelong federal Liberal who worked for the BC Liberals in the 1996 losing provincial election - where I was communications director to BC NDP Premier Glen Clark  - is welcome to his opinion, but his over the top, mostly fact-free column is outrageous. Start with:

Reason 3 - "Election '96".  Kinsella makes this totally unsubstantiated claim about the 1996 election:  "The NDP won because they had gerrymandered the province while in power. Period." and to "prove" it links to a BC Hansard page that actually dates to 2007 and features BC NDP MLAs complaining about BC Liberal changes to the independent Boundaries Commission report - changes that the BC NDP said were wrong.  

As current BC NDP leader John Horgan put it then, the BC Liberal legislation amounted to: "Blatant interference by the Premier in the work of an independent commission."   That would be former BC Premier Gordon Campbell - who Kinsella greatly admires and who he claims offered him the job of his chief of staff, which Kinsella declined.

In fact, the BC Liberals lost the election because they ran a poor campaign despite coming in with a huge lead in the polls.  And because Campbell's campaign manager was caught out discussing a backroom deal with the Social Credit party in the final days of the campaign that would have seen most Socred candidates drop out except for their leader to help elect BC Liberals, who would withdraw from the Socred leader's constituency to let him win.

The BC Liberals also lost because they were going to slash health care and education funding, privatize BC Rail and reduce the number of seats in Northern and rural BC.  That was a rallying cry for the new right-wing Reform Party of BC, who won 2 seats and 9% of the vote.

Kinsella's whining about winning more of the popular vote echoes Campbell's at the time - but our electoral system is based on the number of seats won, not across the province vote totals, as both know well. 

Reason 4 - "Creeps" - the most outrageous thing Kinsella writes:  "The B.C. NDP were the sleaziest, dirtiest, scummiest opponents I'd ever encountered in a campaign. While we had a few Young Liberals to help set up events, for example, Glen Clark's B.C. NDP could rely on the assistance of big union guys to help them -- and, occasionally, interfere with our events." 

No facts, no details, not a shred of evidence - just an ad hominem and defamatory smear job by Kinsella.  

In fact, the BC Liberals in 1996 - as in the 2017 campaign - sent around a truck to follow the BC NDP campaign bus to try to disrupt media events constantly.  It was a desperate move that backfired but it there was only one party doing it - the BC Liberals.

I disagreed then and now with much of the BC Liberal campaign tactics but I've never described them in the offensive, derogatory and untrue way Kinsella does.  He owes the BC NDP an apology for this part alone.

Reason 7 - "Scandal" - clear defamatory, without any evidence and offensive.  I will risk repeating a libel only to dispel each factually inaccurate claim.

Kinsella wrote: "As we B.C. Libs had predicted, the Glen Clark NDP turned out to be the most corrupt provincial government in modern Canadian history. They stole from charities (Google "Bingogate"). They were linked to bribes (Google "Hydro-gate"). And, of course, there was the deck that killed off an NDP Premier (Google "Glen Clark," "deck" and "act of folly"). The B.C. NDP treated the provincial treasury like it was their personal piggybank. Their name was synonymous with scandal."

First - the NDP governments of Mike Harcourt from 1991 to 1996 and Glen Clark from 1996 to 1999 were elected long after the "Bingogate" scandal had occurred and had nothing to do with Mike or Glen.  Former NDP MLA Dave Stupich, now deceased, pled guilty to fraud charges in 1999.

Second - it was NDP Premier Glen Clark who in 1996 appointed former Supreme Court of BC Chief Justice Nathan Nemetz to investigate the Nanaimo Commonwealth Holding Society scandal - far from covering anything up, Justice Nemetz launched a comprehensive review.

Third - it was BC Liberal Premier Gordon Campbell who shut down the Nemetz commission! Was the commission getting too close to other parties' past dubious fundraising activities?  We will never know. 

Fourth - allegations of being "linked to bribes" are highly defamatory - and untrue!  The "Hydro-gate" case Kinsella mentions did not involve bribes but did involve undisclosed BC Hydro investment in a Pakistan power project.  Glen Clark swiftly fired both the chair and CEO of BC Hydro just weeks before the election - and won that vote despite "Hydro-gate".

Fifth - Glen Clark was acquitted of a breach of trust charge in the so-called "Casinogate" affair after a neighbour who had made a casino license application allegedly did renovations for the premier without charging fully for them.  Clark had been forced to resign after it was revealed he was under police investigation.

Clark - to his great credit - worked his way up from a manager position in the Jim Pattison sign division to become President and Chief Operating Officer of the entire organization -  with revenue of $9.6 billion it is Canada's second largest private company.

The only criminal activity by a BC Premier in history was when Gordon Campbell was caught in Maui drunk driving, spent the night in jail - the first premier ever to put Canada in such an embarrassing situation - and was fined $1,350 for the offence.  "Mr. Campbell is sufficiently embarrassed and ashamed for what he did, as well he should be," said Maui District Judge Reinette Cooper.

And if Kinsella wants to talk about scandals - how about the fact that Christy Clark's BC Liberal Campaign Director Laura Miller was hired despite facing criminal breach of trust charges in Ontario this fall, where police allege she was involved in deleting government records relating to the $1.1 billion gas plant cancellation when she was deputy chief of staff to then-Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty.  

And Brian Bonney - a BC Liberal operative and ex-communications director in the BC Liberal government's multicultural ministry - also faces a criminal breach of trust charge later this year for alleged activities while in government.

BC Liberal Premier Christy Clark

And the list goes on much longer - so much so that a new group called the Better Government BC Society launched a very tough 1 minute online video that's received over 33,000 views and thousands of Facebook shares.

Reason 10 - "John Horgan" - Kinsella makes far too much of an offhand comment made by the BC NDP leader in a radio debate and then launches into this smear: "He has been incoherent, policy-wise. He has no self-control, and he has no understanding of even basic economics -- and how to keep the strongest economy in Canada strong. He would be an unmitigated disaster for British Columbia."

In fact, Horgan released a fully-costed BC NDP platform last month that uses the BC LIberal budget financial data for all its calculations.  Horgan has been a strong opposition MLA since 2005 and worked in the BC NDP governments before that in several senior positions - including as chief of staff to interim BC NDP Premier Dan Miller.  

Kinsella is free to criticize Horgan or the BC NDP platform - but try doing it on the facts and with counter arguments, not simply ridiculous rhetoric.

Bill Tieleman 

All in all, the veteran political operative Warren Kinsella does neither his reputation nor his chosen Christy Clark BC Liberals any favours with a defamatory, wildly inaccurate and very unfair column of insults to his opponents.  You would think by now he'd know better.

Bill Tieleman is a columnist for 24 Hours Vancouver and The Tyee online.  He runs West Star Communications, a Vancouver strategy and communications consulting firm.  Tieleman was Communications Director to BC NDP Premier Glen Clark in the 1996 upset election win and also Strategist for Fight HST, the grassroots organization that forced and won a binding referendum to eliminate the BC Harmonized Sales Tax.  Fight HST was led by former Social Credit Premier Bill Vander Zalm.