Carole James at news conference in Victoria on MondayShe Had to Go
Bill Tieleman's 24 hours/The Tyee column
Tuesday December 7, 2010
By Bill Tieleman
"There is no instance of a nation benefiting from prolonged warfare."
- Sun Tzu, military strategist, 544-496 BC
Carole James resigned yesterday but the cause wasn't the recent New Democrat MLA caucus revolt -- it was her defeat in the May 12, 2009 provincial election.
The B.C. NDP leader's second consecutive loss to B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell was fatal to her political future. But she refused to acknowledge that fact until Monday, more than 18 months later.
Unfortunately, James decided not to consult with her caucus or the party before announcing just weeks after her defeat that she would be leader going into the 2013 election.
That set in motion a series of events leading to crisis after crisis until James could no simply longer continue.
Like Gabriel Garcia Marquez' novel Chronicle of a Death Foretold, James' political fate was fixed in advance of the final chapter.
But other post-election events masked that reality.
News the provincial budget deficit was six times larger than Campbell pledged and the surprise imposition of the hated Harmonized Sales Tax just weeks after the vote helped drive the BC Liberals into a disastrous lack of public support.
The sudden guilty plea bargain of former BC Liberal ministerial aides David Basi and Bob Virk and the government's agreement to fund their $6 million defence in the B.C. legislature raid case added more nails to a weighty coffin.
But when Campbell was forced to resign by his own caucus revolt, the reality that an election would likely be held in 2011 under a new BC Liberal premier jolted the NDP awake.
The planned yes/no review of James' leadership at the Nov. 2011 NDP convention was no longer soon enough to deal with lingering doubts that she could win a third election try.
Even when Angus Reid Public Opinion showed the BC Liberals nose diving to 26 per cent support and Campbell's personal approval rating dropping to just 12 per cent, James' own numbers failed to rise, registering only 25 per cent while the NDP was at 47 per cent.
That 22 per cent gap, despite being party leader for seven years, was an insurmountable obstacle to winning an election, when leadership is the key question for voters.
And then a Mustel Group poll came out after Campbell's resignation showing the BC Liberals rising from the dead to 37 per cent, just five per cent behind the NDP's 42 per cent -- the same results the party obtained in the 2009 election.
Mustel's polling also found James' personal approval has dropped nine per cent since September to 33 per cent, putting her just a point above Campbell's own 32 per cent.
And with a new BC Liberal leader -- whether it be Kevin Falcon, George Abbott, Mike de Jong, Moira Stilwell or Christy Clark -- almost forced to call an early election rather than govern for two years without a mandate, James losing again appeared inevitable.
James is a decent person with many talents who has contributed much to public life as a party leader, MLA and before that, a long-time school trustee.
But now the NDP must end internal battles and find a leader who can reinvigorate the party with new ideas and a vision that connects with voters.
.
45 comments:
You are 100 percent correct Bill, James was "past due" on election night 2009, but James was too stubborn and stupid to accept reality.
Now we have to suffer through the Keith Bauldry crowd trying to turn Carole into a Saint!
The GREAT SATAN
Bill, your continued comparison of the voter preference and leader approval numbers from the Angus Reid poll is a canard. James has resigned, so drop it. It is intellectually dishonest. The numbers are not comparable, as one includes undecided and the other does not, for starters.
As a Carole supporter, I must accept reality and will move on to try to elect another leader who will place the cause of social democracy foremost.
There are a number of exceptional leadership choices who could give the BC fiberals fits.
Let's move on now. I believe there will be another elecion in 2011. I don't think the LIbERalS want the recall to work and to save that embarrassment, (although they will be to late for Chong) they will call it for the spring. The NDP should be ready quickly and have a leadership convention in January, but certainly before the LIbERals.
There's lots of ammunition no matter who they have as leader. Personally I hope it's Sarah, I mean Christy Clark. I want to see her squirm when she's asked about her and her ex-husbands input to the scandals under the LIbERalS since the first election. As a Taliban (as she calls us who are involved in the recall initiative) I hope she wins the leadership of the new opposition.
Of course, in Chronicle of a Death Foretold it's implied the wrong person was killed and all involved were seriously damaged as a result of the murder.
Tieleman, there is an old saying:
"Be very careful what you wish for because you just might get it."
You may want to find some new playmates because the ones you have now couldn't organize a 2 car funeral.
May you live in interesting times.
Soooo who are your early contenders for the leadership? You seem very free with your Liberal picks. How about doing the same for your own party?
Speaking of parties, had the 13 dissidents formed their own party (lets call it the "Flowering Dogwood Party"), would you have been in favour of full party funding for them, proportionate to their membership? It might still happen, you know. I'm hearing Mr. Simpson stating on the CBC BC that he still does not plan to rejoin caucus.
It happened here on the other end of the spectrum; the knives came out for Klein, Stelmach got picked as a compromise leader and now we have Wild Rose in the ledgislature.
When do the next provincial public opinion polls come out?
What will they show, an increase for the NDP, or a decrease?
Will the NDP be leading the Liberals, or trailing them?
Hmm....in the future anything is possible. So how about this. The unhappy Liberal MLA grow courage and the unhappy NDP MLA's stand up and join together in a coalition and form a centrist majority government. Viki Huntington (sp) could be the new Premier of BC. Perhaps next week. The leader of the opposition could be Jenny Kwan or Mike De Jong....
"But when Campbell was forced to resign by his own caucus revolt, the reality that an election would likely be held in 2011 under a new BC Liberal premier jolted the NDP awake.
The planned yes/no review of James' leadership at the Nov. 2011 NDP convention was no longer soon enough to deal with lingering doubts that she could win a third election try."
Bang on Bill - and as you said earlier, this stuff should have been happening 18 months ago - who knows if she had articulated a coherent vision then (say in June 2009) maybe she could have renewed her mandate, been the leader for the election that will almost definitely come long before 2013.
The past is done. Who cares about something that can't be changed. Let's get on with the future. The Liberal party can't escape without getting rid of all the MLA's who quietly supported the HST and the rest of the Liberal BS. I know that some of them are saying that they had no choice (That's the Nuremburg defence) but they had more choice than the majority of BC voters. The NDP MLA's also had a choice. This is a perfect time for clean outsiders to fix the mess and lead us into a sane future.
Well of course she had to step aside so that the new NDP leadership can capture the enthusiasm of the electorate with fresh ideas,a vision and more than just simple answers. "Work" repeated many times is not a complete vision. It sits in the same category, in my books as the phrase "move forward".
I like the interview with Mike Harcourt in the Globe today and also the comment of 3 journalists there on some possible contenders for BCNDP leadership. These are talented people with experience that it is sooo good to hear about. Refreshing to get on with refining the NDP platform and design the strategies to become the GOV"T IN WAITING.
Will someone tell David Schreck to stop wringing his hands; everything is going to turn out alright, David. The people of B.C want change, big time!
When a political leader, be it the incumbent or the main challenger, is jack-hammered out of office despite leading in all the polls, it's usually because of enormous outside pressure from ruthless and powerful interest groups.
If the most powerful and profitable industry in the country has a hate on for a leader, that can result in their overthrow regardless of what public opinion wants.
So it is with Carole James. She was leading in all the opinion polls, and yet she was forcibly removed on the supposed grounds that she wasn't popular enough. Totally incredible.
So, what did BC's most powerful and profitable and distinctly British Columbian industry think of Carole James, and of her Deputy Leader, Mike Farnworth?
Sorry Bill, you've lost me.
This was no more inevitable than the result of the 2009 election was.
Leaders don't win elections - organization and hard work does.
Lately the party has shown few signs of any coherent organization and the hard work has been done tearing the walls and roof off the structure.
Pulling out a few 'literary' quotes proves absolutely nothing - any more than screaming about what could 'never' happen does. No one can prove a negative and anyone who tries to create an argument based on that sort of thing is into alternate history...or fortune telling!
The real facts will become evident whenever the next election comes around - pardon me if I'm not optimistic when our host talks about what was or was not 'inevitable'.
You might think you 'know' the Liberal game plan - I can tell you one thing for sure - you can't describe the NDP one because they don't even have 'game' anymore.
Jenny must go too.
I am afraid that to take this step is the only way to restore party unity. She must do the same as Carole and for the same reasons.
To avoid the inevitable MSM gleefully stoking the rift.....to avoid mistrust in caucus.....to restore the principle of unity....to avoid questions like what will Jenny do if her candidate is not elected leader or if she disagrees with the interim leader choice?.....Will she hold the new leader under threat of public attack unless she gets her way on issues?.....
If her motive was a matter of conscience and for the good of the party in her mind she would have stepped out of caucus before she went public. She would have my respect if she had done it that way, even if I disagreed.
If she stays in I will see it as an unfortunate grab for personal power at the expense of the party and its democratic principles not
a strongly held belief on her part.
She must now put her mind to what she can do to restore party unity and caucus solidarity.
Stepping down from caucus is a must.
Will you weigh in on this one Bill?
I will weigh in Dave - I completely disagree. No one is suggesting Carole James step down as an MLA or anyone else. There is no reason for Jenny Kwan to do so whatsoever.
People here who are angry on either side should look to Australia's Labour Party - where Kevin Rudd was forced to resign and Prime Minister and replaced by Julia Gillard, who then won - narrowly -the next election.
Rudd is now Minister of Foreign Affairs in Gillard's cabinet.
Or look at Joe Clark - who lost his leadership of the Progressive Conservatives to Brian Mulroney - but served afterwards in his cabinet.
This is tough stuff with lots of emotion on both sides - but the goal of the NDP should be to defeat the BC Liberals in the election that will surely come in 2011.
Awful lot of fuss for what boils down to common sense.
lets get a new leader:
Corky Evans or
Don Davies
How can we get these people interested?
I tried to find Corky's email and start a campaign amongst my friends and co-workers but he's not out there. To those of you useful with facebook maybe we could contact him that way?
Thanks Bill for all of your refreshingly honest coverage of this whole unfortunate affair. Glad to see you put the truth and the good of the party and the province ahead of everything, even though I'm sure you must have lost a couple friends for it.
There was a good chance that James could have been elected in the next election against the BC Liberals, including a snap election, but there was nevertheless an unacceptably high risk that she would have in fact been like Doer after all, as her proponents constantly claimed she was. She could have very well lost her third straight election in a row, for all the reasons you so perspicaciously point out.
"But now the NDP must end internal battles and find a leader who can reinvigorate the party with new ideas and a vision that connects with voters."
Indeed. It's going to be a wide-open race, and there's a glut of talent in the party, but I'm beginning to think that Dix would be the best candidate to reunite the NDP. He supported James to the very end and appears not to have been involved in any of the infighting, yet widely commands the respect and confidence of the disaffected and alienated progressive base of the NDP. Reintegrating those people into the party is one of the most important tasks that the new leader must be able to accomplish.
Dix could become the Ed Miliband of this race. Especially as he's very smart concerning policy and could offer a lot of ideas and vision to solve the actual problems of this province. The NDP needs to be bold and inspire the electorate, say with a public option for dental and extended health care to bend the health care cost curve and continue Tommy Douglas' dream. Or hell, why not a cancer tax on all carcinogen and toxin producers (not consumers) that would deal a death blow to cancer in the province and fund health care for a generation, etc.. etc..
Plus he's someone the Jamesists could accept. He was arguably the leading figure in James' shadow cabinet. Dix could be the right person to reunite and reinvigorate the party, and I'm not just saying this because I like the ring of "Premier Adrian". Well maybe a little.
Well thanks so much dissidents for wrecking the Party I have worked for and dontated to for over 30 years. I wont be voting NDP again and frankly if Gordo announced he has changed his mind and wants to stay on..he would most likely win again in a landslide. I hope Jenny and her silly friends are prepared for what they have wrought. Its too bad that many of the anti James brigade on this site had not taken the wise counsel of David Schreck. He has more experience than the rest of you combined.
For whomever is chosen leader, there will be the never ending risk factor of the baked dozen lurking in the very, very near background.
They have just experienced the ecstatic, ego-enhancing pleasure of excercising enormous destructive power ("our way, or we nuke the whole damn party"). And they have done so with no personal negative consequences at all.
Kind of the opposite, really. Their pride and press profile have been greatly enhanced! What Vancouver reporter or blogger or political junkie had even heard of Norm MacDonald or Katrine Conroy prior to October of this year?
How long will it be before they feel like doing it again? How much would the new leader have to annoy any one or two of them before they decided to reactivate the Dump James Formula?
Corky - if your out there and reading this:
I sincerely implore you to serve. I'm unwilling to post my personal info on a blog but if you have an email we can contact you... and you are not to upset by 200 pabs contacting you as well - please post it!
Please step up!
I agree with Bill. Carole should have resigned after the election.
The defeat rests at her feet; that's politics.
I know I will be donating to the party again (I refused after she said she was staying on).
.
The Globe and Mail has a nicely illustrated set of 6 (just like Joe Sixpack) candidates who see themselves as NDP premiers.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/six-potential-contenders-to-replace-ndp-leader-carole-james/article1827316/
All I ask, Lord, is please don't let it be Krog.
.
"if Gordo announced he has changed his mind and wants to stay on..he would most likely win again in a landslide."
Yes, and he would be getting help, of course, from the Munchkins, the Sugar Plum Fairy, the Joker, Lex Luthor, Darth Vader, the Wicked Witch Of The West and his Evil Flying Monkey Squadron...
All I ask, Lord, is please don't let it be Krog.
Join the NDP and work another campaign to ensure that doesn't happen.
Sitting at home cut and pasting quotes isn't going to do much of anything to help Adrian Dix win.
Now we have to suffer through the Keith Bauldry crowd trying to turn Carole into a Saint!
Just has we have to suffer through more of BC's Devilled Ham's non-sense and references to pre- and during WWII.
Carole is a very nice lady, and she did step down, for the sake of the party. Good for her. She could have just given everyone the finger, and refuse to leave, like Campbell did. The BC Liberals and mla's, have no respect from thousands of BC people. They supported a monster, who lied, deceived and cheated to win. A monster, who doesn't even have a speck of decency, leaving our BC children living in poverty, so hungry, they can't do their school work. De Jong who covered up, Campbell's corrupt sale of the BCR, and had the gall to force the tax payers, to foot the bill for Campbell's corruption. Want him as premier??? Campbell even had the nerve, to steal our tax dollars, to pay for his personal trip to his Bilderberg meeting in Spain. This province, has been utterly destroyed by Campbell and his corrupt Liberal party. Assets and our natural resources, thieved and sold. Some of our mills were shipped to China, along with our raw logs. Cheap labor and child labor, even more cheap, for Campbell to line his coffers. Campbell shut down 51 mills, and cost our mill workers, 36,000 job losses, which killed the northern and central BC's economy. Then, he forces the people, who have lost everything, pay this asinine HST. The provincial budget tax hikes, were enough. To pay the HST as well, is too much for the BC people's ability to pay. With what? We don't even have enough money to live on, as it is. All the HST has done, is drive costs way up. BC's HST goes, directly to Campbell's best buddy Harper. The Liberal ministers, backed up, Campbell's insanity. They are no better than he is.
Funny way to do it Bill - The party was well on the way to winning the next election - now it isn't.
And it won’t…and, sadly, I think you’re going to find the old recall gambit won’t be doing so well either…Folks are beginning to smell the stink of death on a whole lot of the ‘ideas’ from the current generation of political wonder workers.
I still think you've got a lot of explaining to do AND, I agree with Dave that Jenny (especially if she can't resist the temptation to say incredibly hypocritical and nominally addle brained things like she has said today) should take a long sabbatical from politics.
She's more of problem for a real political party than Carole James ever was.
As for what happens in Australia, there’s few points of valid comparison between a provincial Canadian situation and the national government of a country. Joe Clark was defeated in the House of Commons – which led to a leadership review. Your parallels aren’t – parallels that is. At the moment, all any NDP MLA can reasonably be expected to aspire to is opposition.
And at this point the Liberals haven't even started on them.
As for the prediction that there will be an election in 2011 we’ll have to see…my prediction, the new Premier will have de-fanged both the HST and recall long before the fall and then, pardon me, but we’ll be the ones who’re still fighting over the succession.
I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Neither the BC-NDP or the BC Liberals can say they have the election (which I agree is likely to come much sooner than 2013) in the bag.
Neither party has a chance in hell if they don't elect an untainted party to lead them Good luck with that.
It could be the best thing for British Columbians though. Imagine if we had the option of voting for a party that wasn't led by someone who owed big business, unions, Ottawa or the USA massive favours. What a concept!
We might even wind up with some people in Victoria that could tell us what the notion of ministerial responsibility means.
Wouldn't it be something if we didn't need to ask for public inquiries into the affairs of our government, or if those leading the people we elect had a sense of obligation instead of one of entitlement? The Liberals spending priorities are clear, but I cannot believe that as recently as this weekend, the NDP were planning on holding a caucus meeting at the Four Seasons in Vancouver.
They just don't get it.
Here is the difference between some one who knows how to lead and a wannabe leader who thinks she knows how to lead. When Gordon stepped down he accepted his faith, and attached no blame to others in his party, at least not openly
When Carole stepped down she accepted no blame, and put all blame to others in her party.
I say good riddance to Carol and all of her affirmative-action" cull buddies and hopefully they all disappear from the political scene and the party resorts back a forceful opposition and government in waiting.
http://www2.canada.com/components/print.aspx?id=788f5ee5-21f0-4edb-96fc-74248e599202
If my memory serves me, it was Tieleman that warned us to expect a snap election soon after the Liberal guy or gal gets into position.I think he also told the NDP bosses to get organized and quit jumping on Bob Simpson. So who was right? Bill has been in the business for quite awhile and can come up with pretty good analysis of the conditions that are needed for the NDP to win.
so lets quit arguing as to who did what, get a interim leader next week, and start collecting folks who want the job of getting the caucus, the members all on side
G West said... 11:44 AM PST
Funny way to do it Bill - The party was well on the way to winning the next election - now it isn't.
-----------------------------
G West, let me rephrase that for you.
The party is well on the way to winning the next election- now it can.
I can’t believe that some of you are even questioning Bill Tielemen on this. The Schreck sour grapes crowd needs to suck it up and understand that this decision had to be made. End of story. Deal with it, accept it and move on.
Bill
I didnt mean Carole or Jenny should step down as MLAs
far from it
Carole has stepped down as leader and Jenny should resign from caucus like Simpson.
That would be a propper move toward unity in caucus and in the party. Otherwise threats of going public over any issue that comes up is an untenable way to run things.
Try to weigh in on point buddy
@11:42 PM PST - "James has resigned, so drop it."
@6:40 AM PST - "Let's move on now."
Carole James has NOT resigned and she REFUSES to drop it and move on.
Here's what Carole James said yesterday.
The Province Newspaper
Backroom boys forced James out
By Ian Austin, The Province December 8, 2010
NDP leader Carole James blames behind the scenes party brokers for her exit.
Carole James: "Bill Tieleman didn't appreciate the fact that I've been working with both business and labour."
"There are people like Bill, like Bob, who would prefer the past."
Oh yeah, and she dumped on Jenny Kwan too.
Yesterday Jenny Kwan was going after Christie Clark and Carole James was going after Jenny Kwan.
No criticism of Moe Sahota, of course.
Today's Province article!
If Carole James really cared about the party she would be exiting with grace and dignity but she seems determined to go out like Bozo the Clown.
Dave - I will have a full posting on your comment later this morning but I still strongly reject the idea. I will explain why soon.
If the NDP is about policy, not charismatic leaders, and there were no significant policy differences, I can't see how there was a need to oust a leader who had pulled the party to within a few percentage points of winning. James was not exciting, but I don't think she scared away many voters, and under her the party came within 4 percentage points of the Liberals. I can understand the impatience of MLAs who want victory sooner rather than later, but I think that the time to replace her was immediately after the 2009 election - not now, when she had developed a strategy and following for winning in 2013. Manitoba has a different political culture than BC, of course, but I do think it instructive that after the NDP there kept Gary Doer in place even after his third election loss, he then won three terms beginning in 1999 and the NDP is still in power there. It's my thesis, and that of many others, that Oppositions don't win elections, they simply show enough competence to be seen as a viable alternative when people tire of Governments. Longevity in an Opposition Leader is an advantage, I think. Of course if the NDP finds a bright new face to lead, and takes the next election with a strong majority, I will have to eat my words. I hope I do; I doubt I will.
That Carole should have resigned on election night, 2009 goes without saying. My question to the 13 dissidents is why any of them didn't speak out immediately after Carole decided to stay on as leader in 2009. Waiting this long to pull out the knives really makes no sense to me. I suppose better late than never, but if we can take one lesson from this it is that if you are going to orchestrate a palace coup, do it quickly and efficiently immediately after an election.
Simpson says Carole told, rather than asked caucus she was staying on at the first NDP caucus meeting post-election. For god's sake, why didn't he or anyone else stand up at that meeting and challenge the leader right then and there???
Part of this speaks to the outdated parliamentary system and bizarre rituals thereof. The electoral system is as much to blame for the James fiasco as are any of the people involved.
Here's an interesting
Angus Reid poll. None of the potential candidates come close to the approval rating that Carole James had which Bill takes such liberties with in his article, of course, but that's what we're left with now.
Note that Adrian Dix places highest among New Democrats at 38% positive. Mike Farnworth gets highest at a net 15% when Liberals are included in the mix, but most likely they'd never vote for him as long as there is a Liberal alternative on the ballot (there will be).
The lowest scoring contenders were George Heyman, former BC Government Employees Union president (minus 17,) Jim Sinclair, president of the B.C. Federation of Labour (minus 26) and in last place, former MLA Moe Sihota (minus 41.)
but the goal of the NDP should be to defeat the BC Liberals in the election that will surely come in 2011.
It would also help if the NDP would finally come up with policies that are not basting small business and that they balance the interests of union labour and non-union labour.
It would also help alot if the NDP would moderate itself so that the red Liberals could support the party.
Sell the party as a product, not as a simple alternative.
If the NDP is about policy, not charismatic leaders, and there were no significant policy differences, I can't see how there was a need to oust a leader who had pulled the party to within a few percentage points of winning.
Yeah, I agree with that. If the new leader of the NDP continues the same failed policies and craven triangulations of the Jamesist faction this will all be for nought, and the NDP will still struggle to connect with the public like James did. The new leader needs to change direction and move the party back into the mainstream and the centre and away from the right. James moved the party to the right of British Columbians in many respects. Take the two most salient and central issues: the NDP is supposed to be opposed to regressive taxation but refused to unambiguously commit to repealing the HST for the most cynical reasons, a position praised by Palmer and other reactionary ideologies (James' base), but one to the right of the majority of British Columbians. And most people in BC, though perhaps feeling the NDP is too close to labour, and indeed wanting to have small business have a seat at the table in the province, regardless do not want to see political parties even more in bed with big business and corporate power, i.e. the dubious strategy of the Jamesists. Again, that's to the right of the public. Someone like Dix as I argued could be a compromise choice to reunite the party and reconnect it to its progressive base. Someone here pointed out a poll which suggests that that could be the case. There's other good candidates, and it's pretty early to say obviously, but someone like him could be a moderate between the Jamesists and more hardline Lefties like yours truly who'd in their heart of hearts prefer to see a Corky Evans, or, if available, Noam Chomsky become leader.
Another interesting question is which candidate will emerge as the one that represents the most continuity with the Jamesist approach. Might be Farnworth, but it's too early to tell. Nevertheless, I think the lesson of this whole thing for New Democrats is that the party is going in the wrong direction and we need to course-correct, this was not about James as a person at all but almost solely about her policies and their rejection by her base and most British Columbians.
the NDP there kept Gary Doer in place even after his third election loss, he then won three terms beginning in 1999
So if James was analogous to Doer wasn't she going to lose the next election?
Just because this happened once and is theoretically possible doesn't mean the odds are that it's going to happen in this case. That's a logical fallacy. Isn't a leader winning a general election after 3 losses in a row extremely rare in politics?
I just received a call from the NDP office to solicit funds for the party. I have never said no in the past but I did today. I cannot donate funds to a party that does not have a stated direction, a leader and a united caucus. So, when I see this I will consider it. The election is expected in March. Hmmm...a leaders debate between the Refed, Liberal, Green and Conservative Parties. The NDP running around outside the building saying, "What about me??"
Campbell only won both elections by cheating, and Ms. James leaves us as a hereo going out.
Svend Robinson for leadership!
Will somebody please DRAFT Mike Farnworth for leader - I don't care if he's not eyeing the job...We NEED HIM:
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Farnworth+Evans+lead+contenders+toreplaceCaroleJamesasND+Pleader/3943383/story.html
"Campbell only won both elections by cheating, and Ms. James leaves us as a hereo going out.
Svend Robinson for leadership!"
Sure, just what we need. Someone who has experience in stealing to steal from the rich to give to the poor.
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