Thursday, September 20, 2007

Ipsos Poll Detailed Results Not Good News for BC NDP

The latest Ipsos poll on BC politics has been presented as a "no change" story, with the BC Liberals continuing at the same level as previously, 46% to the BC NDP's 36% - a significant but not insurmountable 10 point gap. The leaderless Green Party polls at 15%.

However, a look at the Ipsos detailed tables uncovers some bigger problems for the BC NDP.

In the breakdown for the Lower Mainland, the Liberal lead grows to 49% to 34% for the NDP, and the sample size of 411 surveyed makes it statistically decent. A 15 point gap is enormous and would spell deep trouble for Vancouver, Surrey and Burnaby NDP MLAs if an election were held today.

The Greens hold 14% in the Lower Mainland.

In the Interior the Liberals lead 45% to 33% NDP, with the Greens at 16%. The smaller sample size of 152 is less reliable.

Only on Vancouver Island do the NDP best the Liberals, with a 46% NDP to 36% Liberal score, with the Greens at 17%. A small sample of 88 is even less statistically dependable, however.

In other demographic breakdowns, the Liberals lead in almost every category, including males 50% to 32%, females 42% to 40%, age 55+ by 51% to 37%, 35-54 year olds by 47% to 37% and 18-34 year olds by 37% to 35%.

In other education and income categories, the NDP only leads in the under $40,000 group, by 38% to 30% for the Liberals.

None of these factors are insurmountable but the challenge facing the BC NDP and leader Carole James is considerable to overcome the substantial lead the BC Liberals and Gordon Campbell hold within many different demographic subsets.

13 comments:

Budd Campbell said...

Liberal support increases with age, while NDP support is flat. Women are split, but men are decisively in favour of the Liberals.

The gender split is contrary to traditional Canadian political alignements where in decades past the NDP did better among men because of the support from manual workers, many of them unionized. Carole James needs to reach out to this group and assure them that she too believes that men working in traditional industries are people with valid and serious concerns, not the least of them a keen desire to keep the economy, including the private business economy, growing rapidly.

I would like to know if Bill Tieleman thinks Carole James or anyone else from the NDP can say something like the following without receiving immediate howls of outrage from the party's true believers:

"Canadians can enjoy high levels of econmic growth and job creation, with rising wages and profits, and still maintain a livable environment and preserve our agricultural and green spaces."

Bill Tieleman said...

Thanks Budd - I don't see why the statement you propose would be that big a deal. Many economists and environmental advocates - like Al Gore - are arguing that green economy is profitable, that old thinking and old economy is not.

As to the gender gap however, I have to disagree. The NDP in recent memory going back many years has had a female voter advantage, not a male one. The unionized male segment definitely is more predisposed to vote NDP than non-union but that doesn't overcome the gender gap.

Interestingly, the Ipsos poll does not have a union/non-union breakdown of voters.

A. G. Tsakumis said...

Bill Tealeaves!

The spread is not insurmountable????

What the hell were you quaffing in Spain??

The Lower Mainland, particularly Vancouver and Burnaby (you can forget Surrey with the Watts Wave, and the new constituency, score two more for the Libs)--the 9800 votes needed to rescramble last election into an NDP win (shudder!)have evaporated thx to Carole's dunce cap fitting so well.

But I'll bet you a lifetime's supply of golf balls who has a hell of a time winning his own riding if he's dumb enough to give away prime Vancouver property to satisfy some nefarious claim.....

Anonymous said...

The Liberals have recently capitalized strategically in finding wedge issues that make the NDP public perception look bad. First TFN and now Gateway. I also believe that the caucus strategists have led the caucus into innumerable traps that anyone thinking somewhat strategically could see a mile away. As a supporter, this is highly frustrating and aggravating. I'm sick of DeJong and Falcon sitting there shoving it down my throat through the media. Hell, they have a huge cost overrun with the Convention Centre and are being allowed to skate freely on it. Particularly coming from a government who is "business like."

The polling numbers to me don't reflect anything whatsoever to do with Carole's leadership. More to the point is the direction that the party has taken in the last while, and that to me, comes from head office and the caucus strategists.

They are also more indicative of the media covering up the huge cost over runs on the convention centre, and not holding the government to account for those overruns. After all, Campbell and Falcon continue to play up the Fast Ferries.

Convention should be interesting in November.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps when people pay attention and recognize the horrendous debt load we're going to face due to the out-of-control spending on the Olympics, they'll realize what a manipulator Campbell is, and vote him out of office.

One can only hope.

Anonymous said...

Is that Adrian Dix I see in the wings, stage-left?

Anonymous said...

Campbell is like the football coach that has stolen the best plays from all of the other coaches. He has taken and damned near stolen traditional NDP positions and now he owns them. He has done the same thing to the Green party platform in some areas so is it really any surprise that his BC Liberals lead in the polls ? The difference is; his Liberal supporters let him get away with it. As long as the Liberals are in power they could care less what their Premier does.

On the other side of the fence, every time Carole James tries to reach out she gets undermined by either her own party or even her own caucus. Damned if you do, and damned if you don’t exactly like what is happening over this treaty issue vs ALR lands.

Budd Campbell said...

"As to the gender gap however, I have to disagree."

I wasn't thinking of recent years, but rather the standard 1960s and 1970s through to early 1980s situation for the NDP. Probably the NDP has been weaker among men than women since the late 1980s, but someone should check with a polling firm or the Canadian Election Studies.

I have to say I get really annoyed when I see NDP "analysts" talking about the NDP's relative advantage among women when confronted by results such as these. To anyone not blinded by ideology or crippled by chronic and habitual looserism, a set of numbers such as 42:40 among women and 50:32 among men means that the Liberals enjoy a whopping lead among men, and that the NDP is being rejected by men specifically.

How the NDP's "strategists" can overlook this blindingly obvious fact I simply have no idea. They are going to have to do something about their weakness among male voters, or else be prepared to face the inevitable consequences.

Back to my proposed quote, Bill. If you really believe that Carole James can utter the "p" for profit word as part of an approved list of economic benefits without facing revolts from behind the curtains then you have more confidence in the maturity and sophtistication of NDP activists and even elected members than I do. If Svend Robinson were on hand for such a statement, do you not think he would immediately rise to his feet and condemn the "mushy middle" in stentorian tones reminiscent of an Old Testament prophet?

Anonymous said...

I'd go after the ethnic vote. There are more people of Chinese and Indian heritage who are victims of capitalism rather than benefactors. Just start printing what the NDP stands for, the history of the social justice movement in the Chinese and Punjabi press and battle those ethnic Liberal organizers.

Anonymous said...

"Campbell is like the football coach that has stolen the best plays from all of the other coaches. He has taken and damned near stolen traditional NDP positions and now he owns them. He has done the same thing to the Green party platform in some areas so is it really any surprise that his BC Liberals lead in the polls ? The difference is; his Liberal supporters let him get away with it. As long as the Liberals are in power they could care less what their Premier does."

It's the old blueprint to success that Trudeau and others in the Federal Liberals used to win election after election. His strategists got it a bit when they figured out that "in your face" neo conservatism is a fast way out of power. To go and lose 1/2 the seats you had won previously (approximately), and to totally "stay the course" on that path would lead to annilhation in 2009.

So what do you do if you're Campbell, simple. Act like your playing ball, moderate your stance, and plunder from the other sides plums. Of course use the feel good things to hide the fact that you're still selling out the province to your friends and supporters. For example, start huge mega projects, but pay off your friends with the P3 model. Claim all the investment you've made in infrastructure that will last for generations to come, except for the fact that generations to come will still be paying for them.

Find wedge issues like ALR, treaty rights, etc and play them hard to the public. That way your opposition looks like its in constant turmoil with itself, allowing you to go unopposed on the issue, publicly.

And lastly, capitalize on an opposition who has some naive notion of changing the way politics are done in Victoria. Look like you're willing to play ball and then totally cut the knees out from under them time after time after time, because their guard is down.

For the past while, whoever or whomever devises tactics and strategy for the BCNDP has walked into every single one of the minefields that have been laid out for them. And with less than 2 years left before the next provincial election, things are not where they should be, the focus is more on party rifts on policy, rather than on strategy for trying to win government. I am personally amazed that with the momentum gained from 2005, that the party has managed to fumble it all away, and play right into Gordo's hands.

If a lay person can see what's going on and what the plan is for the Liberals to win the 2009 election and gain more seats, why can't the people who develop strategy and policy within the BCNDP???

Budd Campbell said...

If a lay person can see what's going on and what the plan is for the Liberals to win the 2009 election and gain more seats, why can't the people who develop strategy and policy within the BCNDP???

A good question. The answer, I believe, is that most NDP strategists, to the degree that there is such a thing, are ideologically constrained to begin with, and then have been conditioned by repeated defeats to see things in essentially defeatist terms.

Chris said...

Budd - you're really annoying. The only defeatist attitude I see here is yours. You have to be the grumpiest old man I've seen on this blog. My biggest blogging pet peeve is commenters who hijack posts with long-winded responses. If you have that much to say, start your own blog.

I think the NDP is lagging in the polls because they haven't been able to take a stand on any of the relevant issues to come up lately. The only positive press they had all summer was about the Cambie line businesses suffering. Right now Carole James needs to show some leadership, and take a stand against Gateway. It might not be universally popular, but at least it will show some backbone (seriously lacking from the NDP of late).

Budd Campbell said...

Budd - you're really annoying. The only defeatist attitude I see here is yours. You have to be the grumpiest old man I've seen on this blog. My biggest blogging pet peeve is commenters who hijack posts with long-winded responses.

ROTFLMAO! You know something, Chris? I haven't heard that cliche "hijack" since the last time I was banned on babble by Michelle, ... or was it audra? ... at the insistence of scout, who's one of their pets. At babble, they're happy to allow libel against real people, but not hijacking of threads!