Thursday, August 11, 2011

HST Referendum vote turnout matches 2009 provincial election - and a good sign for YES vote to Extinguish the HST


Murray and Merv Evans staff Fight HST petition table in Nanaimo on May 15, 2010 

HST fans ex-Premier Gordon Campbell & ex-Finance Minister Colin Hansen announce new tax July 23, 2009
Excellent news today that over 1.6 million voters cast their ballot in the Harmonizeds Sales Tax binding referendum - a turnout that matches the 1.64 million voters in the 2009 BC provincial election.

And that turnout increases my confidence we will see a strong YES to Extinguish the HST vote when the ballots are counted and announced on or around August 25 by Elections BC.

I believe that the YES side will take about 60% or more of the votes - for several reasons unrelated to my support for extinguishing and my role as Fight HST strategist.

First - every poll since the HST was first announced has showed majority opposition to the tax.  Not only was this an onerous new tax but it was a massive broken promise - the BC Liberals told both the restaurant and new home industries before the election that it would not bring in an HST - and then did.

The most recent polling showed the gap had narrowed after BC Liberal Premier Christy Clark broke her own word and made the dubious promise that the HST would be reduced to 10% in three years time - and after the government spent more than $5 million on a massive TV, print, radio and Internet advertising campaign with your money - another broken promise.

The gap also narrowed after likely the most expensive and blatant big business intervention in a referendum vote we've ever seen in Canada. 

Because Clark deliberately excluded all rules that would  have limited and forced full financial disclosure of spending on the referendum, we'll never know how many million the Smart Tax Alliance paid for its own pro-HST advertising campaign.  Or how much its members the Coal Association, the Petroleum Producers, the Council of Forest Industries or other big business groups each contributed.

But a likely estimate is $15 million - and every time I've debated a Smart Tax representative they've played dumb - claiming they didn't know the total and refusing to find out for the entire referendum.  TV ads during the Stanley Cup playoffs cost literally hundreds of thousands of dollars per 30 seconds - add it up!

And throw in massive "robo-calls" from automated phoners used by Ontario-based Campaign Research and untold number of spin doctors  paid to Tweet full time and you get a very, very big bill.

But not as big as the prize - a $2 billion tax shift from big business onto the backs of consumers, who now pay far more than their fair share - an extra 7% tax on hundreds of goods and services previously exempt from the 7% provincial sales tax.

Despite the changes, the massive ad campaigns and blatant prevaricating by the premier on down, the last pre-referendum polls still showed a clear majority opposed the tax and would vote it out.

Angus Reid Public Opinion put it at 56% YES vs 44% NO in a poll released June 9.

If that poll and similar ones were accurate and 100% of voters cast a ballot, the results would be a 56% to 44% win for the YES side.

But we don't get 100% turnout - and we know now that it's about half that at 52%.

What we do know is that the 705,643 voters who signed the Fight HST citizens Initiative petition led by former BC Premier Bill Vander Zalm, Chris Delaney, myself and many others are more motivated to vote this tax out of existence. 

Same goes for the nearly 7,000 registered canvassers who signed up through Elections BC for the first successful Initiative in BC and Canadian history.

And we know that every provincial and federal government that introduced an HST was defeated in the subsequent election by voters.

On the other hand, voters who were originally opposed to the HST - part of the 80% plus who rejected the tax in initial polling - and have been either mollified by government future promises or simply accept the imposition last year - are hardly likely to be highly motivated to go out and vote to keep a tax.

Put simply, anti-HST voters would crawl over broken glass to vote YES in the referendum - pro-HST voters - outside the business supporters who benefit and those who accept BC Liberal promises as gospel - are nowhere near as committed.

So if the YES side has a relatively modest higher turnout than the NO side it should win.

And any vote over 50% for YES - more than 800,000 of the 1.6 million - means more people voted to extinguish the HST than the 751,661 votes in  the 2009 election that put the BC Liberals in power.

That would be poetic justice.

But nothing is ever guaranteed in any vote.

I've fought the HST since day one - here's my blog posting the same day Gordon Campbell and Colin Hansen sprung this ugly post-election surprise. 

It cost both of them their jobs -  because they stubbornly refused to listen to British Columbians who protested this tax vociferously and were completely ignored with disdain.

Regardless of the vote results, that should be a lesson for any BC pollitician.

But a YES vote to get rid of the HST would be a lesson for the entire country and beyond that voters should never be treated with such disrespect.

Here's hoping it's a lesson that is taught and learned later this month.


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43 comments:

Ken in Victoria said...

Well, this ordinary man is certainly impressed by Mr. Tieleman'comment If this two fingered typist, tpyed a comment on the subject, it would be exactly as typed by Sir William. Would Bill sue me.I refuse to bore readers any more as happy hour continues. This voter is so happy that the three wise men.lead the campaign If I was involved the phrase would be three and one half men. Mr. Tieleman thank you for not leading the citizens of BC astray.

DPL said...

Fingers crossed. when the HST goes down, the next step is to get rid of the lying Liberals

Henri said...

Bill Tieleman said in his column,
every time I've debated a Smart Tax representative they've played dumb - claiming they didn't know the total and refusing to find out for the entire referendum.
....................

Their not playing dumb,they are
dumb and arrogant ,that's a natural trait with many who have money or access to it and never had to earn their way.

Steve Cooley said...

I hope you are right, but no one should count their chickens before they are hatched. I have faith that Craig James will find many 'hanging chads' in the ballots.

Anonymous said...

I certainly hope your numbers are correct.

BUT . . .

I strongly expect BC's ruling "Evil Empire" will do everything legal and likely illegal to negate the results you write of.

As I have said before with the ballot box and courts of BC corrupted since 2001 they . . . ONLY CHEAT WHEN THEY CAN'T WIN.

"Parliament's and the People's Answer to this Tyranny is the Application of Roundheads and Cold Steel" . . . Oliver Cromwell (1649)

The GREAT SATAN

p.s. first on the block would be the counter-bloggers from the PAB.

Ron1 said...

Regardless of the outcome the HST fiasco, the BC Rail corruption debacle, and the sell-out of BC Hydro will be election issues - in addition to the weakened health and education systems.

Paul said...

Bill Tieleman: "But nothing is ever guaranteed in any vote."

LOL

Congratulations to Craig James who has just been awarded the job of Legislative Clerk by Christy Clark.

The job comes with a salary of $250,000 and is the top “non-partisan” staff position in the Legislature.

One quarter of a million dollars a year.

Way to go Craig.

His new job will start next month, approximately one week after he declares that the HST is here to stay.

He's earned it for sure.

RonS said...

Whenever ballots are secreted away I start wondering whats up. I have no faith in EBC and especially C. James. He's a puppet of the LIbERalS and big business. When the Yes side wins I expect a court challange by big business. After all, 2 billion for doing nothing is a lot to lose over a bunch of "taliban" ignorant Yes voters. I don't believe this will be over until the LIARS are voted out of office.

Anonymous said...

NOTE from Bill Tieleman - I accidentally hit "delete" instead of "publish" on my tiny cell phone screen again - apologies to the Anonymous poster - here is original post:

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I sure hope the YES side wins. What worries me is to what extent Craig James is willing to go to keep the HST.

Secret warehouse where no observers are allowed - Why?

They have a digitized copy of ALL the people who worked on the anti-HST campaign and all those that signed the petition. It would not be too difficult to get rid of those ballots.

I would like to think this would not happen in BC but this government has done and will do anything to keep their beloved HST.

Craig James will be moving to his new plum job with a paycheque of $250,000 a year. Nice pay back.

He is anything but non-partisan.

Anonymous said...

Fingers crossed. when the HST goes down, the next step is to get rid of the lying Liberals

and replace them with the deceiving New Democrats

Anonymous said...

Whenever ballots are secreted away I start wondering whats up. I have no faith in EBC and especially C. Jame

Ballots for counting have always been secreted away during the count. There are scrutineers from interested parties (you reading that Bill and Bill??) overseeing the count.

If the above poster is so experienced in observing a count (based on his rheotric) why did he not go to VanderZalm or Tieleman and ask to be a scruinteer agent??

But all this vile rhetoric will be somehow forgotten once the YES side wins.

Bill Tieleman said...

WARNING - from Bill Tieleman:

While this is a free speech blog as much as possible, comments alleging "criminal" behaviour are both inappropriate unless proven in court and potentially libelous - I won't post them.

cherylb said...

Well, forgive me for being not quite as certain as you are Bill.

In BC during the electoral process there are scrutineers and observers present every step of the way. From watching while people vote, to watching the boxes being sealed when the polls close, to watching the count, including early polls.

It makes me suspicious to know, that after all the $$ spent by the Liberals and the STA, (and cohorts) to influence the outcome of this referendum, that there is in fact, at least one receiving facility where there are no observers present. Why on earth, and particularly with this issue, would Elections BC take such a foolish chance that the results might be challenged due to lack of third party observation? Why change the MO now?

I hate to say it because I have always been a strong supporter of Elections BC and their integrity, but after the past two years, and under the circumstances, I am not now at all convinced that they are living up to their reputation.

I won't relax until the results are announced.

Anonymous said...

"It makes me suspicious to know, that after all the $$ spent by the Liberals and the STA, (and cohorts) to influence the outcome of this referendum, that there is in fact, at least one receiving facility where there are no observers present"

Not correct. There are indeed observers for scrutineering the count. They come from government, the FightHST group and the Smart Alliance group, plus NDP and Liberal representatives. They are there to perform the same function as scrutineers do in ordinary elections.

The reason for one facility is simple, to count in one location, otherwise if the ballots are moved around, they could get lost. The more you move something around the more chance of it getting lost.

Best to be safe and count in one location, scrutineer agents and EBC counters and officials only. No one else needs to be there. Just like a Nomination Meeting ballot count, or an election.

Henri said...

WARNING - from Bill Tieleman: Friday, 12 August, 2011 10:38:00 AM PDT
................
Bill its not to difficult to surmise what some folks may think or feel of this government and their hydro, icbc,highway maintenance ceos along with the upper bureaucrats.
Would it not be wonderful if we utilized all those rust buckets ships sitting at the docks that the Sri Lankan migrants used to come over here on to ship these before mentioned culls to some dictatorship country requiring all ready trained govt arse kissers.

Anonymous said...

ship these before mentioned culls to some dictatorship country requiring all ready trained govt arse kissers

Hmm.. Henri.. Ah yes.. Cabin 1025,
Calvalcade Level, two down from the Promenade Deck, near the machinery room aft section of the ship.

Do you need porter assistance for your bags to your cabin Mr. Henri?

cherylb said...

Sorry Anonymous 11:42 - it is my understanding that Elections BC was receiving mailed in ballots in a "secret" facility, that had no observers attending. The ballots underwent an initial "cull" before being forwarded to the EBC offices, where observers were indeed present. Is that not correct Bill?

Bill Tieleman said...

Yes Cheryl, there are 2 Elections BC processing sites - we have Fight HST observers - not "scrutineers by the way - at the ballot counting location but not the other one where mail ballots are received and sorted prior to going to the count location. Elections BC has denied our request to have observers there.

Ken in Victoria said...

First of all. I must give a shout out to Henri.This would be great if those people were removed. Then their sheep followers might wise up and see the light Next, if I read Mr. Anonymous comment, he is volunteering to go. Is he not making a reservation for the same cabin he arrived on. But he needs porter assistance. The R.C.M. P will help. As for other comments, most ideas are certainly helpful.Mr. James is not well liked for his acting.Would not the solution be a Public Inquiry? Well I must do something important and continue my research as how to start a fanclub.

Anonymous said...

Bill your logic is so backwards, if you're claiming that anti-HST voters are more motivated and that they'd vote no matter what, then doesn't a higher voter turnout indicate that more pro-HST voters than expected overcame their apathy and went to vote?

Newsflash - the referendum is over, you can safely stop misinforming people now.

Henri said...

Anonymous said.. to Henri.
Friday, 12 August, 2011 2:21:00 PM PDT
Do you need porter assistance for your bags to your cabin Mr. Henri?
---------------
Oh you foolish silly Anonymous person.
How in hell does one hail a porter on a ship.
Not only haven't you traveled much guess you never listened to Johnny Cash either, to bad, you may have learned at least where a porter is employed, but a ships steward they have a much different job description. Don't take my word for look it up yourself, incidentally I'm not Mr Henri,Henri is one of my given names.....

Anonymous said...

I think we all know, the BC people are set against the HST. My faith in Craig James and Elections BC, just isn't there.

Then we have Flaherty saying, we must pay the $1.6 billion back, we must honor our commitment deal, that was made with Harper. I don't remember the BC people making any deals with the devil. I remember Campbell and Hansen lying to the people. I remember the BC people saying, NO to the HST. I remember, the HST being forced onto us. I remember the HST, being a scam to thieve from us, to give to big business.

Then, we also have Falcons threats, Christy's lies, and all the BC Liberals dirty tactics, lies and deceit we have been forced to put up with, for over ten years now.

I have read all the documents on Christy's involvement in the BCR fiasco, on Alex Tsakumis' site.

If the BC Liberals were politicians in England, they would be in prison. There are two M.P's in prison right now, for a lot less than the crap, the BC Liberals have pulled on us, for over a decade now. And, my opinion of Harper is the same.

Anonymous said...

The 52% of people voting on the HST question is not good news for the state of BC democracy. Reaching the level of turnout in the 2009 election is more of a disgrace than an achievement. The BC Liberals and the NDP are little more than two competing dogmas. So why vote? Neither of them will listen to anything that doesn't fit their dogma. If both parties would take the time to listen to the 48% who did not vote they would learn something and actually have a foundation for public service rather than self-service.

Ken in Victoria said...

I wish to thank Anonymous for the letter dated August 12 at 8:33 pm.It's thought process explains the thoughts of many voters. All letters to this editor offer valuable information. As the sum of the parts equals the hole. The liberals have dig this province in a hole and wasted tax payer funds in an attempt to raise to the surface I seen a headline that the mail in ballot at $8.5 million is below budget. Liberal spin as they did not add the $6 million dollars paid to the Sickman and liberal ad people. What BC city can we, the people, bury the HST in. It would definitely be an attraction and a remainder that BC resident are not sheep that follow dictators. The Smart Meter and AG program for city council just BIG brother or sisters' attempt lead the sheep down the garden path and into a another whole?

Anonymous said...

I don’t personally see how either side can claim that a higher turnout benefits them. I will however credit both sides for raising awareness to the point that there was a large turnout and I see that as being a positive. Hopefully whatever the outcome is the other side will accept it and there will not be a sore loser, or put another way I hope the yes side wins so we can all be spared the perpetual whining from the ‘Zalm, Delaney and Tielemen in the even they lose. No offence but the whining strategy has become a bit tiresome Bill….time to show some class regardless of who wins.

Anonymous said...

I seen a headline that the mail in ballot at $8.5 million is below budget. Liberal spin as they did not add the $6 million dollars paid to the Sickman and liberal ad people

Not reading correctly. The $8.5 million is the cost of the actual referendum itself (something that VanderZalm and Delaney wanted after the initiative passed - and VanderZalm has endorsed the referendum as democracy). The ads spent by the Liberals, the Smart Alliance and the costs associated with the NDP (their "voter check registration" website) is additional.

As for the $1.5 billion, if the referendum passes, it has to be paid back. It is part of the deal (same deal signed with Nova Scotia and Ontario).

Henri said...

Anonymous said...
Sunday, 14 August, 2011 8:59:00 AM PDT
As for the $1.5 billion, if the referendum passes, it has to be paid back. It is part of the deal (same deal signed with Nova Scotia and Ontario).
-----------------------
Are you the same dim wit that addressed me earlier or are all you anonymous-es a little slow off the mark.
First off my two peckered friend the amount the feds "were" to pay BC for the HST debacle was 1.6 billion not 1..5 billion as you so stated, when are we here in BC to receive this payment or have we already receive it or possibly only a portion thus far.
Seeing as you profess to have knowledge of this bribe how about enlightening me on my previous questions. Me thinks you won't reply as you don't know jack sh!t of what you speak of...

Anonymous said...

It's Henri against the world!

Anonymous said...

"Are you the same dim wit that addressed me earlier or are all you anonymous-es a little slow off the mark.
First off my two peckered friend the amount the feds "were" to pay BC for the HST debacle was 1.6 billion not 1..5 billion as you so stated, when are we here in BC to receive this payment or have we already receive it or possibly only a portion thus far.
Seeing as you profess to have knowledge of this bribe how about enlightening me on my previous questions. Me thinks you won't reply as you don't know jack sh!t of what you speak of..."

Geez.. Is this Henri guys available for 20 somethings' stag parties??

Ken in Victoria said...

Due, I get the first and last word on this subject. "Henri against the world" and Henri is winning.

Anonymous said...

I am from Victoria and my name is not KEN...how about that for a nice change?

Ken in Victoria said...

Well I am Ken and I will allow the last person that commented to have the last word, Therefore consider this as not a comment.

Anonymous said...

Therefore consider this as not a comment.

If it is written and posted to a blog, it is a comment.

Anonymous said...

My comment is that a comment is in the eye of the beholder. How can a non comment become a comment. Therefore consider this a non comment on other non comments. There are too many Ken's in Victoria!

Henri said...

Comments by Anonymous-es are irrelevant due to the simple fact that Anonymous is in the same sphere as the Holy Ghost invisible and non existent.

Ken in Victoria said...

Well, It has been two days since the last word was written. Now, I have an UPlands girlfriend. She always gets in the first and last word. PLEASE, Just for once let me have that honour. Note, this is not a comment on the subject.Therefor it is not relative. Press the ignore button if you disagree,will this be the last word statement. My girl presses the ignore button on me all the time.

Anonymous said...

Just for once let me have that honour. Note, this is not a comment on the subject.Therefor it is not relative. Press the ignore button if you disagree,will this be the last word statement. My girl presses the ignore button on me all the time.

Ken has the last word. It is (as stated incorrectly above) a comment as it is enscribed into a blog.

But he does have the "last word".

Ken in Victoria said...

Well, I certainly enjoy all the comment posted.As there are hot button issues in the Province of British Columbus I will state that the voters decide the last comment will the liberal unelected Ms Clark give them their democratic right to choose her as an official fearless leader. Ten years or lark govt is enough , Ms Lark be a man and face the voters or do you just have a face for the radio. If I was in your position, I would demand approval of the citizens of BC. Please return Mr Campbell to the election front. Is he knot your hero Also where is disgraced hanson. Proof that you are a man and not a drag queen chone of Mr Campbell.This voter may only be one, I doubt you will get more than one MLA elected. Your perky smile and good looks are total superficial. What is it like to be unelected and barely get elected in VanGrey It certainly is a grey day when you arrived. But you are not boring. Be a leader stand up.

Anonymous said...

I will state that the voters decide the last comment will the liberal unelected Ms Clark give them their democratic right to choose her as an official fearless leader. Ten years or lark govt is enough ,

Clark was in fact elected in Point Grey, the majority of the votes went to her.

THat is how our system works. Let's turn this around. Suppose the NDP was in the same situation, a new leader was elected, but was not a current MLA, said person goes into a by-election and wins, and becomes Premier.

What do you do now? Same idiotic comments or "oh no, he/she was duly elected and is our Premier".

Ken in Victoria said...

Hello Mr ? at wed. 24 aug 2011 10'34. Now I am too busy to response to your slanted comment. I suggest you are a sheep that follows blindly, the just barely elect leader of the liberal party. Please continue to follow the liberals into the whole they are leading the best place on earth. Remove them perhaps that statement will come true. Must go and buy a cat. I honestly thank you for your comment and I as will others read and decide for our selves as repeated by the Sick Man on the baby HST.Tonite, I will add more to this comment. I once again I thank Mr. T, Chris and MR. V. Cheers

Anonymous said...

"Hello Mr ? at wed. 24 aug 2011 10'34. Now I am too busy to response to your slanted comment."

So why are you?

" I suggest you are a sheep that follows blindly, the just barely elect leader of the liberal party."

Say what you like, but she was duly elected by the people of Pt. Grey.

"Please continue to follow the liberals into the whole they are leading the best place on earth."

Might want to replace "whole" with "hole" to validate your statement. Never liked that nauseating "best place on earth" statement.

I honestly thank you for your comment and I as will others read and decide for our selves as repeated by the Sick Man on the baby HST.Tonite, I will add more to this comment. I once again I thank Mr. T, Chris and MR. V. Cheers

My guess is that the HST will be defeated.

The worst part of this is the obnoxious statements that will come out from VanderZalm, and Delaney.

Then there's the screaming heads during this idiotic episode brought on by the BC Liberals that continually stated that BC is a dictatorship. If that was really true, the referendum wouldn't exist.

But it did.

Ken in Victoria said...

Hello Mr. ? at 9;49 am on August 2?. First of all , this is a day to remember Mr. Jack Layton. If I owned a Jaguar, I wood travel to TO and attend. I am very proud of our duly elected Prime Minister S. Harper. As gentleman and family man, I like him. I voted for Mr. Garrison solely because he was the best man. The C. party ran a tony the one trick pony. I am sorry I continue to comment as I this Jack's day and also the death sentence for the baby GST. I am going the leg building in order to state "I was there" To conclude over the weekend I will response to your important comments. Thank you and please bare with me. Please note, that I am not attempting to change your mind. My mind is open and change is poossible.glev Have a good weekend where ever you maybe.

Ken in Victoria said...

As I was studying the 42 comments made by the people in this wonderful sounding board. I was watching and listen to CFAX. Mr. Michael Campbell always has his radio comment at the same time. Today , he ran down certain countries and ,of course, anti HST supporters. Mr. Campbell has yet to disclose to his listeners that his brother is a father to the baby HST. In addition, today he failed to mention his sibling is in London. His comments are of no value. Why is he supporting his DUI brother and his DUI face in London. Did Mr. G. Campbell not waste $240,000 on a TV ad only to be disgraced and resign. Now, I will google Mike and write to him directly to outline my thoughts on this subject. The bottem line will be whether or not he will support the recall of Gordon. A Yes or No is required. Why do I get the last word here, Mike, you can have the last word here but I doubt you are in a position to comment. Prove me wrong.