Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Could Premier Christy Clark Go from Safe to Sorry in Westside-Kelowna By-election?


It's a long shot, but recent events suggest Christy Clark could botch by-election 
The remains of defeat: Christy Clark signs outside garbage in Vancouver-Point Grey riding after May 14 provincial election
Bill Tieleman’s 24 Hours Vancouver/The Tyee column

Tuesday June 25, 2013
By Bill Tieleman
"History is not on the government's side when it comes to byelections. The only byelection that government has won in 30 years was the one that I won in Vancouver-Point Grey."
Could Christy Clark possibly lose the July 10 byelection in the very safe BC Liberal seat of Westside-Kelowna?
The odds are overwhelmingly in favour of the premier, but pushing incumbent MLA Ben Stewart out certainly didn't help.
Stewart hasn't publicly complained about his treatment, but his wife Ruth certainly did on Facebook, saying she was "angry and hurt" about the "unfair" decision affecting her husband, Black Press columnist Tom Fletcher reported.
She removed the post later, but said she didn't "need to apologize" and that there was "no use hanging onto the negative..."
Stewart himself admitted that Clark accepting his offer to resign for her was "disappointing at the start" but he is "excited about the next 28 days."
An examination of both local circumstances and B.C. byelection political history -- as Clark herself pointed out -- is enough to give the battered BC NDP at least a faint hope clause of a chance.
First the numbers: Stewart was re-elected May 14 with 58.4 per cent of the vote to NDP challenger Carole Gordon's 30.5 per cent and BC Conservative candidate Brian Guillou's 11 per cent.
Stewart's 12,987 votes almost doubled Gordon's 6,790 and even if all Guillou's 2,172 voters had gone NDP instead, the BC Liberals would still have easily won.
Game over already? Not quite.
Bygone byelections
Byelections aren't general elections. They almost always mean lower voter turnout, focus more on local issues and are often seen as a safe opportunity to send the government a negative message without tossing them out of power.
The turnout in Westside-Kelowna was 49.6 per cent of the 44,830 registered voters. That means if the turnout dropped to 30 per cent in the byelection -- or 13,449 total votes -- and the NDP held its 6,790 votes, it would win.
And what was the turnout in the upset NDP win in April 2012 the Chilliwack-Hope byelection? Thirty-two per cent.
There's also a scary precedent of a provincial representative quitting to let their leader have the seat and then seeing them lose.
Ontario Progressive Conservative leader John Tory did just that in 2009, albeit as opposition leader, but Member of the Provincial Parliament Laurie Scott's 10,000 vote majority in 2007 disappeared for Tory and turned into a 900 vote loss.
So is a stunning loss likely? No. Possible? Enough to worry Clark.
After all, voters in Vancouver-Point Grey obviously were not that impressed with Clark's local representation, turfing her out after two years as MLA in favour of the NDP's David Eby, who won by 1,063 votes.
Eby has outlined the major factors for his victory -- Clark's position on pipelines, a focus on riding issues and his strong on the ground campaign.
Clark refused to debate Eby during the election and apparently won't debate Gordon either, leaving her open to allegations of arrogance or indifference.
Then there's the fact that Clark never lived in Vancouver-Point Grey, something she will repeat in Westside-Kelowna, though she has promised to establish a "second residence" there.
Meanwhile Clark's main opponent Gordon is a 40-year Kelowna resident, local teacher and director of the United Way, and new BC Conservative candidate Sean Upshaw is a Kelowna realtor. There are five other contenders.
Are you the betting kind?
BC Liberal strategists are concerned enough about Clark's potential for electoral disaster that the premier painfully reversed course on her plan to give political staffers a big pay raise as the new government's first order of business.
Those salary hikes flew out the Westside-Kelowna window, but Clark's deputy chief of staff Michele Cadario will still keep her $20,000 increase.
BC Liberal advisors will be exceedingly anxious about all political issues -- like the $300-a-year wheelchair "maintenance" fee being imposed on seniors in residential care detailed previously in this column -- and the potential for backlash against Clark.
Gordon has already challenged Clark to cancel the fee, which is scheduled to come into effect Sept. 1.
There's also the popularity standard set by Stewart, whose 58.4 per cent win last month was an increased majority over his 2009 win, when he received 53 per cent.
Clark only needs to win by a single vote to return to the B.C. Legislature, but a significantly diminished margin of victory after losing Vancouver-Point Grey would be embarrassing at least.
And even a loss wouldn't force Clark out of the premiership, though it would cause a panic in BC Liberal ranks and force the resignation of another BC Liberal MLA in an even safer seat to give way.
Any betting person would put big money on Clark to win handily and the Westside-Kelowna byelection to be soon forgotten.
But anyone who's been to a horse-racing track know that sometimes a long shot wins against all odds. And B.C. politics has a history of surprising upsets.
On a different note, over 200 people have joined my new Facebook group Wheelchairs for BC Seniors, calling on the government to not impose $300 a year "maintenance" fees on seniors in residential care. Thanks!

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12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Under the circumstances, Mrs. clark should not be elected in a different riding if she failed in her own riding.The gentle voters should reject an outsider that only has her own interests at heart and not that of the local citizens. Mr. Stewart was elected and voters deserve him as their representative. Apparently, his wish was to remain as the MLA but others forced him out. His wife complained and should run. Anyway, let hope Mrs. clark loses.

ToneBone said...

Anyone that thinks Clarkie-poo will lose this by-election is dreaming in technicolor. West Kelowna is jammed to the rafters with good ol' boy ex-Albertan free-enterprisers who just want a premier in their riding and screw the rest of the province. From what I gather from other blogs, there's gonna be some serious dirt dug up about CC in the next day or two, but it won't make a damned bit of difference. Get used to the fact that we're going to be stuck with the WORST premier in BC's checkered political history, and we deserve her.

Worker said...

There is about a 99.99999999999% Premier Clark will in in West Kelowna. The NDP candidate is a gift to the Liberals.

Really, Bill, you, Geoffie and Moe need a dose of reality.

Anonymous said...

I don't agree that Christy Clark has pushed BC Hydro smart meters on all the BC people; and no thought to our health and the effect on environment, etc. Also, this was done without any approval or going through proper channels and safety inspections for ones installed. Also, now trying to push Fortis; as the government seems tied in with the increasing rates to us poor people; to cover all the added government expenses. As the Liberals were in the hole big; and with the tv ads every 5 mins. for election? We are getting scammed with policital blindness and popularity and not looking at the issues of the Power companies influence on our lives; and the pushing the pipelines, etc. as big business; with no concern for the rest of us opposed to these costly environmental issues. The power companies are out to break us; so the government can keep up their high standards!
Beverly Allen

Anonymous said...

Sadly I doubt it.

British Columbians have already proven for the 4th time in a row that Darwinism is dead in BC.

So if Chesty Clark shows her best-assets in Kelowna you can bet the the hillbillies and trailer park plutocrats of the region will vote for BC's Sarah Palin.

The GREAT SATAN

Christopher said...

The BC Liberals and their vile policies slither through a river of effluent .Four more years of Clark and her cronies will besiege a lingering stench leaving an effluvium cloud over BC . So now it remains to legitimize this inept political waif . Acquiescent enervated voters of Kelowna are an easy destination for a disgraceful , despicable Liberal government . What does this say about the people of Kelowna Westside ? I suppose you subservient sheep will suffice in a pinch . Clark had to pick a riding where even the most egregious politician will find unabated success .The BC Liberals / Clark unmitigated disrespect to the votes of Kelowna and BC . Flipping the middle finger up and refusing to participate in another election debate . utter classless disrespectful , if thats what passes for politics in Kelowna/westside those fools deserve her

Worker said...

Just look at the invective here. Any wonder why you can't form a government?

e.a.f. said...

It would be wonderful if c.c. lost the by election. At least there might be some hope for this province. If she is elected, not so much. The charges for wheelchairs for seniors in government care will just be the first of many new taxes, levies, fees, etc.

The province has a declining income; little to no growth; low wages for the majority of workers; bad health care; insufficient funding for schools. It will only get worse.

It will be interesting to see what people think in 4 yrs when the province has completely gone down the toilet.

c.c doesn't care about the citizens of Kelowna. She is interested in herself and her continuing in her position. If the people of Kelowna grant her wish to be their mla, they may be wishing they had never done it. Anybody who charges seniors $25 per month for a wheel chair and thinks a $250 donation to the alberta relief fund is adequate is seriously out of touch and stingy.

p.s. usually your blog's cpatcha isn't working. this is one of the rare times it is. only Harvey O.'s blog has one which works all the time.

Anonymous said...

This is a stupid site favouring NDP's . I actually live in West Kelowna and I will certainly vote for Clarke. I met her today and she is a very nice kind hearted lady who will change the problems in west Kelowna. West Kelowna will be christy Clark's home.

Anonymous said...

To anonymous , educate yourself for heavens sake!!! I am no ndp' re but cc' s record as well as that of the liberals is frightening to say the least. Bc rail, bc hydro, run of river projects, therapeutics initiative, ethnicgate, pacific carbon trust high wage increases to pals .. You won't find this in the msm ( bought by the bc liberals) but its not hard to find online. - but some people ar just happy with sound bites saying jobs jobs jobs,( even though closer examination shows we are the most depressed job market in western Canada. But she is counting on stupidity, and obviously 22% of the voting public ( who elected the liberals) could not be bothered to do their homework.

Anonymous said...

To anonymous , educate yourself for heavens sake!!! I am no ndp' re but cc' s record as well as that of the liberals is frightening to say the least. Bc rail, bc hydro, run of river projects, therapeutics initiative, ethnicgate, pacific carbon trust high wage increases to pals .. You won't find this in the msm ( bought by the bc liberals) but its not hard to find online. - but some people ar just happy with sound bites saying jobs jobs jobs,( even though closer examination shows we are the most depressed job market in western Canada. But she is counting on stupidity, and obviously 22% of the voting public ( who elected the liberals) could not be bothered to do their homework.

Anonymous said...

Well anonymous Frida, June 28th needs to learn too. The NDP in 1979, was all about jobs, jobs, jobs. They've been that way in most elections, trying to sell their jobs plan to the voters.

The ethnicgate scandal was covered by MSM (which many here hypocritically hate but keep referring to).

Don't want cc elected either, but sheesh man, do your basic homework first before criticizing others.

The only thing that will get her defeated is if the BCC or BCNDP get more of their voters out to vote than do the BC Liberals.

So what are you doing for that to happen?