Advice for Gregor Robertson & Peter Ladner - how each can win & vulnerabilities

24 hours newspaper has set up an election blog for the November 15 province-wide municipal vote.

Here's the first installment on the Vancouver city mayoralty election contest - advice to Non-Partisan Association candidate Peter Ladner and Vision Vancouver candidate Gregor Robertson, printed in 24 hours Friday, followed by my additional advice on the 24 hours blog:

You can also find the advice my 24 hours columnist colleagues Erin Airton, Alex Tsakumis and Ian King gave to Robertson and Ladner on the blog.

Free advice for Peter, Gregor

By Bill Tieleman, 24 hours columnist

Non-Partisan Association mayoralty candidate Peter Ladner wins if …

...the Vancouver election turnout is low due to voter fatigue or just disinterest.

The NPA is one of Canada’s most successful political parties because Vancouver doesn’t have a ward or constituency system and because the wealthier part of town votes in disproportionately higher numbers than the rest of the city.

That means a low turnout is the NPA’s big advantage.

Ladner also wins if voters really don’t care about homelessness or think he and the NPA have done enough about it for a city government and believe it is instead a provincial and federal responsibility.

Vision Vancouver mayoralty candidate Gregor Robertson wins if …

...the election turnout is moderate to high and voters are fed up with increasing homelessness and an NPA government that doesn’t seem to be able to make any progress on the city’s biggest issue.

The mayoralty nomination race between Robertson and Coun. Raymond Louie and a hotly contested council nomination race made Vision the largest civic party in Canada with 16,000 members.

And a recent debate on homelessness drew 1,000 citizens. That may indicate voters are motivated for change and that Robertson’s plan to end homelessness by 2015 – however difficult – is what they want.


From 24 hours municipal election blog:

Peter Ladner’s biggest vulnerability is .....

.....the NPA government’s record over the past three years because of a lack of accomplishments.

Gregor Robertson’s uses a telling attack in debates – “Is Vancouver better off after three years of NPA rule?” Homelessness is demonstrably worse, the Project Civil City brainchild of Mayor Sam Sullivan has no discernable results and Ladner himself successfully challenged Sullivan for the NPA nomination because the party was “headed for the rocks.”

Ladner also has to avoid the mixed messages he started with, saying that first homelessness and then later that crime was Vancouver’s biggest issue.

Gregor Robertson’s biggest vulnerability is.....

.....his recent background as a New Democratic Party MLA for Vancouver-Fairview, because Peter Ladner has repeatedly said a former NDP MLA can’t work cooperatively with the Gordon Campbell B.C. Liberal government or the Stephen Harper federal Conservative government.

If that convinces voters, Ladner’s studied avoidance of direct federal or provincial party support could be an advantage

Robertson also has to stop a tendency to muse about contentious policy issues in public, such as considering a bicycle lane on the Granville Street bridge. Candidates who muse, lose.