Monday, April 11, 2011

BC Liberals polling heavily in Vancouver-Point Grey riding where Premier Christy Clark says today she will run in by-election

Premier Christy Clark hopes to be Vancouver-Point Grey's second MLA/Premier this year
Innovative Research employed Christy Clark's Chief of Staff Mike McDonald until last month

By BILL TIELEMAN, COLUMNIST

24 hours Vancouver

A research firm closely connected to the B.C. Liberals has been polling heavily in Vancouver-Point Grey, the riding where Premier Christy Clark confirmed Monday she will run in a by-election, likely by mid-May.


And 24 hours has exclusively obtained all the questions being asked last week, which show Clark is concerned about the upstart B.C. Conservatives under leadership candidate John Cummins, a former Conservative MP, and the Harmonized Sales Tax.


In a news release Monday Clark said she will run in the riding vacated by ex-Premier Gordon Campbell but did not set a by-election date. It must be called by September 15 unless a general election takes place.


The polling was conducted by Select Field Services, a firm owned by Innovative Research Group. Clark’s Chief of Staff Mike McDonald worked for Innovative until last month.

Greg Lyle, owner of both companies, ran Campbell’s 1996 provincial election campaign. He declined comment about the polling or who his client is.

As previously reported here exclusively, Innovative was also polling extensively in Vancouver-Point Grey in early March.


The polling asked if voters would back Clark, Cummins, or possible NDP candidates Patti Bacchus - the Vision Vancouver chair of the Vancouver School Board or Mel Lehan - the NDP's candidate the last two elections, or an unnamed Green candidate.  Neither Bacchus nor Lehan has said they are running in the by-election.

The polling also asked whether respondents oppose the HST and if Clark’s minimum wage increase made it more likely they would vote for her.


Vancouver Island University Professor Allan Warnke says Clark should be worried.


“John Cummins adds some credibility right away to the B.C. Conservatives,” he said, adding that the party's advisory group of former Reform MPs will also help.

"Randy White is a good organizer," Warnke noted.


But B.C. Conservative spokesperson Keith Roy says Cummins won’t run in Vancouver-Point Grey.


“We’re the biggest threat to their government right now,” he said. “I’d like to thank the B.C. Liberals for finally showing us some respect.”


Warnke, himself a former B.C. Liberal MLA, said Clark would have preferred that ex-cabinet minister Colin Hansen resign in neighbouring Vancouver-Quilchena riding instead because “it’s a much safer seat.”


Campbell won Vancouver-Point Grey in 1996, 2001, 2005 and 2009 general elections, besting the NDP by 10% in the last contest.

In the past NDP MLAs Darlene Marzari and Tom Perry have held the riding with slightly different boundaries.
 
A shorter version of this article will be published Tuesday April 12 in 24 hours Vancouver.
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9 comments:

ProgressCanada said...

How likly do you think it will be that we will have an election near or shortly after the HST referendum?

Bill Tieleman said...

Not very likely - more probable in September or early October if it's this year - which is my bet right now.

RonS said...

I believe it's this year if Crusty gets solid support in VPG. That isn't a sure be either. If it's weak or she loses she'll have bigger problems at the LIbERal convention later this year. I love it! Go Sarah errrr Crusty, I mean, clark.....NOT!

PeterInEdmonton said...

Bill, if you get a party leadership race, a federal election, a referendum, municipal elections and a provincial election out of the way THIS year, what are you going to do NEXT year?

I bet that the faithful partisans of all stripes are lobbying to make sure that that it won't happen this year.

DPL said...

It would be very interesting if the Conservatives come up with a solid candidate in Vancouver-Point Grey.Even without it will be an interesting election,as let's face it, governments don't often do well.
I wouldn't lose too much sleep over municipal elections as the ones who vote municipally is always small.Time will tell and lots of pundits get it wrong quite often. It would be great to see Perky Christy get thumped like she did when deciding to be the Mayor of Vancouver.

Ron1 said...

Crusty should be polling about her support for the Enbridge pipeline and the coastal oil tankers/oil drilling.

Plenty of Point Grey voters are also concerned about these environmental issues - as well as her support for turning Fish Lake into a tailings pond.

Anonymous said...

So is David Eby going to step up to the plate and run for the NDP in PG?

Anonymous said...

Christy versus one of the finest human rights lawyers in Canada!!!

I'd work for Eby!

Heck, I even donated $20 to his nomination to the Vision slate.

Human rights before bikes!

Anonymous said...

I am for whoever can take Christy out. The BCR scam, is still not addressed, not that it matters. Our Courts and judges are corrupt anyway. This is still the BC Liberals. BC people know all about the BC Liberal crime family. BC is the most corrupt province in Canada. The BC Liberals, have robbed the people, to the point, they don't have enough money to live on.

Christy said, the HST is here to stay. She is exactly like Campbell, piss on the people, they are paying the HST anyway. In fact, Christy called us the Taliban, cause, we were picking on, poor little, liar, thief Gordie.

You can tell spring has arrived in BC. The price gouging on gasoline has well started. BC of course, has the highest gas prices.

I can't wait until my moving day. To get away from this, corrupt and evil Liberal government, This will be Heavenly.