Thursday, March 17, 2011

Gordon Campbell's Revenge? How Campbell came to Colin Hansen's rescue - and put Christy Clark at risk

Partners in thwarting Christy Clark in Vancouver-Point Grey?
Gordon Campbell's Revenge to rescue Colin Hansen - may cost Christy Clark dearly in Vancouver-Point Grey

Former Premier Gordon Campbell resigned as Member of the Legislative Assembly for Vancouver-Point Grey on March 15.

As of this evening, new Premier Christy Clark, who lacks a seat in the BC Legislature, has not announced she is running to replace Campbell as his old riding's MLA.

Why?

The answer is clear - Campbell quit without consulation with Clark on the timing to jam her into running in Vancouver-Point Grey so that his good friend and loyal soldier Colin Hansen would be rescued from intense Clark pressure to give up his much safer seat in Vancouver-Quilchena.

Call it Campbell's Revenge, for he has never forgiven Clark for quitting his cabinet back in 2004 or her ongoing criticism of his government.

Now it's time for sweet revenge!

And Campbell can undo at least a small part of the damage he inflicted on Hansen when he made the former finance minister the fall guy for the Harmonized Sales Tax. 

That fiasco ensured that Hansen could never succeed Campbell as premier  - so he owes him bigtime.

A full examination of the situation makes it clear that Campbell's actions have become Clark's first significant challenge, because he is attempting to force her hand on Vancouver-Point Grey.

As exclusively reported on this blog, the BC Liberals hired Innovative Research Group to poll extensively in Vancouver-Point Grey - significant because Clark's own Chief of Staff Mike McDonald was with Innovative until Monday's swearing in.

Significant again because Innovative's owner is Greg Lyle, who managed the BC Liberals 1996 campaign for Campbell.

That polling listing possible BC NDP candidates who might face Clark, including Vancouver Board of Education chair Patti Bacchus of Vision Vancouver and myself - and to be clear again I'm not running.

Hansen himself has been extremely outspoken about not giving up his seat for Clark - even Tweeting that he would not step down when early rumours flew long before the cabinet swearing-in that showed he was out.

Since then Hansen has been a dutiful and positive Clark backbencher - saying all the right things - except that he won't be offering her his riding.

Anyone with a political background can now see the obvious:

a) The BC Liberal polling in Vancouver-Point Grey that took place earlier in March has clearly been completed;

b) Gordon Campbell resigned as MLA after those polling results were received;

c) Christy Clark has not announced her intention of running in Vancouver-Point Grey despite it being "vacant" for two days and despite saying getting a seat in the Legislature is her priority and despite saying she wants to be in the Legislature before the June 24 HST referendum takes place;

d) Colin Hansen has repeatedly stated he will continue as Vancouver-Quilchena MLA;

e) Clark has a potentially large problem - and even if another MLA in a safer riding offers up her or his seat to Clark, it will look like she chickened out of Vancouver-Point Grey

f) Or .....Clark is planning on sending BC to a full provincial election before the 6-month deadline under the BC Constitution Act on calling a Vancouver-Point Grey by-election expires.

That last point means we could have a provincial election call by September 15 - and that strikes me as entirely possible.

For those who say the BC Liberals have already regained party unity - think again!

.

22 comments:

Sean said...

Amazing observations, Bill. TOp notch!

Anonymous said...

Christy's Crunch

Brer Rabbit cried: 'Please no, don't throw me in to the ministry of finance - I'll do anything for the BC Liberals, but I won't do that'.

Turns out that not only does the Minister of Finance get to set the direction of government by doling out dollars, but the innocently named Board Resourcing and Development Office (BRDO) is a machavellian part of finance.

What is BRDO? The mother lode of patronage. What better way to bind your supporters to you than by handing out 'favours' to the friends of Falcon?

Jobs for the boys! and the good girls... over 200 of them. All plum paid positions just waiting to be bestowed on Falcon's favourites.

Sorry Christy: you lose... again.

Anonymous said...

I second Sean - really interesting and sophisticated insights. Good work!

G West said...

Hmmm!

Did you see the results of that poll Bill?

Anonymous said...

Icky picture....

can you put some real hunks on at some point?

e.a.f. said...

If Clark is "forced" to run in campbell's old riding, lets hope the NDP runs a very strong candidate and campaign or the Conservatives get it together and give it a try.
Things might just start getting interesting again.

Skookum1 said...

Anonymous 10:49 - How about a shirtless Rich Coleman?

And yeah, though I agree the strategics you've observed are interesting....what we need to find is a leak of those polls....

This is also the first of anything I've seen indicating Vancouver-Point Grey isn't a safe seat....which is certainly how the MSM have been presenting it, i.e. as a done deal and a shoo-in. Not that we should believe them about anything anymore - not even the weather forecast (never mind the fallout forecast)....

Piker said...

I'd love to see Christy run in election/by-election in Point Grey when UBC is in full session. It's one of the reasons Campbell never considered moving the election from May to September/October. While many students live outside the riding, the CFS would make life hell for the BC Liberals if university is in session.

islandpapa said...

Good on you Bill, The toilers at Global et al are laying low waiting for permission from above.

Ron1 said...

Revenge is best served cold.

Colin seems to follow that fiberal principle.

Anonymous said...

I smell an election coming soon. Watch for more feel good announcements from CC to try and buy votes.

William Brooks said...

Bill, you see the things!
This BRDO is a strange thing.

Anonymous said...

Has to be one of the stupidest summaries to come from Bill.

First, there was no need for consultation, as it was wildly known that Campbell would step down as soon as Clark became Premier.

Second, and more importantly, Point Grey is a safe seat, as much as Quilchena is (although Quilchena is slightly more so, but the difference is less than 12%).

This makes just as much sense as the Student Society at UBC making life hell for a BC Liberal candidate.

Anonymous said...

"What is BRDO? The mother lode of patronage. What better way to bind your supporters to you than by handing out 'favours' to the friends of Falcon?

Jobs for the boys! and the good girls... over 200 of them. All plum paid positions just waiting to be bestowed on Falcon's favourites."

Big deal. The NDP government did exactly that when they were in government. Patronage ran amok.

and guess what? If Adrian Dix wins and the NDP becomes government, he'll do exactly the same thing.

Jobs for the brothers and sisters.

Anonymous said...

Does G. Campbell's sought after Fed. appointment depend upon B.C.'s acceptance of the HST (and has Campbell promised to bring Mr. Hansen with him----------for favors performed)?

Anonymous said...

"Does G. Campbell's sought after Fed. appointment depend upon B.C.'s acceptance of the HST (and has Campbell promised to bring Mr. Hansen with him----------for favors performed)?"

What sought after Fed. appointment?

If there was one, it would NOT depend on BC's acceptance of the HST.

Seems the speculation is getting more and more craptacular by the hour.

Keep at it. More comical than a "serious statement" from a few bloggers here.

Anonymous said...

"Campbell resigned as Member of the Legislative Assembly for Vancouver-Point Grey on March 15."
And Bill Shakespeare said "Beware the Ides of March."

Anonymous said...

"I second Sean - really interesting and sophisticated insights. Good work!"

Sure if you don't bother to learn the fundamentals.

Just how many of Bill's ideas are actually going to be 100% true?

Not many. I'd be surprised if only one does.

Anonymous said...

Icky picture....

can you put some real hunks on at some point?

Look on the right side. There's many pictures of Bill to swoon over.

What ever turns your crank I suppose.

Anonymous said...

Campbell did work for Harper, as we did know. There was a consideration, that Campbell may go east to work for Harper, as ambassador to Japan. Campbell had contemplated resigning. Now Harper is in the hot seat too. Harper may not be in the position, to offer anyone a job.

Campbell said, out and out he would give up his riding of Point Grey for Christy. However, we do know how vindictive Campbell really is. But, so is Christy. Hansen was very definite, he would not give up his seat for Christy. I'm sure, it's just a matter of time, until the fireworks begin. I thought I read, Point Grey was at one time held by the NDP?

Anonymous said...

I agree, Bill: an general election is probably in the offing. IMO that's why the HST Referendum was moved up, Hansen moved out and little stuff like the minimum wage swept out of the way, to prepare for an election.

There are certain benefits to Christy Clark in calling a general election as soon as the HST is out of the way. Even if the BC Liberals are defeated but she herself wins a seat (which seems likely.) Turning her party's fortunes around for the long term probably requires a stint in Opposition. There are no long term prospects with the bunch they have now.

Terry J. Nanaimo said...

Keep up the good work, Bill.

First, families' agenda will elect opposition Liberals, in six months.

Weeks of cautious,qualified answers by Clark signaled she how determined she is to find a safe seat: " Well, Gordons'seat isn't vacant yet, so we'll see ..."

This suggests the " two by-election" option will prevail. Clarks' safe seat win and an opposition loss [Mel?] in Van./Pt.Grey would quickly dispel critics and embarrassment.

Prediction: Clark and Co.will risk it.

If not, Crow with a nice salad ain't so bad. Cheers All.