Friday, November 19, 2010

BC Liberals drop Gordon Campbell, rise in polls to within 5% of BC NDP in Mustel Group poll - 42% NDP to 37% BC Lib

BC NDP slogan in 2007 - Dooq photo

BREAKING NEWS - CKNW'S SEAN LESLIE REPORTS THAT NDP MLA KATRINE CONROY WILL RESIGN AS CAUCUS WHIP AT 1 P.M. OVER LEADER CAROLE JAMES' EXPLUSION OF MLA BOB SIMPSON. MORE HERE LATER AS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE.



Premier Gordon Campbell's resignation has quickly narrowed the gap between the BC Liberal Party and the BC New Democrats, according to a poll just released by the
Mustel Group this morning.

With Campbell heading out of the picture, the BC Liberals are now at 37% popular support while the BC NDP is at 42% - the same level as they held in the May 2009 election.

The Green Party is at 10%, the BC Conservatives at 9% and "Other" at 3%.

The poll is not good news for BC NDP leader Carole James in two ways: in addition to the NDP holding the exact same 42% it had in Mustel's last poll in September 2010 despite all the BC Liberal disasters, James personal approval rating has dropped 9% from 42% to 33% since September.

That's likely primarily due to fallout over her expulsion of Cariboo North MLA Bob Simpson from the NDP caucus.

Gordon Campbell's approval rating is only a point behind James at 32%, a drop of 2% since September. The poll of 502 British Columbians took place Nov 4-15 by telephone and had a 4.4% +/- accuracy rate.

The approval rating and party support polling differ considerably from the most recent Angus Reid Public Opinion poll released November 5 which put the NDP at 47% and the BC Liberals at 26% but that online poll of 807 voters was completed before Campbell announced his resignation and had a +/- 3.5% accuracy rate.

James approval rating in that poll had fallen to 25% from 27% and Campbell's had risen from 9% to 12%.

Mustel Group polls have generally shown somewhat lower NDP and higher BC Liberal support levels than Angus Reid or Ipsos-Reid polls, explained in part by different methodology. And of course each poll is taken with different respondents at diffrent times.

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13 comments:

anthony said...

Well Mr. Tielman, I firmly believe that the writing on the wall has been on the wall for a very long time now. With Ms. James at the helm the parties membership has declined considerably, to the tune of thousands. As a decades old supporter, canvasser, scruteneer. etc etc. I have watched a highly exciting, forward thinking, in your face party dwindle into a party in decline. If we succeed if forming the next government it won't be because of her leadership or lack there of, it will be because voters hate the Liberals a little more than Ms. James. Oh I will still support the party and do what I have always done only because my core beliefs are rooted in traditional party beliefs. Glen Campbell

Anonymous said...

Hey AGT if you can read this check out the outhouse of infamy.(I should copyright that)

Anonymous said...

Katrine Conroy - BC NDP Party - has resigned as caucus whip.

Andrew MacLeod, The Tyee

terrence said...

I wonder if the people who took part in the poll knew that Gordo was NOT going away anytime soon. From what I have find, they probably did not know (the poll was done very soon after Gordo's taxpayer funded infomercial).

DPL said...

I wonder who might be next to step back away from James? Hopefully James will decide she needs to spend more time with her husband.

Anonymous said...

Forget the poll. The fact that Jenny Kwan is in support of Conroy's leaving as Caucus Whip says quite alot.

Cracks are showing in the NDP.

Wonder if there would be any talking about Sihota getting paid big bucks by unions to be President at the Convention.

Freddy Flyer said...

This latest Mustel poll was done between..Nov 4th...to nov 15th..

Therefore the Bill Bennett confession wasn`t considered, the flip-flop 15% income tax cut had not been rescinded yet...And the flip-flop on drinking driving was not considered, that flip flop was today...Rich Coleman has made drinking and driving more palatable!


http://houseofinfamy.blogspot.com/2010/11/cesspool-in-cyberspace-would-you-like.html

Anonymous said...

Astute observation about Jenny.

However the hacks at PC will manage down loyalists and the rest will be given the battered wife syndrome.

Carole will survive the weekend and given her adoment approach to ti all if they accept Bills Idea of moving up the review date, it will be writng her own obit. SO she will never go for it.

Hence a complete a mutiny is required or we are stuck with her till the next election.

The only hope for the NDP now is Horgan in 2017 after a disastrous one term wonder under Taylor.

Paul said...

Elections BC Political Contributions System

Evi Mustel - President of the Mustel Group

Total Contribution For This Search: $1,600.00

EVI MUSTEL - 2006/02/08 - $300.00 - BC LIBERAL PARTY

EVI MUSTEL - 2007/02/12 - $300.00 - BC LIBERAL PARTY

EVI MUSTEL - 2008/01/23 - $300.00 - BC LIBERAL PARTY

EVI MUSTEL - 2008/05/27 - $350.00 - BC LIBERAL PARTY

EVI MUSTEL - 2009/01/21 - $350.00 - BC LIBERAL PARTY

Here it is!

Paul said...

I went to the BC Liberal Party website.

TITLE = "Welcome to the BC Liberal Party Website"

BC Liberal logo at the top of the page.

Buttons = "OUR MLAS" - "OUR PARTY"

Then I went to the BC NDP party website.

Did the title of the home page say "Welcome to the BC NDP Website"?

NO

It said "Carole James and the NDP ..."

Picture of Carole James at the top of the page - "Carole James - Leadership for everyone"

"Carole James" drop-down button right below her picture.

[1] "Carole's Bio"

[2] "Carole Speaks Out"

[3] "Carole's Tour Videos"

Then I went to the Lady Gaga website and clicked on the Lady Gaga's Bio button ... etc

QUESTION: Is the BC NDP Party promoting a political party or a pop singer?

The NDP website is all about Carole James.

FACT: Carole James has now lost twice in a row to Pinocchio.

There has got to be a consequence to that.

Anonymous said...

I hope the party does the right thing and gets a different leader.

I don't like Carole as leader and have not donated to the party since she pointedly ignored a labour dispute involving scabs hired by high profile employer in BC.

Too scared to be shown supporting working folks.

Shameful.

Paul said...

Does everyone remember in November 2005 when Carole James flip flopped on an MLA wage increase? (Bill 17)

The one where all of the MLA’s remained in their seats after the vote and refused to leave and be be interviewed by the media?

She went into Gordon Campbell’s office to collude on this pay increase and backtracked only when the crap hit the fan.

Carole James: "Following the passage of Bill 17, I have listened closely to British Columbians. Serious concerns have been expressed about the process we took to arrive at the decision to increase MLA salaries, pensions and the resources to serve constituents."

Gordon Campbell: "I thought we had a deal. She came to my office, I didn’t go to hers."

Gordon Campbell made her look like a weak fool who was incapable of making tough decisions.

And yet, here she still is after losing twice in a row to Pinocchio.

The real leader of the opposition these days is Bill Vander Zalm.

Bob Simpson says that Moe Sihota has attended caucus meetings and told elected NDP MLAs what to do.

Bob Simpson: "The way that he comes into our caucus meetings and basically tells us how to do our politics as well as how to organize our time and everything else, its a very demeaning approach to things."

"The more important aspect for me is Moe is a very autocratic leader and has been exercising what I think are rights and privileges and authority that I think fuzz the lines between the caucus and the party and don’t promote more democracy in the party. And I’ve made that known to him."


Notice that he referred to Moe Sihota as a leader.

Rafe Mair told Moe Sihota on CBC radio that he thought he had a big hand in removing Bob Simpson.

Moe Sihota "I did, quite frankly"

It looks like criticizing Moe Sihota is punishable.

Anonymous said...

Well worth reading such informed, thoughtful opinions, here on your blog, Bill. My thoughts exactly with Leah's comment. I too tried to get some response from NDP L.K. with my telephone call to him; and perhaps possiblity of more tough comment/questions from NDP leadership in the Leg. Assembly at the time of Basi Virk court delays and obvious e-mail deceptions(ie erased) and excessive ALR land removals.
All one got back was lack of substance in comments if any comments at all from the NDP leadership. What would Dave Barrett say about the defense of a wonderful saving of(what 3% of the province) precious 1 and 2 quality farmland program that this province still has. He was the one that brought in the ALR in 1973, I believe! This ALR plan was fashioned after a Washington State program; you know the capitalist country to the south. Wasn't Dave also the one that set up the beginnings of the Recall Referendum that Bill Vanderzalm followed through with when he took over?? Not sure about that but I sure know that I would love to hear what Dave Barrett has to say about the future of the party, now!
Mr. Vanderzalm has done the work required(that Bill Tieleman carried the flag on Facebook for so long, so well)only because Dave Barrett had the foresight and intelligence and care for the people of B.C. to set up these programs. This is what I call Inspired leadership for ALL the people of B.C.
Anyone following the tweets coming through the TYEE HOOK, just now re; the Victoria BCNDP meeting?