tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35935973.post2543721031653267695..comments2023-07-25T02:39:44.615-07:00Comments on Bill Tieleman: How 'Get Out the Vote' Wins Elections With Under 50% Support - the GOTV SurpriseBill Tielemanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03304971610140279157noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35935973.post-74422845000963876252015-10-12T15:48:58.502-07:002015-10-12T15:48:58.502-07:00I agree GOTV is the most effective electoral tool...I agree GOTV is the most effective electoral tool; it's also why the Liberals and NDP, for example, could not in any practical way announce a coalition before the votes are counted: every party depends on heightened dedication and high morale amongst their volunteers, the ones who actually do the door-knocking, and morale is best maintained by undiluted partisanship. <br /><br /> SV has no real GOTV machinery, because SV is ostensibly non-partisan. A conspicuous number of people I meet are genuinely interested in SV; they feel strongly enough about ditching Harper to GTOVO (get-their-own-vote-out). Granted, self motivation isn't as reliable as partisan motivation, but a few factors argue for decisive strategic voting.<br /><br />The Cons have been so bad, many voters are being attracted to SV like never before. Granted, multiplying a tiny traditional number by double or treble is still a small number, but the number of strategic votes needed is relatively small compared to the numbers party-GOTV drives are dealing with---just enough to tip the balance away from the Cons, which, in tight races, is probably a smallish number of votes. SV hasn't figured much in previous elections, but this one is different, sure to attract anti-Harper voters, and the numbers don't need to be so big to make a difference. SV will always be the smaller contribution.<br /><br />There's another attractive element to SV: it addresses the common complaint that one's vote doesn't count for much in the big picture; but it's easy for even the dullest voter to understand votes weighing in around the tipping point are very potent---certainly more so than throwing one's vote onto a pile that has already big enough to win, or onto a pile that has virtually no hope of winning (it would be mischievous to note that Green votes, almost everywhere committed to a losing candidate, are a type of SV that wins Cons seats). Everyone knows someone who's hostile to politics, as thoughtless and lazy-minded as that might be, often attempting to hide light-thinking on this or that policy with expressions like,"they're all a bunch of crooks," or, "what good does my vote do?" and usually manifest in not voting at all. SV is a two-for-one relief for such anxieties and antipathies in the sense that it is fundamentally negative, it is simple (understanding of particular policy planks needn't be great), and, as mentioned, it provides a stronger sense of accomplishment to the vindictive election avoider because it's relatively potent.<br /><br /> SV provides opportunity for first-time voters who previously avoided electoral participation (usually due to a general, unexamined antipathy to politics), meaning SV may contribute to an increase in turnout which we know doesn't favour the Cons.<br /><br /> Greens have an additional strategy to consider: any outcome that isn't a Con win increases the chance of getting electoral reform, both big opposition parties having endorsed it; Greens, who have traditionally split the vote in the Cons' favour, can significantly advance toward their goal---and existential need---of proportional representation by availing of SV. Indeed, Greens will probably make up the bulk of strategic voters because they get, in effect, two highly desirable benefits. Of course, Harper gets re-elected, no electoral reform anytime soon, and quite likely some hard feelings against the fledgling party it could well do without. <br /><br />Naturally the SV nut to crack is accurate polling needed to discern, in tight races, who exactly the SV choice is. This is SV's biggest weakness; however, a good number of ridings have a clear enough spread to easily decide who's the SV candidate.<br /><br />It almost goes without saying that partisan GOTV efforts are absolutely essential for partisan success. Yet SV will contribute in its small but important way.Scotty on denmannoreply@blogger.com