Christy Clark's Conservative Conundrum
Poll shows dip in BC Lib support as premier bizarrely called the 'iron snowbird' by ex-Reform Party leader Preston Manning spreads her right-wing.
Tuesday March 13, 2011
By Bill Tieleman
"I would rather go to any extreme than suffer anything that is unworthy of my reputation, or of that of my crown."
- Queen Elizabeth I, 1533-1603
Why was BC Liberal Premier Christy Clark -- a longtime federal Liberal -- speaking last week at "a conservative family reunion" organized by former Reform Party leader Preston Manning that was filled with Liberal-despising right-wingers?
Why has Clark hired three ex-Conservative operatives closely connected to Prime Minister Stephen Harper -- her chief of staff Ken Boessenkool, communications director Sara MacIntyre and senior advisor Dimitri Pantazopoulos?
Why hasn't Clark yet called by-elections in the Port Moody-Coquitlam or Chilliwack-Hope ridings, where incumbent Liberals in previously safe seats resigned long ago?
And why did ex-Conservative cabinet minister Stockwell Day visit Port Moody-Coquitlam on Monday to support BC Liberal candidate Dennis Marsden's campaign?
The answer is in the polls.
'Iron snowbird' dips
The BC Liberals are bleeding support to the BC Conservatives, who are a viable option for the first time in decades under new leader John Cummins -- a former Reform Party colleague of Manning's.
So Clark thinks shameless pandering to right-wingers is her only salvation to get back those votes, a big comedown for a federal Liberal once warmly thanked by then-Liberal leader Stephane Dion and someone who once worked in Ottawa for former Liberal prime minister Jean Chretien's government.
And it may backfire, alienating those who have previously voted BC Liberal but fear Harper and Manning's style of conservatism.
A Forum Research poll conducted just after the Feb. 21 B.C. budget was tabled paints a grim picture: BC New Democrats at 42 per cent, BC Liberals at 24 per cent and the upstart BC Conservatives in hot pursuit at 22 per cent.
For Clark -- now dubbed the "iron snowbird" by Manning in some bizarre Margaret Thatcher meets Anne Murray moment -- it gets even worse.
In results not previously made public, Clark's favorability rating dropped to 31 per cent compared to NDP leader Adrian Dix's "dramatic increase" to 43 per cent from 35 per cent in January, Forum notes. Cummins is also up, to 27 per cent from 21 per cent.
NDP voters are "the most enthusiastic about voting for their party; Liberals least so," Forum found, with 62 per cent of NDP supporters "very enthusiastic," 52 per cent of BC Conservatives and 46 per cent of BC Liberals.
With those results, it's not surprising that Forum's projected seat count would give the NDP a "crushing majority government" with 63 of 85 ridings.
Polls present NDP gains
In an email interview, Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said the poll was not commissioned by anyone and rejected suggestions posted by some BC Liberal supporters on Twitter that his firm's interactive voice response or IVR polling system was less accurate than telephone interview or online polling panel approaches used by other pollsters.
"We used IVR for both the Ontario and Saskatchewan provincial elections and were the most accurate poll of all the polls in both," Bozinoff wrote.
IVR polling allows a computer to call voters and record their opinions via the telephone keypad responses -- i.e. "press one for BC Liberal, press two for BC NDP, etc."
The Forum Research results also show that BC Liberal Party's $1-million attack ads and websites separately targeting Dix and Cummins coincided with Clark's decline in the polls, another ominous sign for the party.
But Forum isn't the only pollster asking questions in B.C.
Another poll by Innovative Research Group asks very specific questions about the negative or positive impact of the budget.
The online omnibus 20/20" includes questions about whether respondents think it will result in higher or lower unemployment, make the education and health care systems better or worse, if they will pay more or less user fees for government services, personally pay more or less taxes and if it will make the environment better or worse off, or make no difference in any or all of these.
Innovative president Greg Lyle was former B.C. premier Gordon Campbell's election campaign manager when he was opposition leader in 1996, and employed Christy Clark's now ex-chief of staff Mike McDonald last year.
Innovative polled in the Vancouver-Point Grey riding in March 2011 to see if Clark could win the by-election forced when Campbell resigned. Clark narrowly defeated NDP candidate David Eby by just less than 600 votes.
Lyle said by email Sunday that his firm conducts its own polling about public responses to provincial and federal budgets and that the B.C. budget poll was not commissioned by another organization, but declined to say if the B.C. government is a subscriber to the 20/20 omnibus.
Lyle noted that government purchases are a matter of public record -- meaning that the finance ministry's annual public accounts statement would report any expenditure for his firm's services. But public accounts do not list what services those costs were for -- only a Freedom Of Information request could likely determine detailed expenditures.
Regardless of who does the polling -- and both Angus Reid Public Opinion and Ipsos-Reid polls have also showed the NDP ahead by a wide margin and the B.C. Conservatives gaining strength -- it's clear that the two impending by-elections could be catastrophic for Christy Clark.
Why else would she schmooze with hard-core right-wingers speaking at the Manning Centre for Building Democracy's "conservative family reunion?"
Those people include former Harper strategist Tom Flanagan, columnist and Sun TV host Michael Coren, current Conservative cabinet ministers Tony Clement, Jason Kenney, Joe Oliver, Diane Finley, Peter MacKay and Rona Ambrose, ex-Harper staffers Dimitri Soudas, Guy Giorno, and Ian Brodie, John Mortimer, head of the anti-union group LabourWatch, National Citizens Coalition Director Stephen Taylor, C.D. Howe Institute CEO Bill Robson, ex-Fraser Institute staffer Leah Costello, Tom Long, campaign chair for ex-Ontario Conservative Premier Mike Harris and a raft of other former Conservative and Reform MPs and staff.
It may give Clark a slim chance at redemption, but the increasingly un-Liberal premier might also be on a right-wing road to ruin..
25 comments:
But the new goggles make her look smart.
Ms.Christy is concerned, very concerned that she will be dumped.so she tries to attach herself to right wingers. Seems to me that a right wing party already exists here and the person running it is not her.
There is nothing solid about someone who has to cheat to be a leader. Hard-core not as in iron but as in criminal.
Snowbird? Christy has no idea what living in the snow is all about, she is much more like our "common cowbird) and I will leave it to your imagination as to why.
christy clark the snowbird hopefully will nest somwhere far from here .she has proven to me beyond reasonable doubt i can not trust her and her government. her attack ads against the ndp will only confirm me they are worth voting for .
The whole exercise makes me wonder if Christy isn't preparing herself for a more Federal position.
Ms.Christy is concerned, very concerned that she will be dumped.so she tries to attach herself to right wingers. Seems to me that a right wing party already exists here and the person running it is not her.
DPL has it wrong (as per usual). Manning does not represent 100% of the right wingers out there. Not even close.
Many regard Manning as old news who has had his day a long time ago.
Its ony the very right wing that still consider Manning as a bit of political hero.
Sort of like some federal Liberals still regard Trudeau a bit of a hero.
and some NDPer still regard Glen Clark as the best thing there ever was in politics.
It would appear that Christy is cozying up with the likes of Phil Hochstein, President of the Independent Contractors and Businesses Association of BC. The latest attack ads only solidify just how corrupt you and the CC minions are.(Never mind Global TV).
You say Fast Ferries, the voters are here to remind you of the B.C. (Telus)Place scandal.Plus it's hard to forget all the other scandals since 2001, Phil. Negative ads do nothing in the 21st century except for more wasted government money and less votes. 14 months to go.
Looks like Crusty is trying to look like Clark Kent with her Clark Kent glasses, or is that Clark Christy glasses?. Does that make her Superwoman in disguise?
it isn't going to work. The middle of the roaders won't like cc cozying up to the "reformers", the "reformers/neo-c0ns" already have their leader-Cummings. I suspect they are "welcoming" her in a hope to alienate what is left of her base & then roll over her or suggest she join them & then dump her after they have a toe hold.
c.c. looks less than impressive this evening on the news saying the Telus deal wasn't good enough. Ya, well I sure would like the $35-$40 Million to go into the provincial coffers & I don't see anyone else stepping up. Her buddy the billionare who owns the WhiteCaps may like her, but not $40 million worth.
I loved the press release from the Pattison group. c.c. really knows how to piss of people with out really trying. First Telus, then the Pattison Group by inferring the sign wasn't up to scratch. Way to go c.c.
You would think someone would suggest they look before they talk.
Negative ads do nothing in the 21st century except for more wasted government money and less votes. 14 months to go.
So I gather from this, the NDP won't produce any negative ads of their own?
Good. Glad to see 'em gone, and want to see what the NDP is going to offer.
Much easier to criticize than to come up with workable solutions.
The pitiful state of the NDP, look at the online version of the Globe and Mail right now (as of 10pm Tuesday) and the only coverage of the leadership debate is featured in the "Arts" section of the paper (classic NDP right there) and the title to the story reads, "I watched the NDP leadership debate. Someone had too!" Is this the coverage the "Official Opposition" gets from a paper out of Toronto? Wow, I'm not impressed.
Our perky Premier is an intellectual - hence the glasses.
She attended SFU, Edinburgh, and the Sorbonne.
Never graduated from any of them - but, hey, sahe had a fun time.
According to Alex Tsakumis she was caught in election fraud for the SFU student government Presidency.
Good practice for the forthcoming provincial election - in which the BC fiberals will set new standards of low behaviour.
Its good to see the BC Liberal PAB backing their horse again!
Its good to see the BC Liberal PAB backing their horse again!
It will be good to see the NDP blindly loyal blog contributers attempt to defend the misdeeds of a Premier Adrian Dix government.
and also to see how they can live without complaining and whining about the BC Liberals as they won't exist as government.
Someone had too!" Is this the coverage the "Official Opposition" gets from a paper out of Toronto? Wow, I'm not impressed.
Why would you be? The blogsphere absolutely hates the MSM, remember.
Unless of course that "hate" is selective, and of oourse no one here hates MSM when Bill here is a guest star on a show.
Between robo-calls and attack ads, I think we are weary of them all.
The Campbell/Clark BC Liberals expenses are an outrage. The Liberals government credit cards, are a very terrible abuse of our tax dollars. Seems Ida Chong has added gallons of wine, to her food bill. Seems other ministers have done the same. We even paid for nail salon visits.
Laila Yuile has a very good post on these, government credit card abuses by our politicians. Those expenses are, out and out criminal.
"So I gather from this, the NDP won't produce any negative ads of their own?"
There better be, but it will be privately funded, not like all the anti-teacher propaganda and so on.
Plus there will be lots of issues with this bunch of criminals. No need to go back to the 20th century to find corruption.
So what is the real deal with Telus? Inquiring minds want to know.
It should be really clear that the the Harper/CRAP party trying an under the table coup d'etat on the unsuspecting peasants in BC.
Christy Crunch's office is polluted with Harper operatives and the msm is,as usual, wandering around as if they have been stuck dumb.
Harper wasn't sitting around in a cold ice rink watching Crunchies offspring play hockey for nothing.
CGHZD
It should be really clear that the the Harper/CRAP party trying an under the table coup d'etat on the unsuspecting peasants in BC.
Christy Crunch's office is polluted with Harper operatives and the msm is,as usual, wandering around as if they have been stuck dumb.
The only person stuck dumb is the poster.
CRAP party doesn't exist and hasn't since 2000. It was a stupid ly re-named Alliance, but that label lasted only for a day or so.
"Harper wasn't sitting around in a cold ice rink watching Crunchies offspring play hockey for nothing."
Would a Prime Minister Mulcair meet the offspring of Premier Dix?
There better be, but it will be privately funded, not like all the anti-teacher propaganda and so on.
Privately funded, an NDP blogger's ass. Such ads would come from the BC Federation of Labour, the BCTF, the HEU and probably an oblique group calling itself some kind of People's Coalition.
"Plus there will be lots of issues with this bunch of criminals. No need to go back to the 20th century to find corruption."
Well we can start now, with one. Exactly what Section of the Criminal Code of Canada has "this bunch of criminals" be in contravention of? Cite? Have you filed a complaint with a Crown Prosecutor?
So what is the real deal with Telus? Inquiring minds want to know.
Quite simply, a better deal can be had.
It's really laughable that a group of people go after Big Corporations and yet coddle and cry with Telus (a Big Corporation) on such an issue.
The $40 million can easily be covered by advertising elsewhere.
Telus simply bit off more than they agreed to, and no deal was ever finalised to the bottom line signature.
The whole exercise makes me wonder if Christy isn't preparing herself for a more Federal position.
and what eactly would that be?
Unless the federal Liberals are re-elected with a majority, which isn't likely, Christy Crunch isn't going to any federal post. The harper government doesn't like her either.
I think that the Iron Snowbird and Stockwell Day should jump on a seadoo and head south together. Iron Snowbird can flap her right wing to add propulsion.
I think that the Iron Snowbird and Stockwell Day should jump on a seadoo and head south together. Iron Snowbird can flap her right wing to add propulsion.
Good idea. Rent a Seadoo and give Stockwell a refresher course by starting at the White Rock Pier and going south across the border.
Keep going until you reach Seattle.
"Well we can start now, with one. Exactly what Section of the Criminal Code of Canada has "this bunch of criminals" be in contravention of? Cite? Have you filed a complaint with a Crown Prosecutor?"
Last time I heard, insider trading was still a crime. Just because you have not been caught doesn't mean you are not a criminal.
I think it is time, pas time really,
for Chrisy and all her Minstrals to
melt away as snow in summer simply for the salavation of B. C. Her antics and those of her government
belong in Alice in Wonderland.
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