Sunday, May 23, 2010

BC Liberals take another big polling hit - Mustel says NDP 44%, BC Libs 32%, Greens 13%, BC Conservatives 7% and 73% will sign Fight HST petition

Premier Gordon Campbell illustrates the gap in his party's popularity

Mustel Group poll puts BC Liberals 12% behind NDP - 73% of respondents have or will sign Fight HST citizens Initiative against the HST

Another poll means more bad news for the beleaguered BC Liberals - the Mustel Group's latest poll puts the New Democrats at 44% - a significant 12% ahead of Premier Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals at 32%, with the Green Party at 13% and the surging BC Conservative Party at 7%.

The poll also shows that 73% of respondents have either already signed the Fight HST citizens Initiative petition to oppose the Harmonized Sales Tax or intend to sign it.

Mustel says 29% of those polled have signed the petition, while 44% plan to before the July 5 deadline if given the opportunity.

And "Taxes/HST" is the top issue for British Columbians, the poll indicates.

Mustel also says that Campbell's disapproval rating is at 61%, steadily climbing from a low of 37% in January 2009.

But while the BC Liberals have dropped 14% since the May 2009 election, the NDP, according to Mustel, have not gained substantially. The NDP vote is up 2% over its 42% actual vote in the eleciton while both the BC Conservatives and the Green Party have benefitted more from the BC Liberals' fall - each party is up 5% from the election results.



12 comments:

Anonymous said...

All these polling numbers, all the bad news and any and all petitions still do not address the facts . . . the BC Liberals and their North Korean style leader have a parliamentry dictatorship for at least 2 more years.

The only option is to destroy the party with the only thing it respects . . . MONEY.

Start now with long-term boycotts of all BC businesses supporting "KIM JONG CAMPBELL"

If you turn off the BC Liberal fundraising machine, you will bring change.

A Grit without someone else's $$$ is finished since they are too selfish, cheap and lazy to ever use their own money to acquire public office.

The GREAT SATAN

Anonymous said...

Okay, I'll admit that I don't Twitter, and I know that on May 12th, 2009 the BC Liberals got slapped down for advertising on election day by Elections BC for their using Twitter, but haven't the BC Liberals broken another law now by allowing someone by the name of "Unclespeedo" to write under the Coat of Arms of British Columbia at:

http://twitter.com/BCLIBERALCAUCUS

The all to familiar blue stripes on either side of Twitter has had the Coat of Arms embossed on the top left hand corner, which means the Government Caucus can write comments there (so we'll know where they are supposedly) but respondents who are not Members of the Legislative Assembly are NOT permitted to use the Coat of Arms on their letterhead.

"1. Coat of Arms of British Columbia Source:

(1) The Coat of Arms of British Columbia is the Shield of Arms with Motto granted by Royal Warrant of King Edward VII on March 31, 1906, as augmented and granted by Royal Warrant of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, in Vancouver on October 15, 1987.

(2) A person, other than the Lieutenant Governor, a member of the Executive Council, a member of the Legislative Assembly or a judge of the Supreme Court, a County Court or the Provincial Court, must not, without the permission of the Provincial Secretary, assume, display or use the Coat of Arms of British Columbia or a design so closely resembling it as to be likely to deceive."

Is unclespeedo at http://twitter.com/unclespeedo a MLA?




The BC NDP use of Twitter is without the Coat of Arms even though they ARE the Official Opposition.

http://twitter.com/bcndp

Anonymous said...

Not much different from where they were in 2004. The NDP hasn't gained all that much.

Comment about Kim Johng Campbell is a bit over the top. Maybe Mr. Satan would love to try living in
North Korea for six months.

Ian said...

Comparing Mustel to the 2009 election numbers is truly comparing apples to oranges.

The thing about Mustel (formerly co-owned by Liberal Cabinet Minister Joan Mustel) is that they routinely underestimate the NDP vote. They are the Canadian version of Rasmussen in the US or Ipsos at the National level in Canada.

A day or so before the 2009 election Mustel estimated the NDP vote at 38%. So comparing apples to apples the NDP has gained 6% over Mustel's 2009 election prediction. And that almost perfectly fits with Angus Reid's 47% finding, which puts the NDP up 5% over their 2009 election prediction.

At those kind of numbers the NDP is currently the highest they've been in two decades.

Can they go higher? Some but not much. But then no party in BC goes over the 50% level - I'd say 2001 was a spectacular outlier.

One caveat: this poll was taken before the basi virk trial. John Les, Kash Heed and other investigations are still to come. There is a possibility that the Liberals are heading for their own version of 2001.

Bill Tieleman said...

Ian's comments are welcome and worth considering.

Mustel Group on May 7 - just 8 days before the provincial election - had the NDP at 38%, the BC Liberals at 47%, the Greens at 12% and "others" at 3% [the BC Conservatives were not listed in the poll].

The sample size was 852 instead of the more recent poll's 500, giving a 3.4% +/- margin of error.

In other words, the NDP could have been as high as 41.4% and the BC Libs as low as 43.6%, etc.

Here's the Mustel release: http://www.mustelgroup.com/pdf/20090507.pdf

The election results gave the NDP 42% and the BC Libs 46% in actual votes.

While it is fair comment to question the results from this or any other pollster, the Mustel Group results were effectively within the margin of error, and considering a week of campaigning remained, hardly unfair.

Going back to Ian's point on the Angus Reid Public Opinion poll, the 47% shown for the NDP in their April 17 news release carries a +/- 3.5% margin of error - the NDP could be as low as 43.5%.

The BC Liberals were at 29% in that poll - they could have been as high as 32.5% with the margin of error.

In other words - either or both polls could be completely accurate given their margins of error, without considering that the Mustel Group poll was taken about a month later - 4 weeks when the BC Liberals took even more negative hits.

I say all this not to defend or attack any pollster, poster or party - just to be clear that polling is subject to caveats.

Norman Farrell said...

This result should not please NDP operatives. Despite the continuous stream of negative information about the ruling crime family, the Official Opposition sits at 44%. Time to wake-up and demonstrate you guys can be trusted to be different. Making promises without guarantees won't cut it after 180 degree Liberal shifts.

The NDP should state a short list of principles regarding ethics, transparency and accountability, with an iron cast promise that the leader will resign if those promises are broken.

Anonymous said...

I have a back ordered item at Sears. I have informed, if the item isn't here before July 1st, consider the order canceled. I will do without, before I will purchase anything with the HST applied. Communities are setting up a barter system, and will only eat what they grow. The BC Liberals, made sure that would happen. The budget, taxes every utility, you need for your home. Phone and cable, have the HST applied. The HST has a very long arm. There is very little to purchase, without the HST. Between the budget and the HST together, some families will need an extra $2,700 per year to survive. Campbell and Hansen, have made such a financial mess of this province, and think their taxing frenzy, will make up the difference. It has made everything worse.

solocanoe said...

Polling usually includes those that don't vote and say they do.

In today's voter turnouts, that amounts to up to 40%. When even a small percentage of a party's supporters who usually vote, stay home out of lack of enthusiasm (when they say they still support Campbell) the picture becomes significantly worse for that party.

Slipping in the polls as much as the Liberals have is far greater and would really show through, when you include questions like. "you say you would vote Liberal but are you happy with them and might you stay home?"

My point is that Liberal slippage is what will defeat them not any particular percentage of support for the NDP as long as they do not slip as well. The difference between one government and another in the last election was a total of 3500 votes sprinkled around various close races in constituencies. And this at the height of Liberal support.

The most important part of Bill's analysis is in his headline "BC Liberals take another big polling hit"

All else is burried in the margin of errors. I think he said that too! lol

Anonymous said...

This result should not please NDP operatives. Despite the continuous stream of negative information about the ruling crime family, the Official Opposition sits at 44%.

"Crime Family"?? A bit over the top.

"Time to wake-up and demonstrate you guys can be trusted to be different. Making promises without guarantees won't cut it after 180 degree Liberal shifts."

The NDP has done 360 degree shifts.

"The NDP should state a short list of principles regarding ethics, transparency and accountability, with an iron cast promise that the leader will resign if those promises are broken."

Well they can start by clearly and explicitly stating that they will repeal the HST within 6 months of becoming a government. Since the NDP may go for a change in leadership acceptance of a repeal of the HST would be a requirement for any support for a leader. In fact Bill here should set that as a requirement before he goes off to choose which leadership candidate he'll work for. Never mind the anemic self-important endorsements. Endorsements don't do anything for the membership

Ian said...

Norman,
Here's a start: On the Hansard website you can review three member's bills laying out opposition commitments to tightening up conflict of interest, lobbyist and most importantly campaign and party financing legislation.

I believe the last is crucial. The Liberal government is fundamentally operating a 'pay for play' government where policy follows donations. That link must be broken, not just with a new government but legislation that breaks the connection for all governments.

http://www.leg.bc.ca/38th4th/1st_read/m220-1.htm
http://www.leg.bc.ca/39th1st/1st_read/m202-1.htm
http://www.leg.bc.ca/39th1st/1st_read/m201-1.htm
http://www.leg.bc.ca/39th2nd/1st_read/m204-1.htm

Kam Lee said...

"Crime Family"?? A bit over the top.

I don't think so. This government has shown outright hatred towards the people of BC. Ask yourself this one question... When the NDP were in power, did they affect our daily life? I would say no. Can we say the same about gordon the impaler and his gang? They are in our faces, our lives, emotionaly, monetarily, and illeagally. All you righties, remember that. Crime family, thats a slight to the mafia.

Anonymous said...

"I don't think so. This government has shown outright hatred towards the people of BC."

I doubt that. It will be fun to
see what evidence there is to back up that statement.

Ask yourself this one question... When the NDP were in power, did they affect our daily life? I would say no."

Actually they did. They brought in
Speed Cameras (photo radar), ICBC, increased the taxes on beer, imposed tuition freezes which reduced available seats in universities, amongst others.

Can we say the same about gordon the impaler and his gang? They are in our faces, our lives, emotionaly, monetarily, and illeagally. All you righties, remember that. Crime family, thats a slight to the mafia.

So exactly what "crimes" have been committed in violation of the Criminal Code of Canada by this alleged "crime family". Cite?