Would Justin Trudeau Liberal leadership win pave way for Conservative re-election?

Will Parliament’s Member for Twitter-East win or will MP Joyce Murray meld parties with social media backing?  

Will Justin Trudeau or Joyce Murray be victorious in Liberal leadership?

And other far out fantasies fueled by social media.

Bill Tieleman’s 24 Hours/The Tyee column

Tuesday March 19, 2013

By Bill Tieleman

"Twitter is a great place to tell the world what you're thinking before you've had a chance to think about it."

- Chris Pirillo, blogger

Canada is apparently doomed -- unless one of two things happen, depending on which Twitter feed you follow:

Either Justin Trudeau -- Parliament's member for Twitter-East -- becomes Liberal leader, is elected prime minister in 2015, and vanquishes both Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper and New Democrat leader Tom Mulcair, or;

Vancouver Quadra MP Joyce Murray becomes Liberal leader and drags into a one-time-only 2015 electoral cooperation deal her own reluctant party, the uninterested NDP and the keen Greens, who all then implement proportional representation and allegedly ensure Conservatives never rule Canada again.

While the first option is extremely unlikely, it at least has a mathematical possibility of coming true.

Justin Trudeau/Joyce Murray/Marc Garneau - Sun News photo

The second option, however, would require more things to happen in precisely the right order with exactly perfect timing than the Big Bang Theory that created our universe.

But two of Canada's biggest social media groups, LeadNow.ca and Avaaz.org, are betting everything on the cosmology caper coming true.

For others, either one of those events happening in Canada in 2015 would be a sign of political apocalypse akin to the Mayan calendar's 2012 end of the world prediction, and equally unlikely.

Nonetheless, when the Twitterati become restless thinking that Harper will extend his Darth Vader rule by winning another election in 2015 -- they do what they do best: Tweet.

Windmills 2.0

Avaaz.org and LeadNow.ca both have admirable campaigns that I endorse, such as fighting violence against women in India or opposing Conservative environmental cuts.

But they strained their credibility beyond the breaking point when they asked Canadians to join the Liberal Party of Canada to support Murray's windmill-tilting campaign for the leadership.

They had the same unsuccessful strategy backing NDP MP Nathan's Cullen's leadership campaign, when he also advocated electoral cooperation -- and came a distant third.

Leadnow.ca and Avaaz.org don't even seem bothered by the fact that Murray's own track record on the environment -- one of their top issues -- is simply awful.

Murray was once hatchet person for then-premier Gordon Campbell's BC Liberal government, serving as minister of water, air and land protection while clear cutting 25 per cent of the staff that actually protected wildlife.

Murray was also in charge when the BC Liberals ended the moratorium on salmon farm expansion and hunting grizzly bears and stopped issuing reports about who were the worst corporate polluters in the province. They even eliminated the name "environment ministry."

But her past apparently doesn't matter even to famous enviro endorsers like David Suzuki, because Murray now opposes the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline -- and wants electoral cooperation.

You have to choose

As I have argued before, removing voters democratic right to choose between political parties through an electoral cooperation deal is simply wrong -- and what's more, won't work.

And while Tyee contributor Murray Dobbin endorses the lowest common denominator approach to Canadian politics, the reality is that those who want to depose Harper have a simple choice -- Mulcair or Trudeau, but not both.

Electoral cooperation can still happen if Canadians wish to support whichever party can most likely win against a Conservative in a "strategic voting" scenario. But neither the NDP opposition nor the third party Liberals will endorse it.

That approach is totally fair for groups like LeadNow.ca and Avaaz.org to advocate, inform and persuade -- but trying to remove voter choices through a party deal will never succeed.

And while their efforts have gained some media traction, the reality is that currently about 51,000 Canadians have signed LeadNow.ca's electoral cooperation petition online -- which represents less than half the number of voters in one average Ontario riding.

Unfortunately neither LeadNow.ca nor Avaaz.org are launching campaigns to restore democratic representation by population in Canada, where currently Prince Edward Island has ridings with just 30,000 voters and Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia average about 70,000 voters -- compared to six Greater Toronto-area ridings with 150,000 to 170,000 voters.

That means a vote in PEI is worth five times more than in Toronto!

What does Trudeau stand for?

Meanwhile Justin Trudeau continues the Liberal coronation campaign backed by his nearly 200,000 Twitter followers.

Marc Garneau -- an actual Canadian hero who once challenged Trudeau to debate the real issues facing our country instead of making vague pronouncements -- has dropped out and endorsed the party favorite, but only after landing more punches than pathetic ex-Conservative Senator Patrick Brazeau did against Trudeau in his celebrated boxing match.

"He has told Canadians that we need a 'bold plan' and a 'clear vision' without defining either," Garneau said in February. "On Justin's two clear priorities -- the middle class and youth engagement -- he has said nothing. We have to know what we're voting for, not just who we're voting for."

"We made the mistake last time of saying, 'All we have to do is choose a leader and everything will work out,''' Garneau said, with a reference to disastrous former leader Michael Ignatieff.

"We did not define ourselves, the Conservatives ended up defining us. They'll do it again this time unless we know where each of the candidates stands."

"I am doing the Liberal party a big favour by bringing this up. It's a difficult question but it's one that needs to be asked," Garneau concluded.

Garneau also went after Murray's "wishful thinking" electoral cooperation plan in the Halifax debate March 3.

"Joyce, have you abandoned the Liberal party? Have you lost faith in our party?" Garneau asked her. Murray responded that her plan was "about one-time co-operation... to defeat Stephen Harper."

Lastly, one of my Facebook friends says the NDP and Conservatives seem to be getting nervous about Trudeau -- and I agree, but only on the part of the NDP.

Trudeau's celebrity leader status may eliminate any chance of the NDP seriously challenging Harper's rule in 2015 but there is almost no chance of a third to first miracle comeback win by the Liberals.

So the Conservatives aren't nervous about Trudeau as Liberal leader. They are elated.

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BC Liberals likely face more firings, resignations over ethnic outreach memo from inept bunch of bunglers

Why BC Liberals Ethnic-gate Scandal Won't Blow over Soon

Part of Premier Christy Clark's ethnic outreach strategy?

Actions, and names, involved add up to more than mere stupidity.

Bill Tieleman’s 24 Hours/The Tyee column

Tuesday March 12, 2013

By Bill Tieleman

"As a government plot it is quite unique in any scandology of B.C. politics." 

- Political scientist Norman Ruff discussing BC Liberals' ethnic outreach

The strong temptation is to call the hapless hacks who concocted the BC Liberals' disastrous ethnic outreach document The Gang That Couldn't Memo Straight, an inept bunch of bunglers.

That staff working in Premier Christy Clark's office have done her more damage trying to score political points than her opponents could dream of is bad enough.

But there's much more to this than political farce performed by some incompetent aides who one ex-BC Liberal described as "a bunch of losers."

And despite Clark accepting resignations from deputy chief of staff Kim Haakstad and Multiculturalism Minister John Yap, this scandal is far from over.

Clark's Deputy Minister John Dyble is due to report on his investigation this week, while BC Liberal caucus chair Gordon Hogg is also conducting an inquiry.

Expect possible firings and more serious ramifications for the Clark crew involved, who include former BC Liberal MLA Lorne Mayencourt and ex-TV anchor Pamela Martin.

That's because there's a clear pattern of deception, deviousness and denial on the part of some BC Liberals.

The basics are simple: while political staff are expected to promote the premier, using non-partisan government employees and resources on partisan BC Liberal business, like collecting data, breaks all the rules.

That's what's clear in the 17-page memo circulated by Haakstad via private emails, which avoids falling under Freedom Of Information requests details -- and it's why Haakstad quit.

Don't we know you?

Some of the staff named in the email chain aren't in trouble for the first time. Others knew better -- and did nothing to stop it.

Nor is there any sense of shame amongst some BC Liberals.

Harry Bloy, the outgoing Burnaby-Lougheed MLA, actually rose in the Legislature last week to heap praise on Brian Bonney -- one of those staff involved in the outreach strategy.

Bonney has a history of political problems: he was also connected to an embarrassing BC Liberal orchestration of a Burnaby Hospital Committee report for party gain that blew up last year.

But despite that escapade, Bloy personally pinned a Queen's Diamond Jubilee Medal on Bonney last fall for his "significant contribution," calling him an "outstanding individual."

Bonney, who also has a checkered past in Burnaby municipal politics that includes having to apologize for a newspaper ad he partially paid for that wrongly attacked Mayor Derek Corrigan, has since left government but others remain.

'For sure'

Primrose Carson, executive director of the BC Liberal government caucus, is another staffer on the private email list who apparently looked the other way.

Yet Carson publicly reprimanded other government staff last fall, including some in the premier's office, for creating a BC Liberal Party attack website about NDP leader Adrian Dix on taxpayers' time.

"You can't be doing party work here. For sure, I would agree with that," Carson said in November. "Some conversations took place using a government email account during work hours. They shouldn't be doing that. And this is a nice reminder for them."

For sure. Nice to remind them.

So when Carson got an email outlining exactly the same kind of behavior by not only Haakstad but several others in Clark's office and beyond, why didn't she blow the whistle then and there?

Perhaps Dyble's report will explain -- and perhaps Carson will soon be unemployed.

But can anyone have faith in Dyble's investigation after independent Freedom Of Information Commissioner Elizabeth Denham last week criticized Clark's own office for a "dramatic increase" in what she called "no responsive records" replies to FOI requests in the last year.

Denham outlined how premier's office staffers deliberately delete emails that are "transitory in nature" and conduct business in ways that avoid documentation.

"The general practice within the Office of the Premier is to communicate verbally in person. Email communications usually consist of requests to make telephone calls or meet in person," Denham wrote. "Generally, staff members in the Office of the Premier do not make substantive communication relating to business matters via email."

Repeated abuse of government resources for partisan political gain, use of private emails that avoid detection, deleting government emails to frustrate FOI requests and medals for some involved in scandal all add up to one conclusion:

Clark's problems are far from "transitory in nature."

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Will or should Premier Christy Clark resign to let the BC Liberals salvage seats in election? Look to Manitoba in 1988 for guidance

Should Premier Christy Clark Quit to Save BC Liberals? 

Premier Christy Clark on TV

The obvious place to look for an answer is... Manitoba.  

Bill Tieleman’s 24 hours/The Tyee column

Tuesday March 5, 2013

By Bill Tieleman

"People are not sure of who's in charge of the store or, more frighteningly, is anyone in charge of the store."

- Manitoba dissident NDP MLA James Walding, 1988

Sound familiar?

The question of whether Premier Christy Clark should resign to save the BC Liberal Party from impending disaster has been answered once before -- in Manitoba in 1988.

But while Clark could only be forced out by a revolt of her own MLAs, then-Manitoba NDP premier Howard Pawley did what he thought best for his party and quit to give them a better chance to survive.

If the BC Liberals were led either George Abbott or Kevin Falcon -- Clark's former leadership opponents -- would the party do better and if not be competitive with New Democrat leader Adrian Dix, at least save enough seats for a viable opposition?

Or would dumping Clark make a bad situation even worse?

The results in the only significant similar example in recent Canadian political history -- Manitoba in 1988 -- show it's a grim choice.

Manitoba's Pawley held a razor thin majority and when Walding, one of his own MLAs, voted against the Throne Speech, the government was defeated in the legislature.

Ex-Premier Howard Pawley

Pawley then resigned as NDP leader and asked Manitoba's lieutenant-governor to call an election.

Pawley was quickly replaced as leader, but not premier, by MLA Gary Doer.

The Manitoba NDP salvaged 40 per cent of their existing seats by changing leaders -- even though Doer had mere weeks on the job to make a favourable impression with voters.

The Conservative opposition actually lost one seat, dropping to 25 but forming a minority government under Premier Gary Filmon while the Liberals soared from only one seat to 20. Filmon capitalized on the inexperience of Liberal leader Sharon Carstairs and the NDP's bad reputation, winning two consecutive majority governments in 1990 and 1995.

While Doer lost the next two elections he increased his seat count each time before returning the NDP to power in 1999 -- winning the first of three consecutive majority governments. Doer's NDP successor Greg Selinger won a fourth majority in 2011.

US President Barack Obama with Canadian Ambassador Gary Doer

Does this example mean the BC Liberals would be better off finding a new leader or sticking with Clark?

Averting blowout

It's challenging to draw too many conclusions in comparing B.C.'s current situation with events that happened in a different province a long 25 years ago.

But some lessons can definitely be learned.

One, while the Manitoba NDP only retained 12 of the 30 seats they had won in the 1986 election, that provided a core caucus base.

It wasn't a result any party could be excited about, but then consider that the BC Liberals are at 31 per cent versus the NDP at 47 per cent in the latest Angus Reid Public Opinion poll in February -- taken well before the "Ethnicgate" scandal hit.

When the NDP were purged by the BC Liberals in 2001, they took only two seats with 22 per cent of the provincial vote. That's only nine per cent less than where Clark's party is before any deterioration due to the current crisis.

Two, Manitoba's nearly invisible Liberal Party went from holding a single seat to 20 in 1988, becoming the beneficiary of voters who were angry with the governing NDP but unable to support the opposition Conservatives.

Had Pawley stayed on as NDP leader to fight the doomed election, it's entirely possible that Carstairs could have gained a few more NDP seats and become Canada's first female premier and first elected female premier instead of Prince Edward Island's Catherine Callbeck in 1993.

BC Conservative leader John Cummins has suffered several public problems with party dissidents and would need an amazing dream campaign to jump to official Opposition status.

But a complete BC Liberal implosion would create a sizeable pool of unhappy centre-right voters unable to support their former party or the NDP or Greens.

If only by a process of elimination of other choices, the BC Conservatives should be able to take far more votes if -- as planned -- they run a near full slate of candidates in all 85 ridings and if the BC Liberals continue to collapse under Clark.

Three, amazingly, the Manitoba NDP's Doer not only managed to salvage a dozen seats in dire circumstances, but pushed Carstairs out of opposition in the following election and rebuilt the party with increased seats until they won the first of three successive NDP majority governments in 1999.

Doer left office in 2009 to become Canada's ambassador to the United States but the NDP won a surprising fourth majority government under new Premier Greg Selinger in 2011.

If premier stays put

But there are arguments against removing Clark too.

The most obvious replacements as leader -- Falcon and Abbott -- have both said they are retiring from politics. Only another BC Liberal MLA with cabinet experience could possibly take over from Clark and the remaining choices are questionable at best.

And polling at the time of the BC Liberal leadership contest showed that neither would do as well as Clark with voters, particularly with the baggage they carried as veteran cabinet ministers under the much-despised premier Gordon Campbell.

Plus, a leadership change always creates tension and animosity in any party -- particularly if the existing leader is forced out against their will, as Clark likely would have to be.

With so few of the current BC Liberal caucus members running for re-election, their willingness to challenge an entrenched Clark when they won't pay the electoral price themselves is going to be limited at best.

Manitoba in 1988 was a different place and a different time.

But the key question for the BC Liberals is identical: can they win more seats with or without Christy Clark as leader?

Whatever they do, the correct choice will only be clear when the elections results are in.

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