Friday, December 10, 2010

TIED - BC NDP and BC Liberals even at 36% each as both party leaders exit

Like this baseball game, the BC Liberals and NDP are all tied up in the 8th inning.

- Scott Ableman photo

BC Liberals, BC NDP in dead heat tie at 36% each, Angus Reid Public Opinion poll shows after both parties shed leaders

It's a whole new ball game in BC, with the departure of Premier Gordon Campbell and opposition leader Carole James jolting a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll and two leadership elections to take place in the new year.

Needless to say, polls can often be interpreted widely to attempt to maximize or minimize their findings.

What's clear is that the next four months will be crucial to deciding which party will form the next BC government in an election I firmly believe will be held in 2011.

But did the BC NDP "blow" a 20 point lead by getting rid of James, as Vancouver Sun columnist suggested Thursday night while hosting Voice Of BC on Shaw Cable?

Is Global TV Victoria bureau chief Keith Baldrey right that: "If the NDP loses the next vote, the party can look back at the minority-led coup that took out its first female leader as it searches for the reason for the loss."

No and no.

There's lots of reasons why that isn't the case - but rather than hear my views, listen to this argument made in September 2010 - before Carole James unilaterally expelled MLA Bob Simpson, before both caucus chair Norm Macdonald and caucus whip Katrine Conroy quit their posts in protest over how that was handled and before veteran MLA Jenny Kwan went public over why Carole James' failures made a one member-one vote leadership convention essential:

“Almost half of B.C. decided voters are willing to support [the NDP], but considerably fewer see Carole James as a leader they approve of. If this gap remains, the B.C. Liberals stand to recover some of their lost support, particularly if Campbell steps down.”


The man who made that statement has no stake in the results - he is Mario Canseco, a vice-president of Angus Reid Public Opinion.


And was he ever right.


"In short, Mario Canseco says that, given Liberal troubles, the leader of the B.C. New Democrats should be doing better on the personal popularity front," The Globe and Mail's Ian Bailey wrote on September 23. "Ms. James, he says, is failing to truly exploit the opportunities of Liberal weakness and hammer home a message to deal with public concerns about the NDP’s ability to, for example, manage the economy."


At that point the BC NDP were at 48% in the polls but James' personal approval was just 30%. James' ratings slipped to 25% by early November in another Angus Reid poll with the NDP at 47%.


And then another poll came forward from the Mustel Group on November 19 with different numbers and methodology but similarly disturbing results.


With Campbell having resigned November 3,
the BC Liberals jumped to 37% popular support while the BC NDP was at 42% - the exact same level as in the May 2009 election.

The Green Party was at 10%, the BC Conservatives at 9% and "Other" at 3%.


Since Mustel's previous September 2010 poll - and despite the HST, Basi-Virk and other BC Liberal blunders, James' personal approval rating had dropped 9% to 33% from from 42%.

Equally damaging - Gordon Campbell's approval rating was only a point behind James at 32%


And now we see in the new Angus Reid poll that with Gordon Campbell gone, a large number of BC Liberal voters who had reluctantly and unenthusiatically parked their with the NDP temporarily are going home.


More on this in the days ahead but one thing is clear - the NDP cannot win an election based simply on condemning the BC Liberals and watching the government fall - they need some real ideas that appeal to voters.

.




35 comments:

Solange said...

HERE HERE!!! This is bang on the money, and I hope Keith Baldrey and others who are so apt to single out those who spoke the truth, will wake up and start paying attention, rather then spewing such pathetic crap!

Anonymous said...

Obviously we're gonna have a fight on our hands for the next election. That's why we the most popular candidate amongst the general public for leader: Mike Farnworth.

Please sign up to DRAFT Mike Farnworth for BC NDP Leadership TODAY!

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2319454899#!/pages/Draft-Mike-Farnworth-for-BC-NDP-Leader/112215175513449

Anonymous said...

Contrary to the baseball analogy used, this is not the even close to the "8th inning". The next election is not due until May 2013. In the meantime many things will occur: recall campaigns, BC Conservatives getting organized and vocal, NDP leadership campaigns, BC Liberal leadership campaigns. These events will make for a continued volatile situation in BC politics. In 2013, we could even have a 3 way split of seats between the NDP, Liberals and the Conservatives, a minority government of some kind.

Grant G said...

For a real good read Bill Tieleman...Click my name.

Or go to this link.


http://www.timescolonist.com/news/rooting+more+rebellions/3956835/story.html

Anonymous said...

It is amazing to me how many people are blaming you for this Bill. I am not one of them, but the blame Bill T game is a popular one in some circles.

Anonymous said...

I believe the NDP can win the next election. But ... it is going to take work and signing up members. Lots of new members. And this can be done because there's lots of people hurting in this Province. Get out off your chairs and cocktail parties and speak to the people in this Province that are struggling to get by.. Sign them up!!! Do something for them...and they will back you!!!!

Some have become farrrrr tooooo comfortable.

Kevin Logan said...

What we have in this poll is entirely what one would expect with both parties leaderless.

There are two long entrenched schools of political thought in BC and that is what is reflected in this poll. Both have a support base of about a third of the Province.

The huge undecided number of folks sitting on the fence is a result of the fallen leaders and failing caucuses as obviously in this state of flux folks are in anciticpation of the success of their pet politician and remain unclear which personality they would lend their support to.

This is a time to remind voters of the Liberal legacy and the unprecendented democratic opportunity that exists as a result of the leadership contest in the NDP under one member one vote. A leader has never been chosen in this capacity and significantly alters the playing field.

Finally, all the pissing and moaning that has resulted from the Schrecking crew and their handful of naysayers is all about positioning the party for a "unity" leadership candidate that can heal their much ballyhooed "division."

Methinks such a strategy does not bode well for the Schrecking crew not just because Shcreck delivered the worst leader and electoral experience the party has known but because people don't like members putting the party in jeopardy for personal political ambition.

Mark said...

Blah, blah, blah....

This is the writing of a self-serving hypocrite who doesn't want to admit that he and his playmates have re-elected the Liberals.

Anonymous said...

As a proud member of the Schrecking crew that you so childishly refer to us as..let me say this. I to think Mike Farnworth would make a great Leader and Premier..but alas the anti James brigade wont tolerate him as he thinks it makes sense to communicate with the Businsess Community. So lets put a Harry Lali or Jenny Kwan in charge that will at least get us two...maybe even three seats come next vote. Get it through your thick heads..the BC Voter will never, never, never vote for a far left NDP leader..just wont happen guys..wake up and face reality.

Grant G said...

@12:16pm...Actually you are wrong.

The public does vote for the leader, a charismatic leader has a better chance than a wet noodle.

One only needs to look at Sarah Palin, no substance, a few pom poms and a smile and loads of charm.

Obama/Clinton/even George Bush Junior had a drawl type attraction.

As for the far left policies, the NDP have never been far left, the NDP in actuality is a party of the center.

Big business prospered in the 90s in BC under the NDP..Far better economic numbers for the 90s against Campbell`s decade of deception(that is being too kind)...Decade of organized crime.

We need a clear voice who doesn`t sound Charlie Brown`s school teacher..

DPL said...

Ok, all you folks who are not working for the Liberal team, , quit bitching about assorted NDP supporters, staff ,or pundits who saw problems with the woman who somehow ended up as the leader of the NDP. Nice lady, so many folks say, but a leader not quite. Get an interim leader in place before the next week is over so progressive party members can move ahead to the, no doubt soon to happen snap election. Keep arguing and no matter what Campbell clone gets the job for the very corrupt Liberal gang, we will see you all arguing among yourselves as the NDP ends up in their comfortable position of opposition. They keep the salary and perks and we keep getting shafted. Wake up, smell the coffee, see the reality or expect many more folks to simply go somewhere else. Tieleman and Schreck appear to be on different sides of an issue, but check the other writers and you will soon see, that Bill has a better grip on the problem than David. The previous MLA's who didn't want to get beaten in earlier elections shouldn't be considered the font of information and deep though right now. So it's get organized now or else. Let's see someone in charge now not mid next month.

Anonymous said...

RIGHT ON, 2;59 P.M.!
British Columbia IS BEING NOTICED BY THE CANADIAN(HOPEFULLY SOON THE B.C.) NEWS AGENCIES as being fed up with partisan politics but mostly the corruption that has taken place in higher places in this past 7 years in this province.Direct Democracy has a nice ring to it...but representative government with integrity to the constituency voters which MLA'S represent is what can work now; if we roll up our sleeves and make ourselves heard. "Independent MLA'S" sounds interesting...if they are responsive to their constituency voters. How else are we to get proportional representation? The HST overwhelming backlash is our case in point!
Christy Clarke seems to be appealing to this new sentiment in her "sweet talking" of the general public, already.
I have not even a minute to read or listen to anything this woman has to say. I was a teacher in the public school system in the day when she ground her hobnail boots into the education sector when she was Minister of Education; she was just plain nasty. I could feel the hate...we went on strike against uniformed policy and punitive direction!
No more Liberal Gov't in this province for me.
Come on Y'all let's get going. Let's get cracking!
Very interesting that even in Britain, the students are letting Prince Charles know that tuition costs ARE THAT IMPORTANT!
The public will be heard and those in high places WILL BE ACCOUNTABLE!!!

RonS said...

agreed! we all knew CJ should have nailed the Fiberal casket shut. Instead with her fuzzy oppositon to the HST and other issues she left the casket partially open and the Vapours seeped out.

RonS said...

Here's the problem. The MSM and other want the NDP to migrate to the middle. If that happens who speaks for the left? No one! We need a party that supports families, unions (we need the "Swedish Model), the poor and the working class. We will never become governmet if we represent the middle. Why? Because we are seen as no different than the right of center who represnet manufactures and the business elite. What do we have to do? Our responsibility is to moblize the working people and poor of this province. We have to have a leader who can touch these people and mobilize them to vote. Only then can we truly have a movement that will represent change and will effect change. Until then we will be opposition only.

Anonymous said...

Who in their right minds, would vote the Liberals in again? De Jong has the utter gall to run as replacement for Campbell?? His rotten miscarriage of justice regarding, Campbell's corrupt sale of the BCR. Forcing the BC tax payers to pay, the legal fees for Campbell's crime?? How in the hell can people be so dumb. All of the BC Liberals and mla's, backed the evil Campbell to the hilt. Even backed him, when our BC children, are so hungry, they can't concentrate on their school work. The BC Liberals are monsters, they should be run, right out of our province. Campbell and the BC Liberals, lie, deceive, break promises, are corrupt, thieves criminals, arrogant, they don't have even one saving grace. Campbell is full of, hate, spite, malice, and vindictive to the point of, doubting his sanity. He will be sticking around, to act as adviser to the Liberal Party. Still want to vote Liberal???? We would be as insane as Campbell is, to ever let them back in power, ever again. We can not let what happened to this province and the people in it, to ever happen again. The new party, had better get into gear, to salvage what is left of this province.

DPL said...

I find the delay in getting even an interim leader a bit strange. What is so complicated about the process? I can't recall how long it took to select a interim guy between Glen Clarke and Ujjal D.Maybe one of the more knowledgeable ones on this blog could explain the process for us.If all the MLa's are considering themselves as potential leaders, it might present a problem but I sort of doubt the candidate pool for eventual leader will be very large. Let's get some action, well before Christmas NDP. A few phone conferences should be able to sort things out really quickly or we might start to think the caucus cant' stand a quick decision after working under MS.Dithers for so long. Get off your rears and do something NOW

kevin said...

Mark,

Deep.

kootcoot said...

Anono @9:04 says:

"Contrary to the baseball analogy used, this is not the even close to the "8th inning". The next election is not due until May 2013. In the meantime many things will occur"

The smart money says to expect a snap election long before the once scheduled for fall 2011 leadership review. Once the Libs have a new dictator, especially if the NDP is in disarray and the polls look at all tempting there will be an election. The law will have to be changed re: fixed dates in a short Spring Session - though I don't recall Harper going to Parliament to break his own fixed election law.

Also:

" kevin said...

Mark,

Deep.
"

I assume you mean Deep Piles of the stuff bulls leave behind!

Linda said...

DPL said "I find the delay in getting even an interim leader a bit strange. What is so complicated about the process?"
What is so complicated is that the caucus is deeply divided and so are the NDP members. You have a very simplistic view of what has happened -- this caucus revolt by a minority of MLAs has shaken our party to the core. I attended Open Houses for 3 NDP MLAs yesterday and this is all people are talking about. The majority of members are appalled and angry at the tactics used by the Baker's Dozen and by their lack of respect for our party's democratic structure. It's not just MLAs who are divided, many friends who worked together on campaigns over the years are now divided too. And the attitude of the 13 MLAs and Bill Tieleman and others that they can pretend nothing has happened and it's business as usual will not help to get the healing started. There has to be an olive branch extended and some responsibility acknowledged for the turmoil and trauma they have inflicted on the party.

Kevin said...

No,

I just grow tired of shallow analysis and insults from folks who dont even know me. Anyone who does would know I don't write as a self serving hypocrit, however there is no other analysis for the Schrecking Crew that makes sense.

Why on earth would they continue with the overblown BS even that has even hacks Holman shaking his head over at Public Eye.

It is obvious they were starting the narrative for a unity candidate. It is nothing but self serving succesorship planning and folks in the NDP will remember that when it comes time to put an x in the leadership box.

anonymous said...

The problem is that the interim leader may well be thrown into a snap election ... not good if it's just a caretaker sort.

Personally, I'd recommend the party allow the interim leader to run in the leadership contest ... and I'd recommend Mike Farnworth for the job.

But, I'm no party member, so ...

terrence said...

Linda @ 11:21 AM PST - your divisive, relentless, unending NAME-CALLING makes the NDP look very, very, VERY BAD. It is people like YOU, and YOUR divisive, relentless, unending NAME-CALLING that MUST STOP.

And you, Linda, must apologize for your divisive, relentless, unending NAME-CALLING.

I am coming to think that you are really a LIEberal, trying to be divisive, and to make it look like you are an NDP insider! SHAME ON YOU, LINDA! SHAME, SHAME, SHAME.

Linda said...

Dear Terrence,
Where were you when Bill Tieleman, Jenny Kwan and the others spent the past weeks calling Carole James nasty names and publicly humiliating her? It is THEIR relentless divisive name-calling that has gotten us into this mess. They are the ones who should be ashamed. I shared your message with a few of my NDP friends and we all had a good laugh! I am speaking out FOR our party and its future, not AGAINST it like Bill and the Baker's Dozen have done for the past 2 months.

Anonymous said...

Two reasons there won't be a snap election:

1. The Liberals would be throwing away 2.5 years of solid, bought-and-paid-for mandate
2. Whoever gets Campbell's crown will want to wear it for awhile before putting it up for grabs
3. Whoever the new leader is will not want to start off by breaking a yet another Liberal promise
4. Voters punish parties that subject them to unneeded elections
5. Throwing the NDP into election mode would be a sure way to unify them. Better to give the NDP all the rope it needs for a long leadership campaign and instruct Vaughn and friends to fan rumours of deepening division.
Ok, I couldn't keep it to two. Anyway, it is important the NDP take time to get this leadership choice right with a full vote of members because, despite alarmist talk, that will do more to heal divisions than anything.

kootcoot said...

Linda, you forgot to mention Vaughn the Pawn, Keith Balderdash, Less "than much" Leyne, Michael Smyth, Bill "not so" Good and the rest of the PABlum approved natterers who have called Carole ineffectual, flip-flopping, not leadership material etc. etc. for seven years until her position at the helm began to look shaky. Then she became the last great hope of civilization (when for seven years she has served as the ace in the hole for the BC Liberals).

Anon @ 5:35

You make some good points (without any name-calling, go figure). However I would tend to disagree with a couple of them (again w/o any un-necessary name-calling)

"1. The Liberals would be throwing away 2.5 years of solid, bought-and-paid-for mandate"

This would be tempting, but, it would be closer to only 2 years left by the time the Liberals have a bright shiny new leader (facetiouness intended) and IF thanks to the Chicken Little crowd personified by Ian, Linda, Mark, and the rest, aided and abetted by the usual subjects Vaughn the Pawn et. al. have convinced most people the NDP is hopelessly incapable of governing - it would be too tempting to parlay Carole's May 2009 "dive" into a six year mandate - and validate the new BC LiaR leader's mandate at the same time.

"2. Whoever gets Campbell's crown will want to wear it for awhile before putting it up for grabs"

True again, in more normal times. BUT, two years from next May may be an even scarier time for an incumbent to go to the polls as more and more truth about the last decade can't help but dribble out and the true state of the BC financial situation will be more apparent and we very well could be well into the next Really Great Depression as the blow back from the end of everyone's stimuli programs and the impending almost universal "austerity" programs becomes more and more felt by a population ever more desperate.

"3. Whoever the new leader is will not want to start off by breaking a yet another Liberal promise"

That one is funny and apparently against official Liberal policy!

I agree wholeheartedly with the rest following:

"Anyway, it is important the NDP take time to get this leadership choice right with a full vote of members because, despite alarmist talk, that will do more to heal divisions than anything."

terrence said...

Thanks for the laughs, Linda.

You do know that King Gordo the Thug LOVES you; he just loves you, Linda.

DPL said...

Linda says certain folks are disagreeing with each other.Lots of bad feelings etc. Sort of reminds me of the old story that Rome was burning but somebody ( Nero" supposedly in charge) was playing his fiddle. The quicker the NDP gets an interim leader the less likely the Libs will have time to get an election underway. Is the NDP so afraid of themselves, that nobody is worthy to even take the job of Interim while the rest quit running in circles and crying that somebody else caused James to leave. She seems to still be around. Would the complainers rather have a interim person that can gets things rolling or some woman who left in a snit?
There must be someone who could handle a short time job as interim Dan Miller who did pretty well.

I don't make a habit of doing the rounds of assorted MLA's places, even if invited. The idea of going to three in one day sort if indicates to me that some folks have not got much else to do. Crying in ones drink doesn't prove a whole lot.This internal, but noisy complaints, by the James supporters are simply slowing things down.Keep fooling yourselves and by gosh you will still be running around a year from now saying "the sky is falling" as the Libs get back in control, lower the HST or bring forward the referendum and there goes another election. But I figure some folks sort of like being stuck with supporting an opposition party. Not me, I like to support someone who has the skills to win. And one more point Linda, I am pretty far left, have supported the NDP since the mid seventies and right about now, nobody I know believed James was going anywhere but to another failure. So not all NDP Members are fighting among themselves, the ones I know are quite happy to see her go and some have said, anyone else could do better,and please fire Moe at the same time the new person gets in place.It's worth ten bucks to get a membership to vote out folks from party leadership. So let's get a fire under somebody before more folks simply vote with their feet. Sort of last like at the last election. Where is the Rhino party when we need them?

Anonymous said...

Ah. Statistical evidence that British Columbians know doesn't make any difference who they vote for because it's the same old crap.

Well, I have a plan for renewal. Let Jenny Kwan put her name forward for the BC Liberal leadership and Christy Clark could sign on to lead the BC-NDP. Gordon Campbell and Carole James can take over for Pamela Martin and Bill Good on CTV.

Oh come on. At least it would be interesting.

Anonymous said...

I just realized that 5 out of 13 is the same critical proportion as 13 is of 34!

Solange said...

People need to grow up and get over their inflated egos. Demanding anything other then the NDP get on with the task at hand is petty and a waste of time!

Anonymous said...

"The public does vote for the leader, a charismatic leader has a better chance than a wet noodle."

Technnically no, we elect our MLA, the majority from the representative party forms a government. We have not ever directly in any provincial election vote for a leader. We vote for party, and its leader through the election of MLAs.

"One only needs to look at Sarah Palin, no substance, a few pom poms and a smile and loads of charm."

Sarah Palin did not run in last November's mid terms.

Obama/Clinton/even George Bush Junior had a drawl type attraction.

"As for the far left policies, the NDP have never been far left, the NDP in actuality is a party of the center."

It is now, was not during the 1980's and 1970's. It was far more left wing back then than it is now.

"Big business prospered in the 90s in BC under the NDP..Far better economic numbers for the 90s against Campbell`s decade of deception(that is being too kind)...Decade of organized crime."

Big business did not prosper during the 1990's during the NDP's time. Economic condtions being what they were, plus the political climate, made BC a "have not" province back then.

"We need a clear voice who doesn`t sound Charlie Brown`s school teacher.."

Which leaves out Kathy Corrigan and Jenny Kwan.

Anonymous said...

Demanding anything other then the NDP get on with the task at hand is petty and a waste of time!

Demanding the NDP get on with the task at hand can also be petty and a waste of time. The NDP spends too much time debating "emergency resolutions" (and does not allow amendments to such resolutions at conventions), and they seem to be angry at everything and "fighting"
for anything...



..including themselves.

BC Mary said...

Anono @11:10

You are some piece of work, pretending to be an expert with the facts, discrediting statements that were never made i.e.

"Sarah Palin did not run in last November's mid terms.

Nobody suggested that she had. The comparison to Cluck Cluck is still on the money. BTW, one can't say that she wasn't an influence on the mid-terms, though not all good. Her hand picked TeaBagger for the Senate in her home state went down in flames to a WRITE IN candidate.

As to the two statements below. The first is more accurate than the second - altho Big Business didn't prosper as much as IT would have like the province as a whole didn't suffer anything like the tired old BC liaR meme would have it:

"Big business prospered in the 90s in BC under the NDP..Far better economic numbers for the 90s against Campbell`s decade of deception(that is being too kind)...Decade of organized crime."

"Big business did not prosper during the 1990's during the NDP's time. Economic condtions being what they were, plus the political climate, made BC a "have not" province back then."

BC's problems during the nineties had more to do with depressed commodities prices than NDP policies and the NDP never came close to posting the deficits that the LIEberals managed during boom times for building and commodities.

Also, BC wasn't a "have not" province until after Gordon Campbell's ill-advised first election corporate (payback) and personal income tax cuts blew a hole in a previously surplus budget - in order to justify the draconian reduction in services province wide.

Anonymous said...

You are some piece of work, pretending to be an expert with the facts, discrediting statements that were never made i.e.

"Sarah Palin did not run in last November's mid terms.

Nobody suggested that she had. The comparison to Cluck Cluck is still on the money.

Lots of differences between the two. Step back and see them. Palin for one is a right wing wing nut within the Republican Party. The Republican Party does not exist as an equivalent in Canada, even the political means are different between the two countries. She wouldn't last 4 days in Canadian politics.


" BTW, one can't say that she wasn't an influence on the mid-terms, though not all good. Her hand picked TeaBagger for the Senate in her home state went down in flames to a WRITE IN candidate. "

Well think again. Canada does not have an elected Senate. So there's no comparison to our system on that aspect either, Cupcake.

"As to the two statements below. The first is more accurate than the second - altho Big Business didn't prosper as much as IT would have like the province as a whole didn't suffer anything like the tired old BC liaR meme would have it:

"Big business prospered in the 90s in BC under the NDP..Far better economic numbers for the 90s against Campbell`s decade of deception(that is being too kind)...Decade of organized crime."

There was organised crime during the NDPs term, and cite specific examples where Big Business, all of them prospered profusely under the NDP. Take the forest industry. Did not prosper under the NDP, in fact the MacMillan Bloedel Kennedy Lake Division was taken out by left wing enviromentalists, costing many good paying jobs.


"Big business did not prosper during the 1990's during the NDP's time. Economic condtions being what they were, plus the political climate, made BC a "have not" province back then."

"BC's problems during the nineties had more to do with depressed commodities prices than NDP policies and the NDP never came close to posting the deficits that the LIEberals managed during boom times for building and commodities.

So back then it was global economics, but when it comes to high construction costs caused by higher cost of materials global wide when the Liberals were in power, that doesn't hold true in your mind, does it?


Also, BC wasn't a "have not" province until after Gordon Campbell's ill-advised first election corporate (payback) and personal income tax cuts blew a hole in a previously surplus budget - in order to justify the draconian reduction in services province wide.

Un no, B.C. was borrowing from the federal government as BC being a have not province in the 1990's not in the 2000s.

kootcoot said...

Anon @ 5:37, with:

"What do we have to do? Our responsibility is to moblize the working people and poor of this province. We have to have a leader who can touch these people and mobilize them to vote. Only then can we truly have a movement that will represent change and will effect change. Until then we will be opposition only."

Well put!

Anono at the end at 12:23:

You're really good at making up stuff.

It is insane that you can even bring up the forest industry in an attempt to defend the criminals currently running this province. After all they've virtually killed it off, and managed to do so during the biggest building boom in US history!

And another factor that wasn't mentioned that shows how comparable Sarah "Tundra Trailer Trash" Palin is to Christy Cluck Cluck is that they both have a habit of not finishing what they embark upon. Sarah did a half term as Governor of Alaska, Christy quit politics, then tries for the Mayor's chair in Van then signs a new contract at NW and quits to run for Gordo's chair. If she becomes premier, will she finish out her term? (not that I would care, of course)