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| Bill Tieleman, Premier Glen Clark and Minister John Cashore - 1996 |
Yes, Gordon
Campbell choked. Here's how the NDP helped him do it.
Bill Tieleman’s
24 Hours Vancouver / The Tyee
column
Tuesday May 31, 2016
By Bill Tieleman
"Was
that close or what?"
-
Then-BC NDP premier Glen Clark, election night
May 28, 1996
It was 20
years ago last Saturday that BC New Democrat Premier Glen Clark scored an
amazing come from behind upset victory over then-BC Liberal leader Gordon
Campbell -- but the lessons of that 1996 campaign are remarkably valid for the
2017 election.
Clark had
taken over from NDP Premier Mike Harcourt in February 1996, with Campbell up to
30 per cent ahead in the polls -- and cruising towards an easy win.
But the
scrappy, determined Clark wasn't conceding anything and launched an aggressive,
comprehensive attack on Campbell and his policies that left the BC Liberals
stunned when the votes were counted and they lost.
And bitter,
as they got
more votes than the NDP but won just 33 seats to Clark's 39, with the Reform
Party taking two and the Progressive Democratic Alliance one.
There are
several lessons from that historic campaign to be learned for the current
opposition BC NDP under leader John Horgan with under a year until 2017's
election.
And as
Clark's communications director in 1996, I see some distinct similarities.
First,
define your opponent.
Clark ran
under the banner of "On Your Side" -- a populist appeal backed up by
action.
He froze
taxes, post-secondary tuition, BC Hydro and ICBC rates while increasing the
minimum wage.
At the same
time, Clark asked: "Whose side is Gordon Campbell on?"
The answer
was spelled out in tough NDP TV attack ads created by NOW Communications, with
a sinister Campbell in grainy black and white photos and ominous "voice of
doom" narration.
Campbell
allowed himself to be tattooed as an uncaring big business apologist who would
slash public services with abandon, privatize crown corporations and govern as
a city slicker who didn't get rural voters, having even promised to reduce
representation in the Legislature.
The BC NDP
must now negatively define Premier Christy Clark -- and she has lately been
giving them plenty of assistance, with policies that hurt the disabled while
she helps herself to an extra $50,000 a year from her party.
Second,
it doesn't matter how narrowly you win seats.
The first past
the post electoral system is not a province-wide election where voters directly
chose the premier; it is 85 separate mini-elections for local representation
and the party that takes a majority of those ridings forms government.
Winning big
majorities in some ridings means no more than winning by tiny margins in others
because each has just one MLA. It's the number of MLAs each party wins that
counts.
So winning
by just hundreds or even dozens of votes in a few ridings is essential to
provincial election victories.
As Norman
Ruff pointed out
in a 1996 BC Studies article, had the NDP lost less than 1,000 votes to the BC
Liberals, the Clark government would have been defeated. Was that close or
what, indeed!
And as Ruff
added, the BC Liberals: "learned on 28 May, the electoral system often
gives an edge to regional concentrations."
That means
in 2017 the NDP must again pursue an extremely strategic campaign where it
focuses resources on winning close riding votes where they have regional
strength and ensuring their platform appeals to local voters.
Third,
campaigns matter greatly.
We have
repeatedly seen that in both the last federal election and the 2013 BC contest
where a front running NDP faded in the final stretch.
The 1996 BC
NDP campaign ran flawlessly, with a mix of both positive platform announcements
and negative hits on Campbell and BC Liberal promises, turning their possible
win into a nightmare scenario for enough voters to win.
By contrast,
the BC Liberal campaign was both nasty and ineffective. Their attacks on Clark
as "Glenocchio" -- with a wooden nose growing over claimed broken
promises was an American-style attack ad that jarred but didn't convince,
turning off many voters.
Then
Campbell was sidelined with a campaign scandal in the crucial final week when
the Social Credit Party alleged it was offered a deal by the BC Liberals where
the Socreds would pull all but one candidate and support Campbell in exchange
for their leader not being opposed by a BC Liberal in his riding.
The strange
deal gained credence when it was admitted two senior BC Liberals, including
Campbell's campaign manager, had met the Socreds.
And though
the deal was denied, Campbell fired no one and the controversy pulled the BC Liberals
way off message and onto the defensive at the critical end game where voters
decide -- with politically disastrous results.
Don't
choke
Overall, the
BC Liberals had many advantages they squandered -- a new leader without the
baggage of time in provincial office; an opponent that had made many
controversial decisions and dealt with several scandals in government; and a
well-funded campaign that could have devastated the BC NDP but didn't.
As Norman
Ruff noted: "The 1996 election campaign was unusual in that it made the
opposition platform, rather than government performance, the main target for
debate."
If the BC
NDP are to win the 2017 election they have to take the 1996 lessons to heart
and make sure as opposition they focus -- and don't choke like Campbell did
back then.
.



