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| Stephen Harper - winning! |
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| Jack Layton - Official Opposition Leader |
Bill Tieleman’s 24 Hours/The Tyee column
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Long gun registry, "strategic" voting among many casualties
By Bill Tieleman
A majority is always better than the best repartee.
- Benjamin Disraeli, British prime minister, 1804-1881
In this stunningly exciting federal election two parties were devastated and two – the Conservatives and the New Democrats – absolutely elated.
NDP leader Jack Layton’s “Orange Crush” has fundamentally changed national politics and the near total Liberal and Bloc Quebecois collapse let the Conservatives easily gain their much-wanted majority government.
The NDP bashed the Liberals into third place to achieve their dream of becoming official opposition and absolutely devastated the Bloc Quebecois and their separatist goal.
The Conservatives get their first majority government under Prime Minister Stephen Harper despite his campaigning in a bubble and avoiding most media questioning. Harper’s voters really don’t care.
The results sadly vindicate the Conservative strategy of demonizing Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff with negative attack ads, damaging his credibility so much the NDP leapfrogged into second place.
But Ignatieff was also the overly academic author of his own demise.
Now the Tories and NDP have four years to solidify their positions – and marginalize their opponents.
Ignatieff’s failure to connect with voters means the party will seek its third new leader in three years.
Neither a discredited Bob Rae nor an unremarkable Justin Trudeau can rescue the Liberals.
But the Bloc’s near elimination by the federalist NDP is a death blow to separatism and Gilles Duceppe’s leadership.
Harper is now in the position he has wanted since becoming Conservative leader –a four-year mandate with control of Parliament.
And that's not a huge surprise. In my column of March 29 I predicted a majority Tory win was likely - and many readers strongly criticized me for doing so, but the results speak for themselves.
At that time I wrote:
"Friday's opposition vote to defeat the Conservative government for "contempt of Parliament" was an exercise in self-delusion, testosterone and faulty logic that will surely result in Stephen Harper returning after the May 2 election as prime minister -- and likely with a majority....."
"The Liberals, NDP and Bloc argued somewhat persuasively that the Conservatives were in contempt of Parliament over their disdain for democracy, openness and accountability."
"So why did the opposition parties foolishly believe that the best way to restore those values is to give Stephen Harper an excellent chance to win a four-year majority?"
"Now voters who deeply fear a Stephen Harper government with untrammelled power have to feverishly hope the Conservatives do what they will be desperately avoiding -- make a huge campaign mistake."
"Nothing less can stop their drive to majority power," I concluded.
So, will Harper wisely moderate his party’s right-wing red meat demands and instead occupy the centre of the political spectrum?
Or will he throw them steaks – like dismantling the CBC, privatized health care or slashing public services to pay for corporate tax cuts? Count on the long gun registry to die along with public funding for political parties and much more.
Also deceased – strategic voting. The idea of changing the results in ridings with small margins of victory with an ABC campaign – Anybody But Conservative – showed yet again it is a failing strategy, especially when two competing parties completely deflate.
Jack Layton won big. His appealing personality was backed with an excellent campaign that focused on key voter issues like job protection, retirement security, the environment and public health care.
Now Layton has four years to prepare for a classic left-right battle against Harper’s Conservatives – if he can dispatch the Liberals to political history before the next election.
And the election is a warning sign for B.C. Liberal Premier Christy Clark – the long-time federal Liberal may want to avoid a general election. at least until the Orange Crush runs out.
.
44 comments:
This is quite possibly the first time I agree with you. Where were you during the STV referendum??... You've also ripped into Libs for yrs. It's taken its toll from both sides and now we have to live with it foe 4 yrs in House, Senate and Supreme Court. Thanks NDP supporters.
Yes agood reason for voter reform from first past the post.
Oh Canada our God forsaken Land Ruled by the minority again.
Bring on real democracy - Proportional Representation or STV - I don't care which - but for God's sake dump this FPP stupidity...
An extremely black day for Canada.
This monster will screw over Canada in ways most will never dreamed exited.
Four years of dictatorial hell ahead.
For those that voted for this sociopath, In hope that they will be hurt the most.
will the Liberals split three ways?
Even more of he social liberals drifting to the NDP.
Even more of the business Liberals drifting to the Conservatives.
And a small rump ever-faithful to their grandparent's party?
Bill,
I hate to say it, but you called it on the Harpo majority. Christie's"not the Federal Liberals" take note. Can Orange crush keep the 'mo and beat her in her by-election? Here's hoping DIx can beat his own path and put the Fibs in the penalty box for two terms at least.
One of the Liberal back room boys stated last evening, before the votes were counted, that the right wing side of the Liberals went to the conservatives to try to stop the NDP surge. Yep strategic voting sure can mess things up.Harper with his constant comment about the danger of a coalition, and the NDP leading it sure scared some folks. Now its no excuses, Harpo, about the opposition ganging up. Its time to do something of benefit to Canada. I doubt he can deliver on his BS about lowering taxes, safer streets and a few other conservative fairy tails. The Globe today was quite nasty about everyone but Pee Wee, so business is happy and to hell with the rest of us
Harper actually increased the number of seats, so it isn't an abysmal loss. The NDP gained a huge number of seats, but more than half of them are in Quebec, so Layton will have a huge challenge with new neophyte MPs.
As for strategic voting, it does not work, and neither does vote sharing.
It was said, 60% of Canadians, did not want Harper as P.M. Yet he won???
We will be living, in a terrible, dictatorship regime.
The every day Canadian, will have a miserable life. Harper gives billions of our tax dollars, to the wealthiest corporations in the world. Layton did capitulate to Harper's demand, that he gives the wealthy company's, another tax reduction. Layton will do as Harper says.
Harper hates the internet. I don't doubt it will be controlled. Harper won't even allow scientists to publish, the results of their research.
Our health care could go private. Harper has spent billions upon billions, on wars, jets and prisons to be built. Harper is cutting $11 billion from the budget. We will lose services, that we are taxed through the nose for.
I believe, Canada will become, the U.S.A's largest state, along with Mexico, as another U.S. state.
Great day. Well done Mr Harper. Let's go farther right and destroy the left. Already can hear four-peat. Four-peat. Four-peat!!!!!
"It was said, 60% of Canadians, did not want Harper as P.M. Yet he won???"
What's wrong with that? Same could be said for the NDP in B.C.
"We will be living, in a terrible, dictatorship regime."
You've neber seen a real dictatorship, nor lived in one. Try one of the Arabian countries such as Libya.
"The every day Canadian, will have a miserable life. Harper gives billions of our tax dollars, to the wealthiest corporations in the world. Layton did capitulate to Harper's demand, that he gives the wealthy company's, another tax reduction. Layton will do as Harper says."
So what about those who didn't want the NDP in their riding, but ended up with one anyway? The only thing an NDP MP can do is talk.
"Harper hates the internet. I don't doubt it will be controlled. Harper won't even allow scientists to publish, the results of their research. "
Yes he does. There's research going on all the time. Haper doesn't hate the internet.
"Our health care could go private. Harper has spent billions upon billions, on wars, jets and prisons to be built. Harper is cutting $11 billion from the budget. We will lose services, that we are taxed through the nose for."
A real misery Mike or Snivelling Steve aren't you?
"I believe, Canada will become, the U.S.A's largest state, along with Mexico, as another U.S. state."
That won't happen. Get a grip and get a life. The majority of Canadians elected the Conservatives, the NDP made huge gains in Quebec and in Metro Vancouver. Live with it. If ya can't, move out.
I think Harper will be a disaster but I'm wondering if some Liberals will try to cross the floor and join which party? The perks of power are very intoxicating....
On another note, another great campaign run by Zubyk.
Is he gonna go Conservative next?
This is medieval! I feel that we in the 60% of Canadian voters who did NOT vote for the conservative candidates have been CAPTURED for 4 years now and will be forced to endure the ravaging; an Americanization of our dear Canadian values and programs. The realization that the Contempt of Parliament dissolution has no teeth( legal recourse) to deal with this offense is equally appalling.
And this is democracy???
There must be a better understanding of how the Charter of Rights and Freedoms can offer canadians a way to help evolve from the unfair and antiquated First Past the Post old system that many, many other really democratic countries have grown beyond.
"This is medieval! I feel that we in the 60% of Canadian voters who did NOT vote for the conservative candidates have been CAPTURED for 4 years now and will be forced to endure the ravaging; an Americanization of our dear Canadian values and programs. The realization that the Contempt of Parliament dissolution has no teeth( legal recourse) to deal with this offense is equally appalling.
And this is democracy???"
Does this apply to the many British Columbians in a given riding that went NDP that did NOT vote for them? Does this line of thinking apply when the NDP was re-elected with Glen Clark as Premier?
"There must be a better understanding of how the Charter of Rights and Freedoms can offer canadians a way to help evolve from the unfair and antiquated First Past the Post old system that many, many other really democratic countries have grown beyond."
The first past the post system is fine. What if such a system was changed that resulted in diminishing of the NDP? I doubt many here would accept that.
The Charter of RIghts and Freedoms is a foundation document, but it's comical that it is used as a crutch for everything that people don't like about the Great White North.
It's a fact. 70% did't want the NDP. 96% did't the BQ. 81% didn't want Liberals. 98% didn't want Green. What's you point anoymous 11am. Your complaint is flawed. Here's another fact, you lost again, just like life. Live with it. Will be a great 4 years. Let's start dismantling public health first. That's a must
Here comes the Enbridge pipeline and the dirty oil tankers from China. We know China bought a huge chunk, of the dirty tar sands. Harper and Campbell work very closely with China. This will be forced on the BC people. Remember, Harper reneged on his promise to eliminate green house gases, and disgraced Canada. Harper meant to support, Alberta's dirty tar sands, all along.
Well, I guess it's a wait and see situation.
Expect oil and gas wells to be drilled off BC's coast, never mind the 6.1 earthquake in the Queen Charlotte's.
The back door was also left open, for the expansion of Prosperity mine. The expansion can re-applied for. Harper and Campbell have been working on these projects.
Expect to be over run with goods from China. Harper and Campbell worked on that too. The rail yard at, Ashcroft BC is to be expanded to store China's goods, and make it easier to transport the goods, throughout Canada.
the french in quebec will squash Layton. he'll be running back to the center in no time. N deep poo will be calling the liberals soon and merge
According to one expert, the NDP was going to get squished as was going to damn well deserve it!
http://billtieleman.blogspot.com/2010/09/federal-ndp-will-pay-high-political.html
NO, Anon.1:39 p.m. The first past the post is NOT fine or do you mean "good enough".
No the first post past the post is medieval and antiquated; you know when rich gentry used to settle things with horse races. Winner take all - mentality.
Democracy in choosing representatives to take care of a nation's peoples and their interests and we deserve better more full representation.
As they used to say when the american colonies refused the Tea Tax..."No Taxation without (proportional) Representation.
"Proportional" works for me and lots of people I know... because it honours all voters who cast their vote.!
Is this blog becoming a place for anon's to vent? If you want your opinions to be seriously considered by others, at least pick a name and keep it.
The federal NDP have moved into big numbers and will influence the goings on in Ottawa. Pee Wee has more MP's but some are very right wing. If he lets them loose many of his supporters will actually rebel. My God, we lived through Lyin Brian with his massive majority and should be able to survive the guy who thinks he is king
Is this blog becoming a place for anon's to vent? If you want your opinions to be seriously considered by others, at least pick a name and keep it.
How about DLP? Can I use that? Sheesh, "anon" is a name descriptor, so I am keepin it.
The federal NDP have moved into big numbers and will influence the goings on in Ottawa. Pee Wee has more MP's but some are very right wing. If he lets them loose many of his supporters will actually rebel. My God, we lived through Lyin Brian with his massive majority and should be able to survive the guy who thinks he is king>
Wrong on many counts in fact Jack Layton has lost quite a bit of influence because of the majority, and won't have much influence as they did within a minority government environment.
If you don't like anonymous posts, don't read em.
and get a life. There's more out there than just blogging to an NDP blog.
"NO, Anon.1:39 p.m. The first past the post is NOT fine or do you mean "good enough".
No the first post past the post is medieval and antiquated; you know when rich gentry used to settle things with horse races. Winner take all - mentality."
So it would be all right for the first past the post system if the NDP in BC won government? I would agree with that.
"Democracy in choosing representatives to take care of a nation's peoples and their interests and we deserve better more full representation."
We got that. The people decided.
"As they used to say when the american colonies refused the Tea Tax..."No Taxation without (proportional) Representation.
"Proportional" works for me and lots of people I know... because it honours all voters who cast their vote.!"
It was simply "no Taxation without Represetnation". There was never any proportional representation in the equation. In fact, the U.S. does not use the proportional system.
It's also comical that the Americans tossed out the British Royalty when George III was king, but just a few weeks ago, they were going far more ga-ga over the marriage of the now Duke and Duchess of Cambridge in over the top celebrity worship than you'd ever see in the Commonwealth.
God Save The Queen (and future King!)
Hey anon 12:00 at least those of us who use our initials can use them and only them, and nothing else. Anon it seems can be on both sides of an issue which is a bit weird. Some blogs don't do anons. Bill allows it. Each person has a address even if they don't know it. Anons sort of reminds me of the folks who write notices and don't admit who they are.
are you serious? "The NDP bashed the Liberals into third place"?
The arrogant Liberal leader didn't need the NDP to bash himself into oblivion
Mr.Ignatief bashed himself to death - First by accepting the post as leader without a leadership race.
After that - everything he said was bashing someone else.
He had no grace or poise. Not much bashing was required - but really as far as I heard - it was the other parties that bashed the NDP during this election.
"Hey anon 12:00 at least those of us who use our initials can use them and only them, and nothing else. Anon it seems can be on both sides of an issue which is a bit weird. Some blogs don't do anons. Bill allows it. Each person has a address even if they don't know it. Anons sort of reminds me of the folks who write notices and don't admit who they are."
Anyone can key in initials that aren't really their own. So what?
If you're that hung up on names, then a nice walk around the Seawall would be good for you.
Enjoy the scenery.
Expect to see freedom of speech fully restored by elimination of section 13 of the Human Rights Act and the power of the CHRC to selectively prosecute those who say something that offends someone else.
Bill, Please comment on the piece by Robin Matthews on B.C.Mary's blog, today re: Elections Canada needing to weigh in on the permisability of someone(PM) who has been ruled to be in Contempt of Parliament not having the right to run for the House in the election. Is it really a nullification of this 41st election? Why have constitutional lawyers not made a pronunciation on this? I feel like a mushroom inside a manure pile. Yes, this election really stinks!
I guess I might add more to my previous question,Bill. That is after discussing this with another person that I respect; we conclude that in their haste to start the campaign, were not the Liberal,NDP and Bloc parties amiss for not following up on their withdrawing support for the 40th parliament?
After Mr. Harper went to the new Gov. General of Canada to request a call for an election; should not have also the parties that designated the leader of the gov't being in contempt of parliament requested a ruling about the position(consequences of contempt)and what would be allowed to proceed from that point?
Being that this is setting a precedent; what consequences are applied to those who do not respect parliament???
DPL or whatever fake name you are using. It's always lose lose for you. You want to learn to be a winner. Take note. Pay attention to #5 lefties.
1.Winners have dogged determination. Losers lack the ability to see any project through to a satisfactory conclusion.
2.Winners never give up, give in or surrender. Losers quit the moment things get the slightest bit difficult.
3.Winners make exceptional use of available time. Losers waste time engaging in useless activities.
4.Winners plan and map their route to success. Losers consider plans belong to builders and maps belong in glove-boxes.
5.Winners take responsibility for all outcomes. Losers shun responsibility and prefer to place blame on others.
6.Winners commence a task at the earliest opportunity. Losers procrastinate, delay and run out of time.
7.Winners learn from their own mistakes and the experience of others. Losers make the same mistakes over and over again.
8.Winners are committed to projects. Losers display whimsical interest.
9.Winners make things happen. Losers watch things happen.
10.Winners are pro-active. Losers are re-active.
11.Winners have vision and imagination. Losers are backward looking and lack initiative.
12.Winners encourage and inspire others. Losers criticize and ridicule others.
13.Winners are methodical and organized. Losers are haphazard and slipshod.
14.Winners seek information and embrace new knowledge. Losers ignore better methods, concepts and ideas.
15.Winners ask: “How can I do that?” Losers state: “How do you expect me to do that?”
16.Winners invest in income producing assets. Losers waste money on depreciating consumer goods.
17.Winners develop 5, 10, 20, 30 years of experience. Losers repeat one year of experience 5, 10, 20, 30 times.
18.Winners continually push existing limits and boundaries. Losers feel comfortable operating below their self-imposed ceilings.
19.Winners take calculated risks. Losers take hazardous gambles.
20.Winners are inspired to do more to be more. Losers conspire to do less and not be noticed.
4 more years of Harper. LOVE IT.
PLD...what a pile of tripe. Go look in a mirror for the next 12 hours. You seem to be really good at admiring yourself.
Anon:15:00 .
I figure your ramblings about a guy being a loser and how not to be one is to say the least abit weird. But then again you are telling us how lucky we are to have Harper. Get a life
Hey PLD:
Hmm! who let Tony Robbins out?
That list of winners/losers crap is a huge load of Norman Vincent Peale bullshit.
Let me give you a clue:
As with most chronic psychological problems, the attempted solution you've proposed makes the problem worse...you keep thinking those power of positive thinking mantras and you'll end up in a lot sorrier mess than this country's in.
What a clueless klutz!
DPL or whatever fake name you are using. It's always lose lose for you. You want to learn to be a winner. Take note. Pay attention to #5 lefties.
Sheesh, Tony Robbins watch out for this guy 8-)
He reads like a cliche sounding high school football coach leading
a bush league team.
I was called a liar, because I said, the internet would be controlled. Coming is, mandated surveillance of the inter-net.
I was also told, I knew nothing of fascism. I had three brothers, two brothers-in-law and a sister in the armed forces, during WW11.
Fascism and dictatorship, starts by ignoring our Constitution. Our Civil Rights and Liberties are being taken away from us. Democracy and Freedom, is a farce in this country. We are forced into situations we know are lies, deceit, and wrong.
My 17 year old brother, buried bodies in a concentration camp, with a bulldozer. A brother and a brother-in-law, were in the liberation of Holland. The Dutch people were deliberately starved to death, by fascist Nazi's. Their feelings of pity for the Dutch, overwhelmed them.
Another brother was, in the front lines in Italy, at the battle of Ortona. The Italian people were forced into a war, they did not want, by their fascist leader Mussolini. The Italian people didn't see the danger, until it was too late. We all know, Hitler and Mussolini's fate.
Talk to the WW11 veteran's, they can tell you about, the dangers of fascism and dictatorship. They can tell you stories, that will curl your hair.
When Harper sent his Conservatives, to storm Guelph University to stop students from voting, by force. When they even tried to steal the ballot boxes. That is fascism and dictatorship.
When Harper thieves our tax dollars, and gives our money to the wealthiest corporations in the world, that's fascism and dictatorship. None of this is for the good of the country, nor, the Canadian citizens.
When Campbell thieved our BCR and sold it, that is fascism. That railroad belonged to the BC citizens. Campbell thieved and sold our rivers. Those rivers also belonged to the people.
When Campbell, Hansen and Harper, FORCED the HST, onto the BC people, that's dictatorship and fascism.
Now, what do you think would happen to, Campbell, Hansen and Harper as politicians, in one of your South American country's you spouted off about?
Funny thing with the majority, most of us don't give a rats about politics. Almosts 40% don't vote. If you didn't vote for Harper which was another 40%, then really the rest of you were the real losers. G west, DLP or whatever you call yourself can complain all you want, you will never win. At least we don't have to waste money on another election the next 4 years. Hopefully more social cuts are on its way.
Those who don't vote really don't care since if they did, they would vote. Those who complain the most contribute the least. Here's to privatized health care, lower taxes, and few social programs. Every man for themselves as the lefty would say.
Friday, 6 May, 2011 11:55:00 AM PDT
Ah well, in the immortal words of Bob Dylan...
Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won’t come again
And don’t speak too soon
For the wheel’s still in spin
And there’s no tellin’ who that it’s namin’
For the loser now will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin’
We may be losers this time my friend but you're still going to be purblind stupid in the morning!
And there's nothing you can do about that either.
bob dylan??? hahaha get with the times old man. Oh forgot, your already rendered useless. Evolve or be extinct.
No wonder the old generation has plunged this country into resources suckers. New ideas are needed. Not old ideas being rehashed over and over. Lucky for us, your time will expire soon.
What's Brad gonna do now? :)
I just learned that Eleanor Grogory is supporting David Eby.
Good to know that there are still some small "l" Liberals with principles.
what are your current thoughts on the Pt Grey by-election, Bill?
Hey Ron1 - I will be writing about the Vancouver-Point Grey by-election in my column in 24 hours and The Tyee on Tuesday - but I think David Eby is a fabulous candidate who has a real shot at winning.
Christy Clark's dodging all-candidates debates is pathetic and Gordon Campbell-like - some "change" that is!
Or Stephen Harper-like if you prefer.
Wikileaks said, the NAU is on the way. Is this really true? Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, will be the North American Union? Our currency will be the Amero dollar?
I think we have all noticed, Harper is definitely pro America. We are in two of their wars. Canada has always been a, peacekeeping nation, since WW11. until Harper.
Canadians are even saying, there were only pencils to mark their ballots, which could be erased and changed. They say ballots are a legal government paper, and should have been marked in ink. I never gave the pencils a thought. I had a pen with me and used that.
I fear for Canada, with Harper at the helm. He reminds me too much of Campbell. We know Campbell twice lied, to win two different elections.
Harper and Campbell have a very close relationship. Citizens in BC are afraid, Harper will do to Canada, as Campbell did to BC.
It is strange, everywhere you go, on the net, no-one wanted Harper as P.M. Yet he won.
Anonymous said...It is strange, everywhere you go, on the net, no-one wanted Harper as P.M. Yet he won.
Sunday, 8 May, 2011 11:07:00 AM PDT
---------------
Ill tell you what is strange, its all the anonymous names here.
Jesus were all your parents so daft that they could not have at least come with some type of name or number for yous EG, running piss stream, stink like his diaper,turdy turd, dip turd, soft turd, hard turd, runny turd, center hice, etc,etc.
"Christy Clark's dodging all-candidates debates is pathetic and Gordon Campbell-like - some "change" that is! "
Disagree there. Why go to an all candidates' meeting that is packed with opposition supporters, and it turns into a circus? The idea is that Eby wanted face off against her on his "home ice".
Or Stephen Harper-like if you prefer.
Better for the candidate to meet constituents without the yelling from opposition supporters. I'd say to Christy, go to one all candidate's meeting that has fair and equal speaking time.
All candidate meetings are passe, even though being NDP is in vogue.
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